Diego Känzig

War jeden Cent Wert!:-)

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Showing empirically that green innovation is countercyclical and explaining it with a model where backloaded profits make green research and development less sensitive to downturns, from Diego R. Känzig, @maxkonradt.bsky.social, Lixing Wang, and Donghai Zhang https://www.nber.org/papers/w34041

I will be presenting some new work on climate policy uncertainty, joint with my amazing co-authors Costas Gavriilidis, Ramya Raghavan and Jim Stock

Very much looking forward to today's workshop on Macro Public Finance at the @nber.org SI. Honored to be among a fantastic group of speakers and discussants. If you are in Cambridge, drop by! www.nber.org/conferences/...

SI 2025 Workshop on Methods and Applications for Dynamic Equilibrium Models

More info on the session and slides can be found here: www.nber.org/conferences/...

If you are in Cambridge, don't miss out on this session including fascinating papers by @mickeygb.bsky.social
and @benmoll.bsky.social

We also study how important these shocks were in the recent inflationary episode, the role of monetary policy in the transmission of these shocks, as well as the sectoral impacts.

This has also substantial effects on the U.S. economy

Using this as an instrument in a semi-structural model of global shipping markets, we document pervasive macroeconomic effects:

We quantify the market impact of these disruptions by measuring how shipping rates change in a narrow window around the events. In this way, we obtain some plausibly exogenous variation in shipping rates

We perform a detailed narrative account of disruptive events at these choke points, including collisions, groundings or extreme weather events. I am sure you remember Ever Given, but there are many more:

Our idea: Global trade is heavily reliant on maritime trade, which in turn relies on a few key choke points: the Panama and the Suez canal

Shipping costs are a key barometer for supply chain pressures. However, they are influenced by both demand and supply. How can we isolate the effects of an exogenous supply chain disruption?

Very excited to present some new work on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain disruptions at the @nber.org SI, joint with my brilliant student Ramya Raghavan!

Florin Bilbiie 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 on X: "SED-ing in København, looking forward to the session on inflation this Friday, sharing it with an amazing group of economists. Presenting our paper with Diego @drkaenzig on Profits, Inflation, and AD (and "Greed?"). Sometimes misunderstood, hopefully increasingly less so :) https://t.co/w1hS1uB5Tt" / X SED-ing in København, looking forward to the session on inflation this Friday, sharing it with an amazing group of economists. Presenting our paper with Diego @drkaenzig on Profits, Inflation, and AD (and "Greed?"). Sometimes misunderstood, hopefully increasingly less so :) https://t.co/w1hS1uB5Tt

And the one and only @florinbilbiie.bsky.social is presenting our work on profits, inflation and aggregate demand: x.com/FlorinBilbii...

I also have wonderful co-authors presenting some new joint work. @adrienbilal.bsky.social is presenting a new project on climate change and monetary policy

Really looking forward to this year's #SEDmeeting
in Copenhagen. If you are around, check out this cool session on shipping trends and disruptions, happening this Saturday from 13:30 to 15:00:

SI 2025 Macro Public Finance

We just finalized the program for this year's @nber.org Summer Institute session on Macro Public Finance:

www.nber.org/conferences/...

Join us on July 17!

@s-stantcheva.bsky.social @dirkkruegerier.bsky.social

The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements (April 2021) - This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and h...

Full paper here: dkaenzig.github.io/diegokaenzig...

Published version: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

These shocks have meaningful effects on oil prices and the macroeconomy:

In recent years, there have been some large OPEC surprises in oil markets:

GitHub - dkaenzig/oilsupplynews: Repository containing vintages of oil supply news shock data Repository containing vintages of oil supply news shock data - dkaenzig/oilsupplynews

In my work I show the importance of oil supply news in explaining variations in oil prices. I just posted updated shock series until Dec-2024. You can find them in the github repo here: github.com/dkaenzig/oil...

Oil Extends Drop as US Stockpile Build Amplifies Glut Concerns Oil declined for a third day as US stockpiles gained and OPEC+ members discussed another super-sized production increase for July, just as demand faces headwinds from the US-led trade war.

Oil prices are falling as OPEC+ is considering a third straight monthly output hike with WTI trading below $61. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

We have a new working paper:

𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲

with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social

Short thread below ⬇️

@empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social

Proposing an analytic representation of sequence-space Jacobians in heterogeneous agent models in continuous time, which leads to a threefold speed gain, from Adrien Bilal and Shlok Goyal https://www.nber.org/papers/w33525

Vielen Dank nochmals für den Shoutout und die anregende Diskussion!🙏

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism The CBAM will initially apply to imports of certain goods and selected precursors whose production is carbon intensive and at most significant risk of carbon leakage: cement, iron and steel, aluminium...

Dies ist bei grösseren Volkswirtschaften nicht möglich, da die nötigen Sanktionen viel zu hoch ausfallen würden. Der Europäische CBAM ist ein vielversprechender Ansatz in diese Richtung: taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-borde...

3. Es stimmt, dass es v.a. für grosse Volkswirtschaften/Wirtschaftsräume Sinn macht unilateral zu dekarbonisieren. Aber das hilft schon enorm: wenn die Grossen dekarbonisieren, können kleinere Volkswirtschaften mit Sanktionen auch dazu gebracht werden.

Zukünftige Forschung sollte sich vermehrt mit diesen strategischen Aspekten auseinandersetzen. @tbourany.bsky.social hat ein cooles Papier hierzu geschrieben: thomasbourany.github.io/files/Bouran...