Featured in the latest Digest: Federal Fiscal Aid to State and Local Governments and COVID-19 Mortality

https://www.nber.org/digest/202507/federal-fiscal-aid-state-and-local-governments-reduced-covid-19-mortality

Many thanks to the economists who signed on, including @dacemoglumit.bsky.social, @kylepomerleau.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @danieldbunn.bsky.social‬, @kclausing.bsky.social, and @jasonfurman.bsky.social, and to our magnificent counsel.

Full brief here: www.aei.org/articles/ami...

I organized an economist amicus brief in V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. Trump, the "Liberation Day" tariffs case in which the government's appeal will soon be considered by the Federal Circuit Appeal Court.

Business Leaders Call Trump Attacks on Universities a Competitive Threat More than 200 business leaders signed an open letter calling on the Trump administration to reverse its moves against colleges and universities, arguing that funding cuts and restrictions on [student

Thank you to the hundreds of business leaders who are standing against the unconscionable attacks on our university system.

They know that was is being destroyed is future American innovation and prosperity.

An unpopular view: new diff-in-diff methods have been a setback for empirical work. I see an increased flow of papers that do 5 variants of them plus extensive torturing of parallel trends robustness to "prove" that a weak research design is solid. That effort could've been spent more productively

Spirits: "US tariff uncertainty takes its toll" www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2025/05/us-t...
"The problem with this administration is that you have to have a really loud voice in the ear of the White House to get anything done"

Can Europe Evolve? The European Union is rethinking its fiscal institutions and defense capabilities in a bid for strategic autonomy.

Here is the full essay: theamericanenterprise.com/can-europe-e...

In the new issue of The American Enterprise, @jeffreypclemens.bsky.social and I have an article comparing the evolution of America’s system of fiscal federalism to Europe’s.

Graph of COVID-19 mortality vs congressional representation. The greater the number of representatives per million residents, the lower the COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 residents. As governments around the world combatted COVID-19, the US witnessed unprecedented levels of funding transfers from the federal government to state and local municipalities. This column examines how the influx of federal aid affected the population’s health. Leveraging the fact that states with excess representation in Congress received more assistance than underrepresented states, the authors show that federal subsidies significantly improved individual health outcomes. At the same time, aid to state and local governments evinced fewer economic benefits, suggesting that federal subsidies are more constructively channelled toward critical health care inputs.

Federal subsidies to state and local municipalities in the US during COVID-19 significantly improved individual #health outcomes as subsidies were channelled toward critical health care inputs.
Jeffrey Clemens & Anwita Mahajan @ucsandiego.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

I'm happy to report receiving the green light for promotion to full professor at UCSD economics effective July 1st! I'm feeling grateful to my family, mentors, co-authors, colleagues and many others who have helped to push and pull me along the way.

"US consumer confidence plunges in April" www.reuters.com/business/us-...

When is tinkering with safety net programs harmful to beneficiaries? Interactions between redistributive policies can confront low-income households with complicated choices. We study one such interaction, namely the relationship between Medicaid eligibility threshold...

. @jeffreypclemens.bsky.social of
@ucsandiego.bsky.social and Michael Wither of Powerlytics Inc investigate when tinkering with safety net programs is harmful to beneficiaries.
#HealthInsurance #LaborMarkets #SafetyNet

Very happy to have this paper out in broad circulation.

Melinda Pitts, research center director, Center for Human Capital Studies @atlantafed.bsky.social estimates that the potential reduction in the full federal workforce, including contract and grant employees, could be as high as 1.2 million

www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macrob...

Very happy to have this paper out in broad circulation.

Michelle White was a wonderful friend, colleague, role model, and mentor to many of us at UCSD and beyond. She will be greatly missed.

Very happy to have this paper out in circulation in its final form!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Having my doubts that 145% is the right tariff rate to impose on the second largest economy in the world.

Perhaps good practical advice, but 1, 6, 8, and 11 are indicators of a bad equilibrium. They give too much power to referees based on non-essential things. Constructively, editors are in a position to counter that. Referees give advice, they don't make decisions.

Unbelievable news.

Pancreatic is one of the deadliest cancers.

New paper shows personalized mRNA vaccines can induce durable T cells that attack pancreatic cancer, with 75% of patients cancer free at three years—far, far better than standard of care.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Paper submission deadline tomorrow (the 27th) by midnight EST!

Happy to see that this important project by some of my UCSD Econ colleagues is now circulating as a working paper.

Happy to see that this important project by some of my UCSD Econ colleagues is now circulating as a working paper.

Fiscal Dynamics of State and Local Governments, Fall 2025

Reminder to submit your papers on topics related to the economics of state and local government finances, fiscal federalism, and related themes by February 27th:
www.nber.org/conferences/...

Conference to be held September 11-12, 2025.

Fiscal Dynamics of State and Local Governments, Fall 2025

Reminder to submit your papers on topics related to the economics of state and local government finances, fiscal federalism, and related themes by February 27th:
www.nber.org/conferences/...

Conference to be held September 11-12, 2025.

Does Peer Review Penalize Scientific Risk Taking?

Does Peer Review Penalize Scientific Risk Taking?

The Journal of Economics Perspectives paper itself is available here:

pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

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In addition to providing an overview of some nuanced but accessible theoretical concepts, the Journal of Economic Perspectives paper overviews a rich body of empirical work. A number of the working papers it discusses have recently been published.

Earlier Twitter thread: x.com/jeffreypclem...

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Many thanks to Alex Tabarrok for this generous discussion of my new paper with Melissa Gentry and Jonathan Meer, as well as a Journal of Economic Perspectives paper from a few years ago.

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bsky.app/profile/jeff...