Sander Wagner

i would put the up in speed it provides me around 15-20% which is even bigger, than your estimate.

Yeah the defense of online gambling that goes 'better than than gangster parlours' is pure motte and bailey. That thing is complete mega expansion grab, not just mere substitute for the legal, regulated trade

Stratification of Post-Birth Labour Supply in a High- and Low- Maternal Employment Regime This paper compares the magnitude and stratification of motherhood employment penalties in France and Germany, two countries with contrasting institut…

I want to thank the absolutely fantastic team on this paper for bringing it all together:

@filsa.bsky.social (who is the first author)

and the wonderful co-authors:
Pascal Achard, Corinna Frodermann, and Dana Müller.

Have a look at it all here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

3️⃣ There is no relationship between size and stratification of 🤰💸 across small labour markets, national policies matter

4️⃣ 🇩🇪 parental benefits which are proportional to pre-birth income, probably increase incentives for high-earning mothers to stay home, thereby decreasing stratification

What do we learn:

1️⃣ regimes with 🤏 🤰💸 can have more stratified ones than those with big ones, complicating inequality stories

2️⃣ a system with quick return to work after birth (🇫🇷) reduces 🤰💸 but can pose problems for women returning (or not returning) to less well-paid and stable jobs

👇

To test that idea we calculated the size of penalties and their stratification for many smaller units ( 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪 NUTS-2 regions).

But... no systematic relationship between penalty size and stratification emerged (after controlling for the macro-level differences between 🇫🇷 and E. and W. 🇩🇪)

So, we were like:

ooh 🤔
small motherhood penalties (🇫🇷) come with a lot of stratification
medium ones (East-🇩🇪) with some
and big ones (West-🇩🇪) with little.

💡 Maybe the relationship is the other way around from what we thought?

But...
No matter how we stratified mothers 🤰 (income 💰, education 🎓, firm they work at 🏭) :
👉 we found almost no stratification in West-🇩🇪
👉 some in East-🇩🇪
👉 quite a lot of stratification in France 🇲🇫

🇲🇫 low-income mothers have penalties almost as big as 🇩🇪 mothers (w/o the benefits)

We started this paper with a simple intuition:

👉 🇩🇪 has much larger motherhood penalties in employment than 🇲🇫 (see % change in every year since birth below)

👉 High income/educ mothers in 🇩🇪 have more money to lose 💸 in long interruptions and return to work faster

👉 Penalties more stratified in 🇩🇪

New Pub 🚨📝🎓:

"Stratification of Post-Birth Labour Supply in a High- and Low- Maternal Employment Regime"

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Short version: Germany has much bigger motherhood penalties than France, but they are not more socially stratified.

That wasn’t what we expected.

🧵⬇️

I am at the end of book 1 🤣, so still many same days ahead of me. Apparently she has a vision of how it will end since the beginning so maybe the title will make sense in the end, or she is just a geometry nerd 🤷‍♂️

Well, Solvej Balle would have agreed with Bill Murrray.

Sam Altman was right - this unironically is PhD-level intelligence

LLMs tripled new book releases since 2022. Average quality fell: most new entries are slop

BUT books 100-1,000 per category are actually better than before, & pre-LLM authors got more productive. And since people only read the good books, it is net positive for readers. www.nber.org/papers/w34777

"Father, if you are willing, take this cup from me"

Given how bad most technology interventions in the class room look when properly assessed, these results for Khan Academy use in Indian class rooms are really good.
The focus on organizational structure and implementation seems key.

www.nber.org/papers/w3468...

About 10% of english teens are muslim. So potentially part of the story but definitely not all.

I would admit what you ask me to admit if i could admit it indeed.

The US Leads the World in Robots (Once You Count Correctly) - Marginal REVOLUTION If you search for data on robots you will quickly find data from the International Federation of Robotics which places South Korea in the lead with ~818 robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers, follow...

oh here is the link, my bad marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...

for once the comments section makes sense while the actual content is just mind-boggling

lol, this blogpost might be the closest thing to the essentialized meaning of "cope" i have ever seen

Dogs Build Their Vocabularies Like Toddlers

The nytimes did a popular write-up of this science mag article and there is an adorable 10 sec video of the most attentive dog listening in on a conversation in it

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/s...

'In addition to dogs with regular, “family dog” knowledge levels are dogs with an extraordinary level of word comprehension. These dogs have been called “gifted word learners” and they appear idiosyncratically across countries, breeds, and households.'

www.science.org/doi/full/10....

the main changes that might be in the books:

- a move away from fixed psychiatric conditions in favour of diagnosing potentially multiple conditions along scales of shared symptoms.

- greater focus on causes (cultural, environmental, biological)

-emphasis on how quality of life is affected.

The ‘bible for psychiatry’ is getting a rewrite: your guide to the next DSM Could the next version of the DSM be a ‘living’ document that has more focus on the causes of mental illness?

Interesting article on efforts to write the next edition of "The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)" which provides diagnositv guidelines for mental health and substance-use disorders.

www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Deprived areas see greatest pub losses, finds study The most socially deprived areas have seen the greatest loss of pubs in recent years, while supermarkets have flourished, a University of Sheffield study has found.

www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2017...

totally in line. fascinating

I am but ill qualified

Also interesting:

"39% of all adults living in more deprived areas said that they were non-drinkers, which compared with 16% in the least deprived neighbourhoods."

More adults in England are avoiding alcohol—what’s behind the trend? No, this seems to be a year round phenomenon. Latest data from the Health Survey for England 2024 show that almost a quarter of adults don’t drink alcohol.1 Maybe those public health messages are get...

Rise of the english non-drinker:

"Almost a third (32%) of 16-24 year olds—including a whopping 36% of men in this age bracket—described themselves as non-drinkers. This compared with only 15% of people aged 55-64 (17% of women, 14% of men)."

www.bmj.com/content/392/...