Ayşegül Kayaoğlu

Thursday-Friday 🙃

Just received my teaching evaluation results for the “Causal Inference Methods in Economics” course I designed and taught this semester at the University of Osnabrück— feeling grateful and happy! 💛

#Economics #teaching #Academia #Germany #causality

Without immediate intervention, the last reporters in Gaza will die July 21, 2025 AFP has been working with 1 writer, 3 photographers and 6 videographers, all freelance, in the Gaza Strip since its staff journalists left in 2024. Along with a few others, they are now the only ones left to report what is happening in the Gaza Strip. The international press has been banned from entering the territory for nearly two years. We refuse to watch them die. One of them, Bashar, has been working with AFP since 2010, first as a fixer, then freelance photographer, and since 2024, as lead photographer. On July 19th he managed to post a message on Facebook: “I no longer have the strength to work for the media. My body is thin and I can’t work anymore.” Bashar, 30, works & lives in the same conditions as all Gazans, moving from one refugee camp to another under Israeli bombings. For > a year he’s lived in utter destitution, working at extreme risk to his life. Hygiene is a major issue for him, with recurring bouts of severe intestinal illness. Since Feb, Bashar’s been living in the ruins of his home in Gaza City with his mother, 4 brothers & sisters and the family of one of his brothers. Their house is devoid of any furnishings, except a few cushions. On Sunday morning, he reported that one of his brothers had “fallen, due to hunger.” Even though these journalists receive a monthly salary from AFP, it’s no longer enough to buy food, or they have to pay completely exorbitant prices. The banking system has collapsed, and those who exchange money via online bank accounts charge a commission of up to 40%. AFP no longer has the ability to provide them with a vehicle and there is not enough fuel to allow these journalists to travel for their reporting. Driving a car means becoming a target for Israeli airstrikes. AFP reporters therefore travel on foot or by donkey cart. (alt txt continued in next post)

A horrifying statement published today by the Editorial Committee of the Agence France-Presse (AFP) news agency.

"Without immediate intervention, the last reporters in Gaza will die"

Translation from French to English by @cnorristrent.bsky.social:

This is the dream conference for any economist working on migration. 👇🏼

🆕📢 New publication in the Journal of Refugee Studies!

How does exposure to refugees shape local attitudes in the world's largest refugee-hosting country?

👇 Key findings from my article on Türkiye 🧵
🔗 doi.org/10.1093/jrs/...

What happens when humanitarian aid is cut or delayed? Humanitarian aid systems are under mounting pressure, with key donors like the US and UK cutting funding despite growing needs. New research in one of the world’s largest refugee camps shows that aid ...

🆕What happens when humanitarian aid is cut or delayed?

A 20% aid cut in one of the world's largest refugee camp didn’t just reduce what and how much refugees eat; it also triggered a cascade of effects across households and markets. voxdev.org/topic/instit...

with Vittorio Bruni and @wfp.org

Refugee exposure and attitudes toward refugees in a developing country context: evidence from Türkiye Abstract. Despite hosting large refugee populations, causal evidence on how refugee exposure shapes local attitudes in developing countries remains scarce.

8/
Read the full article in the Journal of Refugee Studies:

📄 "Refugee Exposure and Attitudes Toward Refugees in a Developing Country Context: Evidence from Türkiye"
🔗 doi.org/10.1093/jrs/...

#Migration #Refugees #Türkiye #SocialCohesion #JRS #Development

7/
This is the first causal study from a developing country hosting the largest protracted refugee population.

It speaks to broader Global South challenges—where refugee numbers are high, but resources and capacities are limited.

6/
Policy implications?

➤ Job creation for low-income host communities
➤ Targeted interventions to reduce resentment and misinformation

These are vital for sustainable integration and social cohesion.

5/
Contrary to the "contact hypothesis", more frequent contact with refugees does not reduce hostility.

Instead, consistent with the "integration paradox", closer contact amplifies cultural tensions in urban areas.

4/
Interestingly, religiosity mitigates some negative attitudes. But even respondents who view Syrians as "religious brothers" support exclusionary policies like encampment.

