Andrew Winner

Bluff or Death? How to Assess Nuclear “Threats” In turbulent times, the less precise our nuclear discourse, the more fear nuclear manipulators can elicit.

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@carnegieendowment.org & Nautilus Institute on new paper series exploring dynamics around nuclear signaling and threats. The launch discussion for the first of these is Tues Feb 10 at 0900 EST - sign up today! carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/...

Some eye-popping cost estimates for the battleship, courtesy of Eric Labs of the Congressional Budget Office. 1 BBG could buy up to 7 DDGs (which, btw is 128 VLS cells and 12 CPS cells vs 672 VLS cells). In the words of the immortal Ron O’Rourke, which came first: the program or the analysis?

Do we have a sense of how “nearby” the Russian vessels were? They would have limited options to intervene, especially at a distance, unless they wanted to fire at a US CG ship or SOF helo.

Front pages of American newspapers after Jan. 6, 2021, with headlines like "Capitol Chaos," "Assault on Democracy," "Pro-Trump mob storms Capitol."

Five years ago.

USG will want to seize the tankers (with low risk), although they could choose to stop them by disabling fire first. Seizure would likely require some "high demand; low density" assets or capabilities such as VBSS (visit, board, search, seizure) teams (USN, USCG, SOF). So some limits might exist.

*6-3
So this was a HUGE question mark, and it’s fascinating that they decided this way.
The statute (32 USC 12406) at its inception MUST have meant the regular armed forces (as few/none of the other forces existed at the time, and it was about making the NG a federal reserve component of the Army)..

Research Assistant (War Studies) at King's College London Discover an exciting academic career path as a Research Assistant (War Studies) at jobs.ac.uk. Don't miss out on this job opportunity - apply today!

Research Assistant (War Studies)
King's College London - School of Security Studies School Office #skystorians 🗃️www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DPK464/r...

Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier to the Caribbean The move would be a major escalation of the Trump administration’s military campaign to target drug smugglers and threaten governments in Latin America.

Signs mounting that U.S. plans to bomb Venezuela, ostensibly with the goal of toppling the regime. Unfortunately the track record of this kind of campaign is uniformly poor. A short thread. 1/8
www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Must read thread by the best person to read on these issues!

More information is being released about Epstein by the House? And the discharge petition might have enough votes very soon?

Nuclear Deterrence Fellow (PostDoc) in Leicester | University of Leicester Recruitment Team View details and apply for this Nuclear Deterrence Fellow (PostDoc) vacancy in Leicester. The University of Leicester is proud to be part of the UK Nuclear Deterrence Network, a collaborative initia...

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Thank you Anna! So critical to have this, in detail, on the public record while it is happening.

Yes!

Looking forward to reading this one!

The @josefkorbelschool.bsky.social is searching for a tenure line position in Technology and Global Affairs at the Assistant or Associate level. I am chairing the committee and happy to talk with anyone who is interested. Please share!
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Thank you Anna!

Awful in so many ways from the personal for these people who committed their lives and careers to serve the US and its citizens to the loss of expertise and knowledge on complex issues that the US needs to know and lead in to protect its own interests.

Looking forward to reading this (and assigning chapters for my fall class)! Listen to the podcast; www.hoover.org/publications..., and buy the book!

Thank you Anna and Lawfare for such great reporting. Donating now (and should have done so earlier!).

Perfect! Thank you. I had just written you an email as you were posting this, so this answers my questions. Much appreciated! Will be in touch with any follow up.

Super job! Really creative, and I suspect, highly successful from the students' point of view as well as objective measurements of their learning and understanding of the course material.

Hmmm. This is interesting. I run a wargame in my Strategy and Policy class, and I am now wondering whether the final paper should use/build on the wargame experience in the way you have done with your practical exercise. Would be interested in seeing the paper instructions/prompt.

“Lenin had a beard! Gabby Hayes had whiskers.” George Carlin

"We hold diplomacy to much higher standards than bombing." I can easily see a dozen dissertations coming out of variations of that sentence. Why/how do we...? I know some literature that addresses this in some ways; I'm sure there are entire scads I do not know. This just struck me as really useful.

So agent Krasnov has a friend in the house ..

I relish this type of analysis.

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👋 Hello, we're the United States Institute of Peace (USIP)! We are very happy to join @bsky.app, and thrilled to announce that our website, www.usip.org, is back online! We look forward connecting here and bringing you useful content, resources and opportunities for peacebuilders around the world.

Logo for “Sirens: A Bombshell Production” featuring an amusing pun of a ln red alarm aired and an alluring but dangerous woman.

Now you can call it a come back podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...

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