Foreign Affairs

The Promise and Peril of Recognizing Palestine Can a two-state solution still emerge from a one-state reality?

“Recognition cannot be an end unto itself,” write @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @stelhami.bsky.social. “It is easier to affirm the existence of a Palestinian state than to do the extraordinarily difficult things it would take to truly create one.”

Taiwan’s Democracy Is in Trouble How polarization undermines security.

Taiwan’s deep polarization is putting the island’s security at risk, warn Lev Nachman and Wei-Ting Yen. “Right now, Taiwanese leaders are prioritizing defeating one another over defending the nation.”

Taiwan’s Democracy Is in Trouble How polarization undermines security.

For @foreignaffairs.com, @poscwty1.bsky.social and I write about how polarization in Taiwan has reached dangerous levels. Partisan politics needs an off-ramp, both for the sake of Taiwan’s national security, and its ability to function as a democracy.

www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...

Israel’s Squandered Victory Gains against Iran won’t translate into regional peace.

If Netanyahu maintains his current course toward the Palestinians, he will risk creating a forever war in Gaza—and hindering any further progress toward normalization with Israel’s Arab neighbors, writes @dassakaye.bsky.social.

The Limits of Putin’s Balancing Act What the Kremlin will sacrifice in pursuit of victory in Ukraine.

Putin is determined to win the war in Ukraine at any cost—even if it means sacrificing the calm in Russian society “that he has so painstakingly fashioned,” writes Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman.

Climate Policy Is Still Good for Business The green transition will survive cuts to U.S. subsidies.

Despite the “hacksaw the Trump administration has taken to the green transition,” decarbonization remains possible—and it is still good for business, argues @nilskupzok.bsky.social.

On the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Ashley Tellis, Nirupama Rao, and Dhruva Jaishankar debate India’s pathways to power.

Listen to the conversation here: fam.ag/476mOHt

How to Lose the Drone War American military doctrine is stifling innovation.

“To take advantage of the drone revolution, the United States’ civilian and defense leaders will have to more fundamentally question the ideas that have long shaped the U.S. military and its campaigns,” write @jackieschneider.bsky.social and Julia Macdonald.

Climate Policy Is Still Good for Business The green transition will survive cuts to U.S. subsidies.

Is the climate strategy behind the IRA dead after the GOP's massive cuts to its clean energy subsidies?

In my new piece for @foreignaffairs.com, I argue: No!

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The Global Threat to LGBTQ Rights The fate of legal protections is tied to the fate of democracy.

Threats to democracy and threats to LGBTQ rights often go hand in hand—and both can strengthen authoritarian control, writes ‪Ari Shaw.

Taiwan’s Achilles’ Heel Why the island should shore up its energy security and resurrect its nuclear reactors.

Taiwan’s denuclearization efforts have undermined the island’s energy security—and it is time for the island to change course, argue Jim Ellis and Steven Chu.

What Kind of Great Power Will India Be? Debating New Delhi’s grand strategy.

Will India succeed in building a multipolar international order? Four experts—Nirupama Rao, Dhruva Jaishankar, Lisa Curtis, and Ashley Tellis—weigh in:

The Promise and Peril of Recognizing Palestine Can a two-state solution still emerge from a one-state reality?

“If wealthy and influential European countries joined the roster of states recognizing Palestine, it would signal a crumbling of Israel’s firewall against meaningful international pressure,” write @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @stelhami.bsky.social.

Netanyahu Is Spoiling Trump’s Chance for Peace America can still use its leverage to end the war in Gaza.

If Trump wants to be a genuine peacemaker in the Middle East, he must broker a permanent cease-fire in Gaza that ends Netanyahu’s territorial ambitions and addresses Palestinians’ right to self-determination, argues @zaha-hassan.bsky.social.

What Does China Want in Ukraine? Beijing’s ambivalence is limiting its role.

“Contrary to Beijing’s wishes, the war in Ukraine has further entrenched great-power antagonisms among China, Russia, the United States, and Europe. No one has benefited from this outcome—least of all Ukraine.”

The Right Way to Wield America’s Economic Power Without statecraft, even the most powerful tools will be self-defeating.

