Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

This Tao guy would be a good economist

in case you missed it: Terence Tao calls for pre-registration of methodology for AI mathematical ability tests, and offers an excellent breakdown of why ability even on a single given task is not a binary variable

mathstodon.xyz/@tao/1148814...

I’m gonna do this

Too good

2025-07-14 self-promotion I’m presenting my ‘getting away with 2WFE’ paper at Polmeth on thursday afternoon ; ping me if you want to grab a beverage and/or go for a walk presented this pyensmallen poster at scip...

apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/... boy do i have the rube goldberg machine for you

if you tamper with government data because it’s too downbeat, you might end up with private sector data that’s MORE downbeat

Philosophy as linear algebra, literally a Venn diagram of @bengolub.bsky.social ‘s personality

the existence of subspaces dense in evil vectors isn't a new property of humans, the internet just makes it really easy for them to sort into clusters

Great discussion / thread by Ted on how to think about future of local LLMs

a graph of US data center construction rising to roughly $40B from $10B in 2020

Official data released yesterday shows US data center construction hitting another record high in June, exceeding $40B annualized for the first time

That's up 28% from this time last year and up 190% since the launch of ChatGPT nearly three years ago

But my preferred policy has a LATE of 0.2 standard deviations!

Controversial take: Ai Weiwei would be an abundance head

Here is the column I wrote on the theme "What I Would have liked to Know About Germany Earlier," along with the additional reflections I provided at Zeit Magazin's request. -A society governed by regulations, yet lacking individual moral judgement, is more dangerous than one with none at all. -A society that values obedience without questioning authority is destined to become corrupt. -A society that admits to error but refuses to reflect on its origins possesses a mind as stubborn and dull as granite. -Here, at a deserted street, people stop dutifully at a red light. Not a car in sight. This, I once thought, is the mark of a highly evolved society. -At the heart of bureaucracy lies a collective endorsement of power's legitimacy, and therefore, individuals surrender their moral judgement–or perhaps never developed one. They abandon challenge. They relinquish dispute. -When conversation becomes avoidance, when topics must not be mentioned, we are already living under the quiet logic of authoritarianism. -When the majority believe they live in a free society, it is often a sign that the society is not free. Freedom is not a gift; it must be wrestled from the hands of banality and the quiet complicity with power. -When people sense that power is beyond challenge, they redirect their energy into trivial disputes. And those trivialities, collectively, are enough to erode a society's very foundations of justice. -When public events of great consequence–such as the Nord Stream Pipeline bombing–are met with silence from both government and media, the silence itself becomes more terrifying than any atomic bomb. -Facts are acknowledged partially, forgotten deliberately, or swallowed by collective silence. And so we repeat catastrophe–against and again, in cycles. -When the media becomes a servant of public opinion, or avoids conflict to maintain favour with existing powers, it becomes an accomplice to authority. What we call lies are not always distortions of fact.

-Political leaders make decisions steeped in fallacy & failure. This reflects the broader political condition of a society in which most people have surrendered their awareness & even their basic agency–allowing such leaders to enact their mistakes on their behalf -When a society uses linguistic difference or cultural misunderstanding as excuses for exclusion, it has crossed into a more insidious form of racism. This is not a political opinion–it is an attitude, a stain in blood, passed down like genes -Bureaucracy is not merely sluggish. It is a cultural scorn. It rejects the possibility of dialogue. It insists that ignorance, codified into policy, no matter how wrong & inhumane it is, remains the best resistance against social mobility, against moral motion. In such a society, hope is not misplaced. It is extinguished -In the surrounding atmosphere, one sees not culture, but self-congratulation; not art, but insularity & collective reverence for power. What is missing is sincerity–honesty of emotion & of intention. In such an environment, art that grapples with true human feeling or moral reckoning is nearly impossible to produce. -A place that routinely discards self-awareness & erases individual agency is one that lives under iron walls of authoritarianism -I have no family, no fatherland, never known what it is to belong. I belong only to myself. In the best of circumstances, that self should belong to everyone. I still do not know what art is. I only hope that what I make might touch its edges while it seems unrelated to anything. & in truth, in the best of circumstances it is unrelated to me, for the "I" already melts into everything -Those things found in galleries, museums, & collectors' living room–are they art? Who has declared them so? On what basis? Why do I always feel suspicion in their presence? -Works that evade reality, that shy away from argument, from controversy, from debate–be they text, painting, or performance–are worthless.

