Robert Vargas

Chicago violent crime, homicides dropped after ShotSpotter removal, study finds A new study looks at Chicago crime post-ShotSpotter.

Proud of David Hackett for fielding questions about our study live on WGN. For folks worried about the 54 deaths at locations where the tech was turned off, please note that more deaths occurred at those places when Shotspotter was ON last year.
wgntv.com/news/chicago...

“We’re first responders—just like police, firemen and nurses —but we don’t get protective gear. Just for $40K? And a lot of [street outreach workers] don’t make that!”

A powerful op-ed that should really open some eyes.

Relatedly, we show that homicides are down 37% in police beats with shotspotter devices. This is an especially important fact given the surprising number of advocates who said that turning off the mics would lead to a massive increase in preventable deaths.

With everyone under the sun trying to claim credit for Chicago’s 2025 crime decline, we created this interactive granular map to examine some of the most popular claims. Take a look. If you have claims you’d like us to fact check, let us know!

uchicago-justice-project.github.io/chicago_crim...

This is a reason why I've been skeptical about the Mayor's claim that improved clearance rates have contributed to the decrease in crime.

I messaged the author exactly about this and he said a response is coming.

CPD has steadfastly claimed responding officers did not know immigration activity was happening on June 4. But a phone call to OEMC from a police captain in CPD HQ shows he knew it was Homeland Security Investigations—an arm of ICE—but didn't want to broadcast that or "make it a media thing."

I doubt it changes most of your findings but im still not sure whether the decline is real. Clarity would be great!

Chicago: The city of moving goal posts. I hope Mamdani's people in NYC are taking notes.

CPD Working to ‘Fix’ Problem That Led to 211K Undocumented Traffic Stops, Police Official Tells City Panel CPD reported to state officials that officers made 295,846 traffic stops in 2024. But police dispatchers recorded that officers made an additional 210,622 stops in 2024 that were not documented, raisi...

Cool graphs. I read that 210,000 traffic stops are missing in the data according to this piece? Did that affect your findings? news.wttw.com/2025/07/02/c...

State + local budgets will be torpedoed by the deathmonger bill.

It will be beyond tempting for your state/local politicians to try to fill in the gaps by seeking the only new federal assistance $ available to help offset huge expenses: billions in ICE $ for policing and jails.

Strategize NOW.

Follow @thecity.nyc. We relentlessly investigate people in power & when we have the goods on them, whatever their political position, we hit publish.

What we don't do: Publish crap.

NEW YORK, look at me. You need to study the election of Brandon Johnson in Chicago.

Once again, to inject some research into this conversation...although millionaires often threaten to move if taxed, that tends not to actually happen. The millionaire tax flight thing is a myth.

See book below ⤵️

www.sup.org/books/sociol...

Some lessons from this great piece. 1) Crime decreases will never satisfy those pushing for surveillance, 2) opponents will frame critics of surveillance cameras as anti-small business, 3) it might be worth doing research on things that ACTUALLY help and hurt small businesses.

I want to underscore this great point. Empathy is very much needed here to begin difficult conversations and change people’s minds. Too often, the actors with the most empathy in these kinds of chats are the lobbyists hired by tech firms to manufacture consent for their products.

The end of Chicago has already happened, which is why our population grew last year.

I also hope that independent news outlets in NYC can learn from the great work you and your colleagues do at the Triibe!

I hope they can at least apply lessons learned from Chicago in recent years. Most importantly the idea that the opposition will seek to transform victories into losses. BJ's cancellation of shot-putter should have been an easy win and campaign promise fulfilled. The opposition muddied that.

If the direction of NYC mayoral primary holds, Mamdani’s team needs to prep for what will likely be the most insane propaganda and sabotage campaign in recent history.

PERSPECTIVE: Curfews won’t keep us safe; they just criminalize the existence of Black and brown youth • The TRiiBE The fight against the “snap curfew” in Chicago is a fight against homegrown fascism.

I think this is the best summary of the pushback

thetriibe.com/2025/06/pers...

Thanks. Do you mean pushback against critics of the curfew?

"[W]e risk combining two threats: expanded policing powers, and growing private influence. What happens when police departments with unregulated donor relationships are granted emergency powers? Who will they serve when a sponsor’s retail hub is under threat from teen loitering?"

Opinion: Who Benefits From a Snap Curfew? What giving police unchecked powers to detain teens means in authoritarian times.

What does a snap curfew mean at a time of rising authoritarianism and privatization? The answer is grim, especially when you think long-term. Wrote about this at South Side Weekly.

southsideweekly.com/opinion-who-...

I’d say submit a FOIA for it. Thats the only way to get data on anything of significance.

I’ve stepped back from wading into the “race to the bottom-data driven” discourse on crime and policing lately, but the conclusions implied in this article are so wrong its dangerous for the city, the violence prevention community, and law enforcement.

“Anonymous CPD sources”

If this is the output of CPD’s investment in PR staff, they’re not getting a whole lot of return on their investment

CPD & the Crime Lab say 49% of carjackers are youth—but that stat comes from just 15% of cases where someone was arrested.
The other 85%? We don’t know who did it.
📊 Misleading data leads to misleading narratives. #DataMatters #Chicago

The SRT Boys are a symptom.
The carjacking surge is a system.
We need journalism that tells that story.