@billshobe.bsky.social
An environmental economist at the University of Virginia working on emission market design, climate policy, carbon dioxide removal, and other stuff.
I wrote a new piece on an important topic: “President Trump’s Tariffs Will Help America Win the War Against Birds”
www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/pre...
🚨 Globally, average fertility is on track to fall below the replacement rate by mid-century.
Much of our contemporary welfare state is premised on a perpetually *rising* population, and it's time to update it to reflect the new reality. www.niskanencenter.org/social-polic...
A little bit of good news for dark times. Yesterday, solar generation in PJM crossed 100 GWh for the first time. Over 4.6% of generation for the day, up from a max of 3% this time last year and 0% in 2016. Solar hit over 12% for a few hours. Bit by bit...
20.03.2025 00:21 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0When I was doing electricity demand forecasts for Virginia around 2015, demand was flat. Residential was falling a bit due to more efficient lighting, etc. Commercial was flat, industrial declining. What a surprise when growth picked up quickly starting about 2019. All data centers.
20.03.2025 00:14 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0No offense taken. Virginia just did a modeling exercise (with help from E3) to figure out how we might meet this demand. It was not a pretty picture for climate or ratepayers. Ratepayers will likely pay more as we move up the marginal cost curve. And you already know the implications for climate. 😧
13.03.2025 02:05 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Top graph has indexes for US vehicle miles traveled and gasoline sales. VMT is rising while gasoline sales have trended down since 2007. The lower chart should the difference in the indexes rising rapidly.
Today's story in pictures: changes in US vehicle miles traveled and gasoline sales since 1992.
13.03.2025 02:00 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Mostly mine was a straight time-series forecast. Any past efficiency gains are baked in. The exception is one coop where there are no operating data centers, but there are contracts for an astonishing 11 GW of capacity.
11.03.2025 12:57 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0That's my forecast. I'm a strong advocate for climate controls and have no connection to or investment in the data center business. Knowing what is happening is essential for figuring out what to do about it.
07.03.2025 19:10 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
Retail electricity sales in Virginia may to rise by 175% by 2040. The largest pulse of growth is in the Rappanannock Electric Coop service area. Total sales rise from around 100K gigawatt hours to 350K.
Without data centers, retail sales are almost flat, even with high penetration of EVs
07.03.2025 00:54 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Our electricity demand forecast for Virginia: fast, faster, fastest! It's all about data centers. Retail sales of electricity in Virginia may grow by more than 150% by 2040. I'm not sure how you do that. Synopsis here: virginia.app.box.com/s/adfb355540...
#EnergySky
I am pleased to join more that 25 of my younger colleagues to participate in the Stand Up for Science rally tomorrow at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC. Stand up, wherever you are around the country and around the world.
standupforscience2025.org