-I understand now: people crave power and tyranny as they crave sunshine and rain, for the burden of self-awareness feels like pain. at times, even like catastrophe. -Under most circumstances, society selects the most selfish, least idealistic among us to take on the work we call "art" because that choice makes everyone feel safe. Additional reflections -In Berlin, I encounter the ever-present Schweinshaxe and Schnitzel, and I can hardly believe that such a highly developed, industrialised country offers such a monotonous selection of ingredients. Even more baffling is the sudden proliferation of Chinese restaurants–most of them noodle-based, and operating at a culinary level that any Chinese person could easily achieve at home. The variety of food and cooking methods is so limited here that people form all over the world feel compelled to open restaurants: Vietnamese, Thai, Turkish–you name it. -But the truly horrifying part? The sheer number of Chinese restaurants. I can only assume they believe that no matter what ends up on the plate, German customers will come running. In front of some of these establishments, there are even long queues–yet the food they serve bears little resemblance to anything recognisably Chinese. My favourite food in Germany is the bread and sausage–you simply can't find ones with such distinctive character anywhere else. -I'm puzzled by why so many people would willingly cram themselves into a small bar just to have a long conversation. Since I don't speak the language, I can only imagine that the young people coming to Berlin would talk about clubbing. This sort of thing was all the rage in the U.S. back in the '70s and '80s. -The Germans might be the only people who are truly the furthest from a sense of humour. This could be the result of their deep reverence for rationality. Just look at Berlin Airport or the advertisements for Mercedes-Benz cars–you start to feel that their lack of humour has become a kind of immense humour in itself

Ai Weiwei was invited to contribute short reflections on “What I would have liked to know about Germany earlier" for an upcoming issue of Zeit Magazin. His submission was first shortened and edited, then immediately cancelled after a review by the Executive Editor. Ai shared his reflections anyway:

Thought that was Columbia's motto!

Discovered today that not everyone considers this nine year old viral tweet a seminal text in the field of social media studies but I do

Sounds like it's time for...

some basic economics

(but also some game theory)

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased.

#econsky

Everyone who helps the creation of meaningful accurate data for the good of the public: I admire your service and appreciate you
❤️🧡🤍🩷❤️

Before they remove her page, here is Dr. Erika McEntarfer's BLS bio page. She's a 20-year career official PhD labor economist.

Wishing courage and good luck to the folks at BLS. I know you will continue to make honest statistics, including revisions. I hope you get to publish honest numbers despite intimidation from the political side.

I snorted

my wife just said "the larry summers of our discontent" and i had to sit down for a minute

Most electricity in the Netherlands now comes from renewables.

This is today's @ourworldindata.org Data Insight from my colleague @simonvanteutem.bsky.social.

All our Data Insights are here: ourworldindata.org/data-insights

a man in an apron is saying i have no idea what i 'm doing ALT: a man in an apron is saying i have no idea what i 'm doing

Yes this paper making me realize that just repeating the core mantras for my investment management class are still useful...

(Day 1: my view on Asset Managers:

Anyone in New Orleans and available to hit tennis balls with my buddy? 3.5 level player

Lo and company hitting nonprofits with this bad boy:

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Ann. % Change, Defl. w/ National CPI, Since Post-GFC High Dallas 2.1 Charlotte 1.9 Denver 1.9 Seattle 1.8 Boston 1.0 Portland 0.9 Atlanta 0.9 San Diego 0.4 Cleveland 0.1 San Francisco 0.1 Los Angeles 0.0 Miami 0.0 Tampa -0.1 Detroit -0.2 New York City -0.2 Phoenix -0.5 Minneapolis -0.7 Washington DC -1.0 Chicago -1.0 Las Vegas -1.1

Pretty wild that house prices in Dallas, Charlotte, Denver, and Seattle have all appreciated ~2% per year in *real* terms since the pre-GFC *peak* in home prices.

This paper looks important!!

www.nber.org/papers/w3407...

#Econsky #FinSky

News: @GlennKesslerWP, better known as The Fact Checker for The Washington Post, is joining the ranks of journalists taking the buyout