Dan Ibarra

Voss Postdoctoral Research Associate call is now open at Brown University in the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society (@brown-ibes.bsky.social) - apply.interfolio.com/170172

My group has hosted two amazing postdocs via this program over the past several years, feel free to get in touch!

North Pacific ocean–atmosphere responses to Holocene and future warming drive Southwest US drought - Nature Geoscience Mid-Holocene and the future warming induces a North Pacific response resulting in sustained winter precipitation deficits and drought over the Southwestern United States, according to new palaeoclimat...

Southwest drought vs aridification, shots fired for aridification in @natgeosci.nature.com

Neg PDO in paleoclimate mid Holocene records lowers winter precip, probably too light in models

w @atthenius.bsky.social @climate-z.bsky.social

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report. The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track decreases or increases in the rate of the climatic changes presented here.

Our new paper updating key metrics in the IPCC is now out, and the news is grim:

⬆️ Human induced warming now at 1.36C
⬆️ Rate of warming now 0.27C / decade
⬆️ Sharp increase in Earth's energy imbalance
⬇️ Remaining 1.5C carbon budget only 130 GtCO2

essd.copernicus.org/...

I’m not going to retweet that NOAA propaganda post about deep sea mining.

Instead, I’ll tell you that I don’t know a single NOAA scientist who would promote deep sea mining in this way, because the available science we have does not justify exploitation of deep sea habitats for minerals.

"notice of changes" means these NOAA datasets will be going away. Disciplines include #geology, #meteorology, and #coastalgeomorphology.

NOAA Datasets Will Soon Disappear - Eos NOAA has quietly reported that they will soon decommission 14 datasets, products, and catalogs related to earthquakes and marine, coastal, and estuary science.

NOAA has quietly reported that they will soon decommission 14 datasets, data products, and catalogs related to marine, coastal, and estuary science and earthquakes. Story by @astrokimcartier.bsky.social. eos.org/research-and...

Lot's of NOAA datasets are slated for decommission soon:
www.nesdis.noaa.gov/about/docume...

NOAA Datasets Will Soon Disappear - Eos NOAA has quietly reported that they will soon decommission 14 datasets, products, and catalogs related to earthquakes and marine, coastal, and estuary science.

NOAA has quietly reported that they will soon decommission 14 datasets, products, and catalogs related to earthquakes and marine, coastal, and estuary science. According to the list, these data sources will be “decommissioned and will no longer be available” by early May.
eos.org/research-and...

🙋🏻‍♂️

Friday fluorination!

The local NBC news came to my lab today to cover this story! Featuring graduate student Riley Havel: turnto10.com/news/local/b...

Amazon rainforest cut down to build highway for COP climate summit The infrastructure required to host climate talks in Belém is undermining the cause, campaigners say.

How do you say The Onion in Portuguese?

Determination of KGa‐1b and SHCa‐1 Δ′17O and δ18O via Laser Fluorination of Lithium Fluoride Clay Pellets Rationale Stable oxygen isotope measurements in silicate clays, such as smectite and kaolinite, provide crucial information for understanding Earth's climate history and environmental changes. Despi...

For the oxygen isotope inclined, my lab’s latest on clay mineral triple oxygen isotope analysis methods led by graduate student Catherine Gagnon: analyticalsciencejournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

@brown-ibes.bsky.social

Brown Lab helps identify Ice Cream Drop Meteorite Brown University's Ibarra Lab recently helped verify a meteorite that landed in a Pennsylvania resident's ice cream.

One of our side projects in my lab is analyzing meteorites for oxygen isotopes. A fun article about one of them came out today: deeps.brown.edu/news/2025-03...

Earth orbital rhythms links timing of Deccan trap volcanism phases and global climate change Different phases in end of the Cretaceous massive flood basalt volcanism had a differential impact on the global climate system.

Excellent paper by Thomas Westerhold and colleagues using precise dating of marine sediments using astronomical #Milankovitch cycles to tease out the timing of #volcanism and #meteorite #impact during the extinction of the non-avian #dinosaurs
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

This is quite a kicker in Thomas Edsall’s latest op-ed.

www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/o...

Ancient travois use by some of the earliest Americans At White Sands National Park 22,000 years ago, impressive footprint evidence is now joined by a technology for transit.

In case you missed this remarkable archaeological news from earlier this week: Track marks beside footprints show that some of the earliest known people in the Americas were constructing and dragging travois.

johnhawks.net/weblog/ancie...

Great talk from Dan showing the latest results from their community-engaged paleoclimate research in the Philippines!

@cavesandclimate.bsky.social giving the keynote!

Made it to Naga City, Philippines to present on hydroclimate variability past and present at a workshop focusing on climate research in Southeast Asia! Thrilled to be sharing my former @brown-ibes.bsky.social postdoc Natasha Sekhon’s work and my student’s work on tropical rivers and caves.

If you're an NWS employee (fired today or not) and you'd like to speak to a journalist, my email and signal are up in my bio.

How to Build the World’s Highest Mountain - Eos The rocks of Mount Everest’s peak made an epic journey from seafloor to summit.

Happy to see our 2023 paper mentioned in this nice AGU Eos article: “How to Build the World’s Highest Mountain”

eos.org/features/how...

Our paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

A fun few days in London at The Geological Society spent thinking, learning and conversing about chemical weathering and the carbon cycle!

A direct hit Late last week, the Trump administration set off a frenzy in the US scientific community when the National Institutes of Health (NIH) announced that indirect cost reimbursement for federally funded re...

"These cuts should be a rallying cry for higher education to come together... Conflicts should be set aside to focus attention on this ruthless takedown of academia. All disciplines will be affected by these cuts, not just science. This is a moment to unite."

💯 agree with @holdenthorp.bsky.social!

✋🏼

Assessing Matrix and Nonmatrix, Single, and Multipoint Calibration of Trace Elements Using LA‐ICP‐MS on a Tropical Speleothem Rationale Suites of trace elements are routinely used in speleothems as proxies to understand periods of past climate change. Laser ablation techniques are regularly implemented to acquire high reso...

Our paper led by former @brown-ibes.bsky.social postdoc Natasha Sekhon with former undergrad Annabelle Gao on LA-ICP-MS methods for speleothem analyses is out! We have some exciting climate records generated utilizing these methods that will appear in upcoming work.

doi.org/10.1002/rcm....

A memo listing all of the clubs eliminated by USMA.

The United States Military Academy has just eliminated all Cadet clubs and activities for POC. Most of these have existed for decades like the Society of Black Engineers. They were there when I was a Cadet in 1987. All of the religious ones remain. This isn’t DEI. It’s white Christian Nationalism.

A line graph showing atmospheric CO2 levels at Mauna Loa Observatory from 1955 to 2025. The y-axis represents CO2 mole fraction in parts per million (ppm), ranging from 320 to 420 ppm, while the x-axis is years.

The most iconic figure in the environmental sciences is the Keeling Curve, the CO₂ record from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

@noaa.gov had a wonderful site where you could visualize and download these data, and now it's just gone. These data belong to us and we should not let this happen!

📣 Calling all students interested in #CDR! Consider submitting an article to our student writing competition. The winner will receive $$$ plus have their work published & be invited to speak at a conference we're co-hosting with New York Sea Grant in September.