This points to a complex interaction of identity, empathy, and exposure.

3/
Economic concerns (especially perceived competition in informal labour markets and overburdened public services) are strong drivers of negative attitudes.

Cultural alienation and feelings of insecurity further exacerbate these sentiments.

2/
I find that exposure to refugees significantly increases antirefugee sentiments—especially around exclusion, insecurity, and economic burden.

But notably, helping behaviour remains high even among the most exposed communities.

1/
Despite hosting over 3 million Syrian refugees, causal evidence on how refugee exposure affects local attitudes in Türkiye—and in the Global South more broadly—remains scarce. My study fills this gap using an IV strategy and a rich survey data.

🆕📢 New publication in the Journal of Refugee Studies!

How does exposure to refugees shape local attitudes in the world's largest refugee-hosting country?

👇 Key findings from my article on Türkiye 🧵
🔗 doi.org/10.1093/jrs/...

How economics has changed

If it looks like the intervention you evaluated didn't work, what does that really mean? blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva... My summary of a taxonomy by Glewwe & Muralidharan #throwbackthursday

Nobel prize winner Orhan Pamuk explains what is going on in Turkey. 👇🏼

Many of the world's best and brightest young people once came to study in the United States, fueling our global innovation powerhouse.

They now know that if they come, they can be seized by secret police off the street, at any moment—without charges, trial, or appeal, with absolute discretion.

Day 6 of the #Turkey protests. This is from the Istanbul Teknik University Maçka.

Security locked the doors of the building to prevent the students from joining the demonstration outside.

Students started to climb out of the windows to join the protests.

It is a very sad day for Turkey and for everyone who had still hope for a democratic change. 😔

This study investigates the causal impact of #refugee exposure on local attitudes & #migration policy preferences in developing countries, particularly in areas with high concentrations of refugees.

Read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Subscribe: www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en...

The Demographic and Heath Survey program received their USAID termination email last night

www.linkedin.com/posts/caren-...

That’s such a loss! 😔

MoPED Workshop Berlin Meeting on the Political Economy of Development (MoPED) -- The MoPED workshop offers an opportunity for scholars who focus on the political economy of development, broadly defined, to build...

🚨 please share!

We will be running our annual workshop on the political economy of development in Berlin @wzb.bsky.social in June.

This is a really fun workshop doing deep reads of a small number of new papers.

Call for papers / participants below! ⬇️

www.wzb.eu/en/events/mo...

Research Staff - Postdoctoral position - Re-shaping Attitudes about Refugees and Gender Minorities in Spain and Portugal The Faculty of Social and Human Sciences at the University of Deusto is seeking a motivated and highly qualified Postdoctoral Researcher to join the project Re-shaping Attitudes about Refugees and Gen...

📢 Hiring! I am seeking a Postdoc for the project Re-shaping Attitudes about Refugees & Gender Minorities in Spain & Portugal
📍 Bilbao, Spain
📆 12 months (+6m extension possible)
🔍 PhD & strong quantitative skills (esp. survey experiments)
🔗 Details: deusto.talentclue.com/en/node/1136...

Kristof: "Musk has a net worth greater than the poorest billion people on Earth. ..since the election, Musk’s personal net worth has grown by far more than the entire annual budget of USAID., which in any case accounts for less than 1 percent of the federal budget." www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/o...

GLD newsletter February 2025.

Latest News from GLD!

- 2024 Annual Report published
- New Fellows announced
- Upcoming event: #Syria Policy Roundtable
- Podcast on Decentralization in the MENA
- New working papers on #Forum #Pluralism & #Refugee #Attitudes
- Spring workshops kicked off!

Read all news: mailchi.mp/gld.gu.se/gl...

With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Simone Bertoli, we are thrilled to announce the Call for Papers for the

3rd edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration

on 23-24 June 2025 @CERDI, Clermont-Ferrand, France.

Submit until 23 February 2025 on economig2025.sciencesconf.org

What a photograph.