Leon Simons

What does November mean on a geological timescale?

Because of the Milankovitch Cycles, November was during peak NH summer at times.

Of course, by about 3.2 W/m²

The additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere now cause about 33 Hiroshima bombs per second of additional heat to be radiated back down to Earth.

The Earth's Energy Imbalance is now ~10 Hiroshimas per second.

But who's counting.
bsky.app/profile/leon...

Here in CO₂ equivalents (transliterating atmospheric concentration changes of other greenhouse gases to an equivalent CO₂ concentration change).

This makes it look even more steep, as the CO₂ forcing is logarithmic, increasing by about 4 W/m² for every doubling of the concentration.

The total greenhouse gas forcing is now 4.1 W/m² (according to IPCC methodology), which equals about 33.2 Hiroshima bombs per second.

Aerosols cause cooling and lower the net forcing.

And a hotter Earth (about +1.5°C the past year) radiates more heat to space, as the above NASA CERES data shows.

I wish people understood the basic units that drive the climate to change:

-A forcing is what forces the climate to change.
-Leading to Earth absorbing more sunlight than heat is radiated to space.
-1.21 watt = 1.21 joule per second.
-Averaged over Earth's 510 TRILLION square meters area.

Or 👇

You can point out that they pretend aerosols don't decrease, while they are inherently linked to fossil fuel CO₂ emissions.

You don't have to be a scientist to call out half-truths and misinformation from those who (should) know better.

This summed that up:

'protesters heckled her by chanting “Kamala, Kamala, you can’t hide, we won’t vote for genocide.”'

www.c-span.org/video/?c5127...

See:

The problem with forcing based estimates, is that this doesn't take into account the recent aerosol forcing increase.

The IPCC methodology assumes natural aerosols from e.g. forest fires are anthropogenic (but their CO₂ isn't..).

@drjamesehansen.bsky.social ea is excluded:
bsky.app/profile/leon...

The problem with forcing based estimates, is that this doesn't take into account the recent aerosol forcing increase.

The IPCC methodology assumes natural aerosols from e.g. forest fires are anthropogenic (but their CO₂ isn't..).

@drjamesehansen.bsky.social ea is excluded:
bsky.app/profile/leon...

Note that the 3-year average (with on average an negative ENSO) has now already reached +1.5°C in both the @berkeleyearth.org and @ecmwf.int ERA5 datasets, with others close behind.

Those are 30-year linear extrapolations.

I've asked them a while back to add an option to change the time period and/or extrapolations and was told they'd look into it, but it still hasn't happened yet.

At least they made the code available, which we used to make this:
bsky.app/profile/leon...

Even during a La Niña, the rate is still accelerating (third-order derivative).

See the updated nonlinear 30-year trend extrapolation bringing +2°C even closer.

As Risk = Likelihood x Impact, this is a BFD (Big F*cking Deal).

Most experts stick to playing with straight rulers however. 🤷‍♂️

Starting soon!

YouTube video by Operaatio Arktis Dr. James E. Hansen - The truth about global warming, ATLAS25

Full talk, at @operaatioarktis.bsky.social:

youtu.be/fsnv53HVC2o?...

YouTube video by Operaatio Arktis Dr. James E. Hansen - The truth about global warming, ATLAS25

Here you are, thank you for reminding me to include it:

youtu.be/fsnv53HVC2o?...

False hope and vested interests will get a lot of people killed, as it has for centuries.

Loud voices in the climate community ignore the actual science and constantly use cherry-picking, strawmann arguments and ad hominems to try and deny the undeniable.

Pretending that we have been exaggerating, while it's likely even worse than we feared (again, based on data).

It's been quite something to see one of the world's leading climate scientists, James Hansen, being vilified the past years for presenting data showing the rapid acceleration of global and regional warming, associated with continued greenhouse gas emissions and rapid reduction of air pollution.

COP30 & "The Plan" For Climate Action YouTube video by Climate Chat

Sunday 11/30 at 10am on Climate Chat: COP30 & "The Plan" for Climate Action, with host Dan Miller.
#COP30 #ClimateAction #climatecrisisis
@leonsimons.bsky.social @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social
youtube.com/live/9iM5rgx...

Guy could still win this.. 🙃🥲

Could result in a new record annual low.

Today is Wally Broecker his birthday.
It's always humbling to read words written by great minds.

This is from before I was even born:

Quick graph on extratropical and tropical Sea Surface Temperature change.

The Northern Hemisphere extratropics have now (permanently?) surpassed the tropical El Niño peak!

12-month running averages, using @ecmwf.int ERA5 data:

That didn't last very long...
As La Niña subsides, global Sea Surface Temperatures are back at pre-2023 records levels:

It was still very high, but relatively lower than recent years due to strong Outgoing Longwave Radiation from record high global temperatures.

Even with very high global temperatures, Earth's Energy Imbalance is reaching record high levels again.

See the most recent 3 months of NASA CERES (climatology corrected) data:

No, +1.7 W/m² was the 4 year average ASR anomaly from the first 4 years of NASA CERES data.
I centered it at the (absolute value of) start the Earth's Energy Imbalance observations.

I know it's not perfect, but I thought this was the best way to show it all in one graph.

Feedback is welcome

Unfortunately I don't see much evidence of the Paris agreement resulting in significant reduction in GHG emissions.

I have yet to see an attribution study of a relative decrease of CO₂ emissions from SSP5-8.5. E.g. correcting for COVID and the energy wars.

Collision is practically unavoidable: