Erik Fossing Nielsen

At Substack - look for me, Erik Fossing Nielsen, at Independent Economics.
…. And it’s all free!

Trump and Xi eased their tensions this past week, but the root cause - their excessive national - are not being addressed. To do so would require a different type and level of cooperation which - sadly - is not what drives today’s leaders.

independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...

If you are nice to us Europeans, we could consider helping you out …

Impressions from Berlin Global Dialogue. Lots of positives, but key impression is one of anger - feeling of betrayal - by China due to rare earths ban.

independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...

Sunday Wrap Impressions from the IMF Annual Meetings in Washington. First take...

My impressions from the IMF annual meetings

open.substack.com/pub/independ...

🙏🙏🙏

The French budget and debt are no worse than in most other major economies.
They all need a medium term plan to restore sustainability. That’ll require broad buy-in from society. It’ll have to include wealth taxation everywhere.

independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...

This reflects well the majority of feedback I got in the note.
Yet, the present state of affairs (community agreements after delays and “bribery” of small hold-outs along with watering down proposals) is not sustainable.
So what’s going to give?
I think it’ll be the community methods.

🤣🤣🤣

In today’s Sunday Wrap I argue that this past week saw Berlin and Paris signal a move to more intergovernmental cooperation in the EU’s response to challenges posed by US and Russia. That’s good news.

independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...

Sunday Wrap Wealth taxation may be the make-or-break topic in France's political crisis. I summarise why I don't like wealth taxation, but that there is a good case for an exemption in today's France.

Sunday Wrap on the possible re-introduction of a wealth tax in France - the hottest debated issue in the present political crisis.

Why I dont like wealth taxation, but think there is a case for an exemption now.

open.substack.com/pub/independ...

Sunday Wrap Postcard from the real France

Postcard from the real France

open.substack.com/pub/independ...

Sunday Wrap Why I was underwhelmed by von der Leyen's State of the Union address on Wednesday: Misguided on economic reforms, okay on Ukraine, defensive (with no explanations) of her questionable deal with Trump.

My thoughts on von der Leyen’s State of Union address:
On balance, I was disappointed.
1. on econ reforms, its was misguided and insufficiently ambitious,
2. On Ukraine, okay, but …
3. On the US, defensive but without explanation for the weird stuff

open.substack.com/pub/independ...

Spot on.

🙏🙏🙏

Sunday Wrap The long - and somewhat predictable - road to the arrival of Trump, and why the slowdown will get worse and quite probably lead to a crisis.

In today’s new 3-edition Sunday Wrap :

- a brief history of what motivated 18 years of Sunday writing
- the long (and predictable!) road to Trump
- how his policies lead to a faster slowdown, and raises the risk of a major crisis

erikfossingnielsen179.substack.com/p/sunday-wrap

Just a reminder: Greenland left the EU in 1985 (after having joined with the rest of Denmark in 1973) 🤔

The 10 year BTP-Bund spread is at its lowest since 2010 and Italy in 2024 went back to a primary surplus, as it consistently did for almost two decades before COVID (unlike France, who’s been overshooting its deficit forecasts for 30 years). Don’t cry wolf where there isn’t one, it’s irresponsible.

WHY DOESNT ANYONE IMMEDIATELY CORRECT HIM?

The ignorance of the US administration never stops shocking anyone with just basic knowledge.

Unbelievable indeed.

But apart from the mark-up per se, one cannot help but note the US treasury secretary’s personification of the US treasury (supposedly) and Trump himself.

Fascinating story on so many levels www.ft.com/content/106b...

Wenn mehr Geld für Verteidigung und Infrastruktur Links bleibt, dann bin ich Links!

Looking forward to reading …

One of America’s truly finest - the one and only Carlos Santana - wrapped up his European tour tonight in Copenhagen. What an evening with one of the real greats.

“Now turning in the right direction”? We’ll probably end up with the highest tariffs for almost 100 years and the end of Most Favored Nations principle!

Is logic to shock and then retreat a bit? So, if he starts by saying he’ll commit mass murder but “only” kills a few, shall we be pleased?

What makes you think he knows?

Scott Bessent doesn’t want to become Fed chair …

Just about the most understandable thing he has said since he came to Washington.

This is unlikely to end well….

There is no EU facility which can disburse any - any! - money to Trump for him to invest or spend as he pleases.

The level of basic understanding at the highest level in the US is pretty staggering.

Osborne is wrong! Period!