Patriots Analytics

@colleenwolfe.bsky.social is 2-0 on hail mary picks for the patriots this season🫡

One more?

A Random Dynasty Highlight:

2001 AFC Conference Championship @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Special Teams Play by Matt Chatham

#Patriots #Dynasty

Approval voting is what I believe you’re suggesting…

You can also provide addendums to limit class size eg “top 5 most popular” or “minimum 75% yes” etc

Credit to @patriotsanalytics.bsky.social for the numbers

Oh you definitely win the presentation game!

Too many HCs are tied at 15 to fit in that tweet but:

Belichick, Parcells, Walsh, Ditka, Cowher, McCarthy, Rivera, Reid, Campbell

In the 106 year history of the NFL, here's some Head Coaches ranking:

Most 16 win seasons: Belichick - 1
Most 14 win seasons: Belichick - 5
Most 13 win seasons: Belichick - 7
Most 12 win seasons: Belichick - 13
Most 11 win seasons: Belichick - 17
Most 10 win seasons: Belichick/Shula - 20

Since 1960 there have been 66 AFL Championships or AFC Championship Games

Of every QB to start those games, no QB has had fewer pass attempts than Jarrett Stidham who will start on Sunday:

It is the fewest since 2004 Ben Roethlisberger.

Inexperienced 😬

Yeah, should be 33% of Super Bowls *featured* a starting QB *drafted* by the Patriots

This should indeed say featured 🤦‍♀️

* Fran Tarkenton was drafted by the Patriots in the AFL draft, and the Vikings in the NFL draft

Assuming no injuries next week, one of Drake Maye or Jarrett Stidham will start Super Bowl LX

This means 33% of Super Bowl starting QBs were drafted by the Patriots:

Brady: 10
Tarkenton*: 3
Plunkett: 2
Eason: 1
Bledsoe: 1
Gannon: 1
Garoppolo: 1
Maye/Stidham: 1

Relentless.

Pressure normally comes from the blitz, which Maye has been stellar against.

Houston blitzes at League low rates and just wins with 4, much different beast.

The Buffalo Bills just gave a masterclass in union tactics to save their season. When the chips were down, they packed down into a massive maul and rumbled into the end zone, proving that sometimes the best way to advance in the NFL is to play a little rugby.

Patriots Saturday

⭐️9a: NFL AP All-Pro teams revealed

🚶‍♂️🏈Day-before-game walkthru

🕓🛗4p: Deadline roster moves

NOTES: DTs Leonard Taylor III/Jeremiah Pharms among top p-squad options for elevations...60th Patriots playoff game (5th/NFL)...35 players in postseason 1st time.

Does the AP tell you when they're going to release the All Pro teams?

Last year they were release around lunchtime...

538 used to have a similar idea with Team ELO that was quite instructive:

Each NFL team's regular season point differential in the Super Bowl era through the 2025 season.

The Seahawks and Texans have reached new high points, while the Raiders and Jets have nearly matched their worst seasons ever.

Do you think with the chargers OL injuries the pats blitz less and trust the DL to generate pressure passively, or blitz more to overload a weaker LAC unit?

Votes deadline is today

All Pro ran is announced Friday

MVP and other awards announced during NFL honors between championship conference games and the Super Bowl

Enjoy your day!

I'm sorry you aren't enjoying this moment for our team the same way we are, but fortunately not everyone finds enjoyment the same way as you.

If you find this content objectionable I heartily recommend using the block button which is stunningly effective to avoid further hindrances to your day 😁

I'm sorry you found us so annoying you had to seek out our posts discussing our QB just to tell us how annoying we are as a fanbase.

I hope your day goes better and you have a happy new year!

"DVOA-VOA differential" mede o quão fortes foram as defesas

Este ano, o valor de Maye é de -5,17%, o que o colocaria apenas em 5.º lugar entre os MVPs anteriores

*translated with deepl.com*

I'm sorry you feel that presenting stats is annoying David, but this is kinda the purpose of a *Patriots Analytics* account

If you have issues with the stats presented I'm happy to introduce more ones to this table!

Just to add another comparison, here are each candidate’s top five targets this year.

Drake Maye:
- Stefon Diggs
- Hunter Henry
- Mack Hollins
- Kayshon Boutte
- DeMario Douglas

Matthew Stafford:
- Puka Nacua
- Davante Adams
- Colby Parkinson
- Kyren Williams
- Tyler Higbee

Total Yards:

Drake Maye:
Pass: 4,203
Rush: 450
Sack: -201

Matthew Stafford
Pass: 4,707
Rush: -2
Sack: -150

Total Yards:

Drake Maye: 4,452
Matthew Stafford: 4,555

Fortunately we have more stats than just yards and TDs in the modern NFL

Preferring Stafford isn't mad, but I would hope you have more analysis than basic counting stats which exclude one of Drake's USPs, namely his huge rushing contribution (400 more yards, and 4 TDs)

The final MVP race comparisons...

Presented without comment.

MVPs with an easier schedule of pass defenses than Drake Maye:

1999 Kurt Warner: -8.7% Defensive Adjustment for Pass DVOA
2015 Cam Newton: -6.7%
1978 Terry Bradshaw: -6.6%
1990 Joe Montana: -5.3%

**2025 Drake Maye: -5.2%**

1994 Steve Young: -4.7%

Numbers from @ftnfantasy.com & @aaronschatz.com