Ty Thiessen 🌾

It’s clear as day that the Diefenbaker Irrigation Project is a bad deal for #Saskatchewan taxpayers. Over $2 billion in costs for the WIRP at a total best-case tax return of under $600 million is an egregious loss.

But it’s also a bad deal for #Sask producers.

#skpoli 🧵

Opinion: Saskatchewan's budget leaves province perilously unprepared Saskatchewan's recent budget is built on egregious assumptions and without the same contingency for the effect of tariffs as other provinces.

“It’s time for #Saskatchewan to step up to the plate and face the challenges of the day. Budget 2025 is an embarrassment for this province. Let’s not let the rest of this session be the same.”

#skpoli

#Sask budget leaves province perilously unprepared

thestarphoenix.com/opinion/colu...

I need to post on here more often. Will also be posting more on Facebook as well since it is by far the largest and most used platform in the province.

#Saskatchewan Finance Minister Jim Reiter says his 2025 budget ensures that #Sask is the most affordable for starting a business.

#Sask has the third highest marginal tax on investment in #Canada, the highest on oil and gas, and the world’s least competitive royalty for potash.

#skpoli #cdnpoli

The motion condemns Trump for proposing to annex Canada and imposing tariffs and does not support Canada putting export tariffs on Canadian resources.

The motion passes. #skpoli

Pipe To Pivot: Dismantling the Lake Diefenbaker Irrigation Debacle, Chapter 1 With Tammy Robert & Ty Thiessen. Produced by Paul Dechene.

Please check out @tythiessen.bsky.social’s break down of the SaskParty Lake Diefenbaker Irrigation Debacle on @tammyrobert.bsky.social’s podcast.

#skpoli

tammyrobert.substack.com/p/pipe-to-pi...

Saskatchewan Survival Guide: Ep 128 We talked the Westside Diefenbaker Irrigation project with special guest and agriculture economist wunderkind Ty Thiessen.

New Saskatchewan Survivor's Guide in which Tammy & I talk w/ economics brain-haver @tythiessen.bsky.social about the Westside Diefenbaker Irrigation Project. That'd be the Sask Party's newest mega-project & soon-to-be next billion-dollar boondoogle.

When BHP attempted to buy PCS in 2010, Premier @BradWall306 vociferously opposed the move, saying his government didn’t support BHP’s philosophy, which was in reality economics 101.

Today? Radio silence on an uncompetitive merger that will slam #sask grain farmers.

#skpoli #cdnpoli

Perhaps what strikes me most about #Saskatchewan’s Government is that they’re willing to spend at least $1,000 per taxpayer to support less than 1% of #Sask producers, but they refuse to oppose the Bunge-Viterra Merger which will cost producers $770 million per year.

#skpoli #cdnpoli

YouTube video by CBC News Saskatchewan Is the Diefenbaker irrigation project worth the cost?

U of S ag economics associate prof Tristan Skolrud at 27:20. You won't regret listening to his take which is expands upon what Ty Thiessen has posted here.

Ask yourselves why are we spending this money for so little in return? #skpoli #saskatchewan

www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8_h...

Opinion: Saskatchewan's $1.2B irrigation project fails any economic test Saskatchewan's plan to spend $1.15 billion on the Diefenbaker irrigation project to benefit a small group of farmers fails any cost-benefit analysis.

The Diefenbaker Irrigation Project shortchanges #Sask by billions in costs and hampered growth.

The @SKGov is far better off investing in R+D, which can benefit all producers.

My latest:

#Saskatchewan's $1.2B irrigation project fails any economic test

thestarphoenix.com/opinion/colu...

2024 was a year of exceptional people, hard work and learning a lot. I’m honoured to start this year as the MLA for Stonebridge. 2024 will be tough to beat but we’re sure going to try!
#saskNDP #Saskatoon

bsky.app/profile/tyth...

The Diefenbaker Project makes sense for no one but a handful of landowners.

If #Saskatchewan is serious about supporting producers and delivering economic growth, the project should be scrapped.

Alternatives like R+D are far superior in all regards.

