Vitaly Portnikov

Four months of President Trump The President of the United States emphasized that he is giving the Russian and Ukrainian leaders four months to end the war – and if that does not happen, he will increase pressure on both Russia and...

Not threaten Ukraine and Russia with pressure in four months, but put pressure on Putin now. Apply pressure in such a way that the Russian president is left with no alternative but to stop waging war, killing, and shelling. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Trump, Putin, and the War for Europe’s Future The very fact of U.S.

The Davos Forum forced everyone to lay their cards on the table. It showed that European leaders are beginning to grasp the reality. But understanding is one thing—action is another. The answer to the challenge of Davos 2026 must be real action. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Putin’s “Cold Genocide” This cold winter, almost every day Ukrainians expect new massive Russian strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.

This means that instead of seeking meaningless dialogue with Putin, pressure on Russia must be increased. It means not boasting about the absence of aid to Ukraine, but strengthening this assistance – particularly by reinforcing air defense. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The “Oreshnik” signal The latest barbaric bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities by the Russians—and in this case, the epithet "barbaric" is not a rhetorical exaggeration, as it involves attempts to deprive millions of...

So, when Putin is spoken to in the language of pressure, sanctions, and the destruction of his energy companies—he understands.

When he sees attempts to negotiate with him—he launches the "Oreshnik" near European borders. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The Greenland Lesson During each of my trips to Iceland, I dreamed of at least a brief visit to Greenland.

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2026: A Year of Escalating Chaos and Possible Global Crises When I think about the year 2026, I envision a world sliding even deeper into chaos than it experienced in 2025.

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say: 2026 will be a year of deep political and economic uncertainty. And perhaps a year of global catastrophes.

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On the Normalization of the Russian Regime In light of the scandal involving Leonid Volkov, head of political projects at the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), I want to reiterate my long-standing position: the very essence of these so-called ...

And I truly don’t understand why this part of the Russian émigré community should be called an “opposition.” In reality, this is just a symbiosis of FSB agents and useful idiots.
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How to Stop Putin After meeting with advisers to the leaders of countries that support Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope for a swift conclusion to peace negotiations.

And perhaps it is precisely in Putin’s unwillingness to acknowledge the economic realities of the coming years that the answer lies to the question of whether the war can be ended.

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The World After the Rules Any attempt to forecast what 2026 might look like inevitably runs into a wall—the realization that forecasts no longer work.

We now live in a world where leaders understand only power and learn only from their own mistakes—if they learn at all. This isn’t a new chapter in human history. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

A War That Fades, Not Ends: What 2026 Might Bring The level of chaos the world is currently experiencing makes any attempt to construct a realistic political calendar extremely problematic.

Nevertheless, it can be stated with some confidence that 2026 will be a year not so much of resolution, but of a gradual winding down of the war.
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Chocolate "Trump" The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine at Donald Trump's private residence concluded without any specifics — and honestly, this was not a surprise to me.

This means that if the Russians do not abandon their demands, which cannot be implemented into Ukrainian legislation, negotiations will inevitably reach a deadlock — which, of course, is what Putin wants, but not Trump.

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The Dizzying Truth of the Nuremberg Trials Every time I encounter yet another Western dramatization of the Nuremberg Trials, I am overwhelmed by a deep and almost unbearable sense of shame.

It was the impunity of evil — its triumph, its popularity, its power not only to defend itself but to judge others — that demonstrated the terrible truth: a maniac and a murderer only need to defeat another maniac to succeed. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Why Putin Brought Up “Novorossiya” Again Against the backdrop of ongoing talks that are supposedly meant to lead to an end of the Russian–Ukrainian war, the Russian president, during a press conference in New Delhi, spoke of the inevitabilit...

As we know, in 2014 Putin had to put his large-scale annexation plan on hold. His 2022 blitzkrieg also failed — but that does not mean he abandoned his plan. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Why Russia’s Mercenary Army Works One of the Kremlin’s most effective strategies in minimizing domestic dissent has been the quiet shift from conscription to a mercenary army.

The real test will come when — or if — this system breaks. If Russia, after four years of war under these “rules,” stops paying and starts drafting en masse again, the societal reaction will be very different. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The “Spirit of Anchorage” Russian officials commenting in recent weeks on the Trump administration’s peace initiatives never fail to emphasize that any U.S.-Russia dialogue on ending the war in Ukraine must reflect the “Spirit...

But Trump is underestimating Putin. For the Russian president, any concession by his opponent is a sign of weakness — and a cue to press harder.
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The Real Danger of the So-Called “Negotiation Process” The greatest danger of this so-called negotiation process is the disorientation of society — and not just Ukrainian society.

