Jose Pinilla

U.K. to Raise Defense Spending to 2.5% of G.D.P. by 2027, Starmer Says (Gift Article) Prime Minister Keir Starmer set out a timeline to increase British spending on defense, now 2.3 percent. He is scheduled to meet with President Trump this week.

Buried lede: The UK is cutting development aid by 40%.

"Mr. Starmer said the change would be funded by cutting overseas development aid from 0.5 percent of gross domestic product to 0.3 percent, adding that he regretted the reduction."

Ugh.

Optimally Generate Policy-Based Evidence Before Scaling Social scientists have increasingly turned to the experimental method to understand human behavior. One critical issue that makes solving social problems difficult is "scaling" the idea from

I just finished a scaling panel. My main thesis was that we need to move scaling from a feature of economic systems to a distinct object of study. This can happen through Option C Thinking, as I discuss in my recent Nature study
ideas.repec.org/p/feb/natura...

🆕 How the price of agricultural inputs constrain farmers in Bangladesh

Today on VoxDev, Mai Mahmoud (J-PAL) shows that without subsidies, the price of agricultural inputs is actually a barrier to technological adoption in Bangladesh: voxdev.org/topic/agricu...

I have an op-ed in the NYT today about how to reduce crime.

The key idea, based on decades of strong research evidence: focus on increasing the probability of getting caught, not the punishment.

www.nytimes.com/2024/12/07/o...

"Exposure to illegal labor markets during childhood leads to the formation of industry-specific human capital at an early age, putting children on a criminal life path." www.micaelasviatschi.com/wp-content/u... Evidence from Peru and the coca industry

One thing I notice is that Google Docs are easier to share. Gmail reminds you to share access when sending links; you can ask for access to a file instead of Box telling you it doesn't exist; you can easily see who has what kind of access.

BREAKING NEWS!

One Laptop Per Child still doesn't work (in fact it may be actually be harmful for learning)

publications.iadb.org/en/laptops-l...

Welcome new followers! It's so nice to see this site start to take off.

Longer posts soon, but if you're interested in "natural experiment, long-run effects" style econ history, check out my papers: www.corybsmith.com/research

The above mostly study the US, with upcoming work on Pakistan!

Education during commodity booms in low-income countries: Lessons from history Commodity specialisation in Colombia during the late 19th and 20th centuries had negative impacts on the demand for education during a surge in global demand for coffee

Commodity specialisation in #Colombia during the late 19th and 20th centuries negatively impacted the demand for education during a surge in global demand for coffee.

Today on VoxDev, Irina España-Eljaiek & María José Fuentes-Vásquez outline their research: voxdev.org/topic/educat...