#skpoli end of 🧵

#Saskatchewan spends the least on research and development as a percentage of GDP in Canada.

If the province reversed that record, they could vastly expand economic output, advance the agriculture sector, support producers, and deliver returns for #Sask taxpayers.

#skpoli /14

Research and development is where subsidies make sense. Individual firms don’t capture substantial benefits from their own investments in R+D, creating a market failure where the #Saskatchewan Government can prudently take up the slack.

#skpoli /13

At a fraction of the cost of the Diefenbaker Project, the #sask provincial government could establish an endowment to finance research grants at the University of #Saskatchewan to reduce water stress, improve crop yields, and advance soil health. The possibilities are vast.

#skpoli /12

#Saskatchewan has, in #yxe, one of the best agricultural and water research institutions in the world, the University of Saskatchewan. The WIRP barely has the potential to benefit less than 1% of the province’s producers. Research and development benefits all producers and all of #Sask.

#skpoli /11

That “modest” regional return is a mere 3.5% annually in the best case scenario, not considering the lifecycle costs of the project.

Subsidies for sectors and projects with low returns tie capital and labour to those returns, decreasing overall economic growth.

#skpoli /10

The last resort for the #sask government is therefore the economic return of the project.

In October, #Saskatchewan economist Peter Phillips described this “return” as the “possibility we will get a modest increase in economic activity in one part of the province”.

#skpoli /9

Thus, it isn’t clear that anyone at all benefits from this project financially, beyond increases in land prices in the region. Producers throughout the province lose out, as do all #Saskatchewan taxpayers.

#skpoli /8

Of course, in all of these scenarios, the rest of #Saskatchewan, including more than 99% of grain and oilseed producers, remain on the losing end of this project.

The total gain in income for local #sask producers is less than the fiscal loss of the project.

#skpoli /7

It would be more reasonable that the #Saskatchewan government ask producers to front the maintenance and operating costs of the project, which amount to approximately $1 billion. This wouldn’t require initial borrowing.

It does, however, cut the annual return for producers to under 1%.

#skpoli /6

The S&P 500 Index consistently manages average returns exceeding 10% in the long run, which would amount to a $9.2 billion difference between investing $100 million in the S&P 500 and opting in to the WIRP.

#skpoli /5

Say local #sask producers are asked to contribute a mere 4.5% of project costs. That’s ~$100 million for producers who collectively net $8 million a year according to the report. Their annual return on that investment amounts to a measly 5.6%, an abysmal long term return.

#skpoli /4

Using further hopeful assumptions as to the crop types that #Saskatchewan producers will grow over the next 50 years (one hell of a risk), over the 50 year span of the project local producers would make an additional $1.5 billion.

That figure sounds nice…not considering costs.

#skpoli /3

Patrick Boyle of the Water Security Agency told CBC #Saskatchewan in October that participating farmers would be on the hook for a portion of the project.

The KPMG economic analysis assumes that all local farmers will gradually participate, with 100% participation by 2048.

#skpoli /2

It’s clear as day that the Diefenbaker Irrigation Project is a bad deal for #Saskatchewan taxpayers. Over $2 billion in costs for the WIRP at a total best-case tax return of under $600 million is an egregious loss.

But it’s also a bad deal for #Sask producers.

#skpoli 🧵

It was out there before as well. Mentioned in the article is a piece by Ron Styles who discussed the pitfalls of the SK economy in more detail than this piece.

Didn’t feature in the campaign. Tax reform: not discussed.

Subsides? Unchecked.

State of the economy? Scarcely considered.

Opinion: Forecasts show Saskatchewan’s economic strategy is failing Saskatchewan's lagging economy can be traced to its ongoing maintenance of one of the most inefficient and distortionary tax regimes in the country.

My latest column in the StarPhoenix and Leader-Post:

Opinion: Forecasts show #Sask economic strategy is failing

#Saskatchewan's lagging economy can be traced to its ongoing maintenance of one of the most inefficient and distortionary tax regimes in the country.

leaderpost.com/opinion/colu...