Jonathan Rosenthal

Thanks for explaining

The stuff in the Baltic isn't really getting the traction over here it might. We're currently doing seabed surveys off Gdansk in Poland but have lost well over a week now to GPS jamming and spoofing originating in Kaliningrad making the vessel's systems show it as being off Sweden.

Crikey. That sounds worrying. I was aware of the GPS spoofing in the region and its effect on aircraft, but had not given much thought to the impact on precision navigation that is required for other things like the work you are doing.

Good question. I would think it is that he sees an opportunity and is pushing limits.

A long battle lies ahead. Shadow fleets surged after the war in Ukraine began, but they are likely to outlive it, having exposed the weakness of maritime governance. “I don’t think the genie is going back into the bottle,” says one expert
3/3
www.economist.com/internationa...

Estonia's navy is at the frontline. It sometimes tracks dozens of shadow fleet vessels a day. But for its small fleet of MCM and patrol vessels, chasing tankers is“like smaller dogs trying to get to the big dog”, says a sailor involved in a pursuit earlier this year. 2/3

Russia's grey-zone conflict against the West is escalating at sea as well as in the air, as evident in drone incursions in Denmark and a the boarding of Boracay by France
This week in @economist.com we look at the threat posed by Russia's shadow fleet, and NATO efforts to counter it. A short 🧵 1/3

Come on @crisisgroup.org You have chosen to hold a discussion on the New Middle Eastern order on the one day in the year (Yom Kippur) that pretty much all Jews will be unable to attend. I don’t believe you deliberately intended to exclude Jews, but that’s what you’ve done.

America’s new plan to fight a war with China Readying for a rumble in the jungle

America’s new plan to fight a war with China
economist.com/internationa...
This week’s International section in The Economist.

Opinion | The Reasons Israelis Have Closed Their Eyes to Gaza

"Worse than showing indifference, many Israelis deny the clear realities: that Gaza is in chaos and teetering on the edge of widespread starvation, and that Israel has played a major role in bringing about this terrible state."

This is worth reading
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/o...

I'm writing this week on the crisis in international law and have just come across the most spectacular example of judicial activism (in an ICJ case), where in two paragraphs a judge explains that he voted for something, even though he thinks it has no basis in law.

www.icj-cij.org/sites/defaul...

Thank you.

Thank you.

I've been reporting on the rising jihadist threat to the Sahel and Horn of Africa since 2014, and how it has spread to Mozambique and Congo. As the trends were getting worse, I hoped governments in the region and Western backers could turn the tide. Instead the slide continues.

Africa Surpasses 150,000 Deaths Linked to Militant Islamist Groups in Past Decade – Africa Center Fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence in Africa have surged by nearly 60% since 2021.

Horrifying milestone of 150,000 deaths in Africa linked to jihadists groups over the past 10 years.
africacenter.org/spotlight/en...

I agree. Please tell that to France

Does Japan have a battlegroup stationed in the Baltics? Has Japan committed its nuclear deterrent (not that it has one) to Nato and European defence?
The point is for France to grow up and to treat the UK as an equal partner on European security.

Right now, that's besides the point. I wish they hadn't, but we are here now. Are you going to compromise European security today because of a vote in 2016?

In particular?

I’m a remainer but the reality is the UK won’t come back in for decades. So given where we are, does the EU want a genuine partnership on security or does it want to treat the UK no differently than Japan? If UK is treated like Japan, which doesn’t contribute to European security, why should UK?

That is exactly the point. The UK and the EU have an interest in co-operating on common defence. But France’s demands place its own industry above common security. Either this is a co-operative endeavour or it is zero-sum. You can’t have one side being zero-sum while expecting co-operation.

I’m completely in favour of closer EU defence co-operation and procurement, but if France wants to insist that the UK pay a % on all contracts to UK companies, then we should start charging the EU a fee for our contribution to collective security (and France for fishing our waters).

Lessons from Ukraine
"Innovation does play a role…but quantity has a quality of its own. Mass is not going anywhere. We need to adopt and adapt faster than our adversaries, but that does not replace the need for us to outproduce them on ammunition: Benedetta Berti, Director, Policy Planning, NATO

Re Ukraine's battle experience, General Hodges says: Most Nato countries could not meet Ukraine’s standard for combat readiness.
I would be willing to bet that in about 10 years Ukraine will be the centre of European defence industry in Europe - Hodges at #CHLondon conference 5/

"We have not seriously tried to help Ukraine this war.
Their favourite vehicle is the Bradly, which entered service about the same time I did." Gen Hodges 4/

Re Russia and NATO: “Our air and missile defence is completely inadequate to protect our transportation infrastructure…We should prepare for air and missile attacks against our ports (referring to ports in Europe essential to a NATO response)” - General Hodges

Hodges also makes an interesting comment on one of the uncertainties of a US intervention in Iran: There is no way that General Kurrila (CENTCOM) would guarantee that that 30,000lb bomb would make it to the sweet spot inside that mountain. 2/

Very punchy comments by General Ben Hodges
at Chatham House conference #CHLondon on European NATO defence spending:
"Europe is itself a super power. It should quit whining and act like a superpower." Also thanks for the shoutout to @economist.com 1/

Speaking in London at a Chatham House event, Sir John Sawers (former head of MI6) thinks it likely that America will intervene in Iran and bomb nuclear facilities.
Argues it should get on with it, as delays give Iran time to move material out. Argues UK should stay out. #CHLondon

Surprising line by John Sawyers (former head of MI6) that "Israel is achieving its goals" in Iran, considering it has barely touched the deeply-buried enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz (as far as we know).
www.ft.com/content/45bf...