Nathan Davies

TL;DR

Smokefree generation could drive youth smoking below 5% decades earlier than expected and deliver substantial long term health gains.

But relative inequalities will not close automatically – policies like targeted enforcement, licensing, media and cessation support may help narrow gap.

New paper published in Tobacco Control this week, looking at long-term effects of the proposed smokefree generation law in England. This would progressively raise the age of tobacco sale so that anyone born in 2009 or later can never legally be sold tobacco.

tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/earl...

OF COURSE drink driving laws need to be updated in England and Wales We are using antiquated regulations, and are out of step with much of the rest of the world

Great stuff here from @soozaphone.bsky.social about the flimsiness of arguments being trotted out today against lowering the drink drive limit in England & Wales
open.substack.com/pub/suzigage...

I might be one of the cynics complaining about enforcement though...

Screenshot of title page including the following abstract: To minimise confounding bias and disentangle warranted from unwarranted disparities, researchers examining sentencing discrimination have traditionally sought to control for as many legal factors as possible. However, over the past decade, a growing number of scholars have questioned this strategy, noting that many legal factors are themselves subject to judicial discretion and that controlling for them can introduce post-treatment bias. Here, we use directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to provide a formal and comprehensive assessment of the different types of bias that may arise from different choices of controls. In addition, we propose a new modelling framework to facilitate the selection of controls and reflect the model uncertainty created by the trade-off inherent in judicially-defined legal factors and other factors with a similar dual causal role. We apply this framework to examine race disparities in US federal courts and gender disparities in the England and Wales magistrates’ court. We find substantial model uncertainty for gender disparities and for race disparities affecting Hispanic offenders, rendering estimates of the latter inconclusive. Disparities against black offenders are more consistent and — under specific conditions — could be interpreted as evidence of direct discrimination.

Thrilled to share my latest paper entitled, "Estimating Discrimination in Sentencing: Distinguishing between Good and Bad Controls"

Led by @jpinasanchez.bsky.social, the paper introduces a framework for examining discrimination in criminal justice processes.

🧵 1/10

publicera.kb.se/ejels/articl...

Farage’s crypto kingmaker? Reform’s biggest donor is a digital currency investor The Reform leader made a series of pro-crypto announcements last week in Las Vegas.

A useful piece from Sam Bright on how this influence might be playing out: writesbright.substack.com/p/farages-cr...

In my piece on cryptocurrency as a commercial determinant of health, I noted that nearly all donations to Reform from 2019 to 2023 were from this man, Christopher Harborne.

The influence of crypto on current global politics has been severely underreported.

academic.oup.com/heapro/artic...

Children should have a right to play in the streets, alleys, pavements and car parks of their neighbourhoods Play isn’t just for playgrounds.

Play isn’t just for playgrounds.

Pubs to stay open until early hours in push for UK growth Exclusive: Plans for England and Wales would help the ailing hospitality sector but have attracted criticism from health experts

Lots of coverage today on these new government proposals to reform the alcohol licensing system.

I can see an inherent popular appeal to allowing pubs to stay open later, but I have a lot of thoughts about why these plans are an extremely bad idea..

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds Researchers say low- and no-calorie sweeteners appear to affect thinking and memory in middle age

"Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds"

Or does it? Let's take a look at this "study"...

www.theguardian.com/food/2025/se...

Results so stunningly clear they inspired this classic xkcd (xkcd.com/2400/):

Streeting’s bid to get Britain off the couch and save NHS £10bn Health Secretary’s Get Britain Moving campaign could be undermined by difficulty to walk in some areas

It's disappointing that the government's plan to get people moving is focused around "Go for a jog" rather than, as the evidence suggests, building environments that encourage everyday incidental exercise: the ability to walk to amenities
liveapp.inews.co.uk/category/388...

Fixed the BBC headline for them. Not sure why we tolerate the gambling industry in its current form.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Voting carries almost no personal risk (it's putting a piece of paper in a ballot box in a school hall) but will give 16 and 17 year olds a say in the political future of the country they study and work in, leading politicians to assign greater importance to their views and lives.

Alcohol is a mind-altering drug that causes severe health and social problems; its effects are more acute for children. This means exploring greater restrictions on its marketing and availability to young people, not making it more available.

Cigarettes are the most harmful available consumer product, killing 1 in 3 of its users, and are extremely addictive. Most people regret starting smoking.

The smokefree generation law, which will raise the age of sale of tobacco one year every year, will be an effective way of addressing this.

Serving in a combat role is a huge legal and ethical commitment that may involve you risking your own life and taking the lives of others.

Getting married is a huge legal and societal commitment that carries enormous consequences for you and the person you marry for the rest of your life.

To those arguing that votes at 16 means explaining why voting should be set at a different age to marrying, serving in a combat role or buying cigarettes and alcohol (all 18)...

...sure!

Whoever did this is genius

#nffc

Can academics use AI to write journal papers? What the guidelines say When is it acceptable to use AI in academic publishing?

Pretty sensible guide to generative AI use in academic peer-reviewed journals

theconversation.com/can-academic...

Reform UK to accept donations via bitcoin, Nigel Farage says Party leader says he wants UK to be a ‘crypto powerhouse’ during speech at Las Vegas conference

Guess which business Christopher Harborne, the biggest Reform UK donor of recent times, happens to be in? Surprised not to see this mentioned in the story.

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Labubus. I mean, at least they aren't Bored Apes?

Mental-health lessons in schools sound like a great idea. The trouble is, they don’t work | Lucy Foulkes All-class therapy sessions don’t help, and may even make matters worse. The evidence shows we need different solutions, says Dr Lucy Foulkes, an academic psychologist at Oxford University

I’m in the Guardian today, arguing that we should stop them all-class mental health lessons in schools

I've thought very carefully about ‘going public’ with this, because it's a sensitive argument to make, especially in the face of so many young people struggling.

(cont 🧵)

tinyurl.com/vun92cz7

You might have struggled to make the case that video games and TV were substitute goods for alcohol 20 years ago!

Alcohol's competitor is Netflix, Netflix's competitor is sleep

This is a genuinely astonishing drop in weekend violence. Check out the magnitude. What brilliant news.

Anecdote klaxon 🚨 I was with someone in ED in Nottingham's main hospital on Friday night and was taken aback by how calm it was. Busy, but calm.

H/T @stevensenior.bsky.social

Call for papers: Ethics, values and law for public health in a world in turmoil There are plans for a special supplement of the Journal of Public Health on ethics, values, and laws for building healthy communities in a world in turmoil. Ar

Paper submissions for the Journal of Public Health’s supplement on ethics and law close this Thursday 15 May.

Areas of interest:

• Moral mandate of public health
• Building capacity and resilience
• Ethical dimensions of climate change, conflict and the polycrisis

academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/p...

Going on LinkedIn used to be like eating at a dessert parlour - nice before the sugary sweetness inevitably overwhelms.

Now it's like ChatGPT has poured a bathtub of full-fat Lucozade over your sundae.