Mishel Ghassibe 🇺🇦

On my way back from the NBER Summer Institute, where I had the pleasure to present my work with Anton Nakov on Business Cycles with Pricing Cascades

Many thanks to the organisers for including the paper!

Video 🔗: shorturl.at/amCAj

If you are in Cambridge, don't miss out on this session including fascinating papers by @mickeygb.bsky.social
and @benmoll.bsky.social

On my way to Copenhagen for the Society for Economic Dynamics (SED) Annual Meeting!

Look forward to presenting at 9:00am on Friday, July 27th in an exciting session on Inflation Dynamics with Networks and Firm Heterogeneity, w/ Vincent Sterk and Simone Lenzu.

Excited to be in Split, Croatia for the 2025 NBER ISoM!

Great program complementing an equally fascinating location.

🔗 www.nber.org/conferences/...

Intertemporal pass-through Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Joint work with Boromeus Wanengkirtyo and @iyotzov.bsky.social

Link: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

🌟NEW PAPER🌟

Forward-looking inflation is central to monetary economics

A micro building block of such foresight is Intertemporal Pass-Through (iPT): the sensitivity of firms' *current* reset prices to *expected* marginal costs

We estimate iPT and find it consistent with sticky-price models

Great two days at the BSE Summer Forum Worksop on “Networks and Firm Heterogeneity in Macro and Trade”, which we organised with Alessandro Ferrari

Many thanks to all the participants for the great presentations!

2025 Conference on Macroeconomics

Excited to be at Yale for the next couple of days, presenting at the Cowles Summer Conference on Macroeconomics.

Many thanks to Fernando Alvarez and Joel Flynn for putting together such a great event.

Even the border officer at Newark is concerned by the fact that the third chapter of my PhD dissertation is still unpublished

A sign from above

At the same time, interaction of networks with demand shocks produces a realistically flat Phillips Curve!

Unlike in standard models, substantial money non-neutrality and strong inflationary episodes co-exist WITHOUT the reduced-form markup shocks.

Comments welcome!

Interaction of pricing cascades with supply shocks is key for explaining the observed patterns in the post-Covid era!

Feeding in the observed shocks to energy and food prices (only TWO sectors) explains AGGREGATE inflation and adjustment frequency in the Euro Area

KEY: networks interact differently with supply and demand shocks

SUPPLY: networks *strengthen* cascades, creating a reinforcing double whammy of increases in inflation and frequency

DEMAND: networks *dampen* cascades, generating mild inflation and strong money non-neutrality

Combine three minimal ingredients to rationalize observed patterns:

1⃣Multi-sector setup with production networks
2⃣State-dependent pricing
3⃣Fully non-linear solutions

The interaction of the three creates a novel channel of non-linearity in inflation dynamics: pricing CASCADES

🌟NEW PAPER w/ Anton Nakov

Recent episodes have taught us a lot about inflation:
1⃣Surges can be large even in adv. economies
2⃣Adjustment freq.⬆️ is a key micro channel
3⃣Sectoral shocks can drive aggregates

Need a new model to analyze such patterns!

🔗shorturl.at/CySIs

We started a project with Marcus and Anton Nakov a few months ago, and have had some extremely thought-stimulating calls.

Perhaps the most vivid memory is from a call on Dec 24th, when after an almost 3-h brainstorm we got the code to run. We called it a Christmas miracle!

RIP Marcus

Parents sit by the body of their 15-year-old son…
Russian ballistic strike on Kryvy Rih killed 14 people today, including 6 children. Right next to a playground.

Who still dares to “understand” Russia after this massacre?

Peace through strength.

The strength you need to stand up to bullies.

Just a few days left to submit to our Workshop on Networks and Firm Heterogeneity in Macro and Trade!

Deadline: Friday February 28th

We look forward to seeing you in Barcelona in June ☀️

“Let Americas and Russias be silent, when I am talking to you!”

Ти ще виболюєшся болем,
ти ще роздерта на шматки,
та вже, крута і непокірна,
ти випросталася для волі,

ти гнівом виросла. Тепер
не матимеш од нього спокою,
йому ж рости і рости, допоки
не упадуть тюремні двері.

🌐Are you researching firms or networks in macro or trade?

🎯Then submit your paper to our BSE Summer Forum Workshop (w/ @aferrari.bsky.social)!

✨Keynotes: Pol Antràs, Jennifer La'O

⏰Deadline: Feb 28

Funded by @cienciagob.bsky.social @snsf-ch.bsky.social

events.bse.eu/live/files/5...

Silencio!

RIP David Lynch

Strength. Pride. Glory.

USYK 🇺🇦💪🏼

Team #Ukraine at the SED in Buenos Aires!

Thanks Fabio Ghironi for all his consistent 🇺🇦 support

14th ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data The purpose of this conference is to discuss ongoing research on survey and micro data and its role and usage in macroeconomics.

Excited to be in Munich to present at the fantastic Conference on Macro and Survey Data, organized by the Ifo Institute.

The appointment of LTG (ret.) Keith Kellogg as a special U.S. envoy to Ukraine looks rather promising. To begin with, Kellogg is among the few who have visited the war zones in Ukraine.

We don't fully agree with his vision, but he is the person we can work with.

He will listen and hear us out.

👍

I think this should be a much bigger scandal than it currently is

In fact, other platforms, such as EconJobMarket also post vacancies from russian institutions

Time to fix this and ensure complete international isolation of russian academia

The artificial famine of 1932-1933, known as Holodomor, was a horrific act of genocide of the murderous communist regime against the Ukrainian nation.

As we mark the Holodomor Remembrance Day, it is crucial to never forget that Hammer and Sickle mean Death and Hunger .