To maintain the United States’ economic leadership, Washington must come up with a clear doctrine that guides the use of sanctions, tariffs, and export controls, argues Daleep Singh.

How India Can Placate America In a reversal, it’s time for New Delhi to be generous with Washington.

“Trump has ended—or at least paused—the U.S. policy of strategic altruism. If successive U.S. leaders refrained from asking, ‘What can India do for us?’ the current administration is shouting this question from the rooftops.”

Is America Breaking the Global Economy? What an age of economic uncertainty will mean for the world.

Under Trump, the United States is acting like a country that desperately needs revenue, writes ‪Mohamed El-Erian. “The longer this behavior continues, the greater the risk that the American economy will be beset by problems more common to developing countries.”

The Intifada That Hasn’t Arrived Why have Israel’s recent wars led to little terrorism and no mass uprising?

Israel’s aggressive approach to Gaza and the wider Middle East has been effective in preventing traditional terrorist attacks—but this strategy will “invariably harm civilians and reduce the chances of a political settlement in the long term,” writes Daniel Byman.

Liberalism Doomed the Liberal International Order A less legalistic system would help protect democracies.

Stacie Goddard, Ronald Krebs, Christian Kreuder-Sonnen, and Berthold Rittberger explain why the liberal international order is decaying—and consider how countries can establish a new, more resilient system:

Why Force Fails to Stop Nuclear Proliferation Only diplomacy can ultimately keep Iran from getting the bomb.

Operation Midnight Hammer did not fatally damage Iran’s nuclear program—but it did buy the Trump administration time to negotiate a “long-term strategic solution to Iranian nuclearization,” argues David Minchin Allison.

How a World Order Ends Just because an order is in irreversible decline does not mean that chaos or calamity is inevitable. But if the deterioration is managed poorly, catastrophe could well follow.

“It is one thing for a world order to unravel slowly; it is quite another for the country that had a large hand in building it to take the lead in dismantling it,” wrote Richard Haass in a 2018 essay.

Tell Me How This Trade War Ends The right way to build a new global economic order.

To build a new global economic order that benefits both Washington and its allies, “the Trump administration must look beyond securing simple, short-term wins—and cease bullying the United States’ trade partners,” write Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz.

The Real Meaning of Putin’s Middle East Failure Russia’s allies in the region couldn’t count on Moscow—and neither should China.

Russia’s inaction in the Middle East—in particular, its abandonment of the Assad regime—suggests that Moscow is unlikely to help Beijing “should it face its own moment of need,” write @mcfaulmike.bsky.social and Abbas Milani.

Georgia’s Warning for Ukraine A cease-fire alone would hardly end Russia’s quest for dominance.

Although Russia’s 2008 war in Georgia lasted just five days, the conflict holds important lessons for Western countries as they prepare for what comes after the war in Ukraine, writes Eka Tkeshelashvili.

China’s Overlooked AI Strategy Beijing is using soft power to gain global dominance.

“If Washington’s new AI strategy does not adequately account for open models, American AI companies, despite their world-leading models, will risk ceding international AI influence to China,” write @ojdaniels.bsky.social and @hannadohmen.bsky.social.

Israel, Gaza, and the Starvation Weapon The ICC tests a rarely prosecuted war crime.

The war in Gaza has prompted the International Criminal Court’s first prosecution of starvation crimes, writes @boydvandijk.bsky.social. Regardless of whether the case succeeds, “the precedent it establishes could redraw the legal boundaries of war.”

On the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Robert Keohane discusses the late Joseph Nye’s contributions to the study of international relations and the future of U.S. foreign policy.

Start listening here: fam.ag/4kZ9jwJ

The Coming Pax Geriatrica Aging societies and depopulation will lead to fewer wars.

As a state’s population ages, its tolerance and capacity for war decreases, writes Mark Haas. “The twenty-first century, widely predicted to be an ‘age of depopulation,’ may also turn out to be a more peaceful one.”

Russia Is Losing Its Near Abroad How America and its European allies can help erode Moscow’s declining influence.

“Countries in the Eurasian interior will continue to search for their own ways to reduce their historic reliance on Russia—but the United States and its partners should help tip them the scales,” writes Jeffrey Mankoff.