But in truth, the entire period from 1914 to 1945 was a single war period — with two massive eruptions. It wasn’t four years. It was thirty.

And now, we are living through a similarly extended wartime era in the history of Europe — and the world. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Putin and the War to the Last Ukrainian During a meeting with journalists in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, Russian President Vladimir Putin, as if responding to those who wish to “fight to the last Ukrainian”, said that his country is...

But now — from Putin himself — we know for sure that we need to stop not just the war, but the genocide approved and sanctioned in the Kremlin. That is why the pressure on Russia must increase open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

New Peace Plan or an Old Plan of Humiliation Neither the fate nor the final content of the new “peace plan” proposed by U.S.

peace plans that humiliate Ukraine and reward Russia for its brutal and unprovoked aggression only encourage Putin to continue the war open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Trump’s Peace Plan Is a Trap — But Not for Russia As expected, Ukrainians have once again been cornered into a false dilemma:

Because let’s be honest: if someone truly wants peace, they agree to a ceasefire.
Then they sit down to talk.
Putin has refused a ceasefire.
That refusal is not just a policy choice — it’s a signal. It tells us everything we need to know.

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What Will Trump Do The shift in Donald Trump’s rhetoric toward the Russian president and his aggression against Ukraine was received in Kyiv with optimism — but also with concern.

The longer Donald Trump refrains from such leadership, the clearer the risk that the world will slide toward large-scale war. In that scenario, given contemporary realities and technological changes, the U.S. risks becoming not just an arbiter but a battlefield. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Putin’s Ultimatums and Trump’s Silence Vladimir Putin’s latest threats to use “military-technical means” — in plain language, war — against the West mark a calculated continuation of his policy of managed escalation.

The managed escalation is no longer about Ukraine alone. It is about remaking the balance of power, one humiliation at a time. And with each red line crossed, Putin’s confidence grows — matched only by the West’s silence. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Russia’s Asian Turn When I argue that the most important outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine is not just territorial aggression, but a deliberate civilizational pivot from Europe to Asia, many see it as an exaggerati...

That is why I say — without exaggeration — that the frontline which will run for years between Ukrainian and Russian armies is not only a military boundary. It is also becoming the civilizational border of China. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan: A Dangerous New Alliance The signing of a strategic cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is not just a diplomatic gesture.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is itself a precondition for a major war. He is dismantling the system of alliances that for decades restrained chaos.
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The Kozak Illusion The information campaign surrounding the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the Russian presidential administration once again exposes the vulnerability of both Ukrainian and Western media spaces to Kre...

The information campaign surrounding the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the Russian presidential administration once again exposes the vulnerability of both Ukrainian and Western media spaces to Kremlin manipulation. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

From Populist to Autocrat: Trump’s Roadmap Donald Trump, who publicly promises an Australian journalist to complain about him to the Prime Minister of Australia, may at first provoke only a condescending smile.

Which means that if it turns out the West lacks an effective judiciary—the judiciary, not just free media—then disobedient journalists will soon disappear not only from Trump’s press conferences but from America
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This isn’t an apocalypse. It’s a pause. Just a month ago, Trump expressed doubts that Putin wanted to end the war.

Putin made mistakes — classic Putin-style mistakes.
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The Empire Never Left I clearly warned that if the Russian Federation declared independence, it would inevitably lead to war — both on its own territory and across the entire former Soviet space.

And to restore the Soviet Union, Russia first and foremost needs Ukraine. We see it clearly — in the war now raging on Ukrainian soil. Without Ukraine, the Russian Federation does not see itself as a European power. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Why Russia Will Never Say Sorry I’m not surprised by how Moscow is behaving after the tragedy involving the Azerbaijani passenger aircraft.

From the Kremlin’s point of view, Azerbaijan is a territory that will eventually lose its statehood and become part of an empire that Russia is actively trying to resurrect. Not as a fantasy — as a concrete political project.
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Ukraine’s Taiwan Card in the China Game This Thursday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will travel to China for the EU–China Summit.

I keep wondering whether this is due to political short-sightedness and incompetence — or if it’s simply the result of vested business interests,with certain circles eager to profit from deals with China, even if it means sacrificing Ukraine’s sovereignty and future open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Trump vs. Putin: When the Set Collapses Has Donald Trump Changed His Stance on Russia and Putin?

So yes — Trump’s frustration with the “set” he built around Putin is our opportunity. And it would be a sin not to take advantage of it. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...