Harry Thompson

Some food for thought.

Our newsletter this month is on the topic of growth (in the broadest sense) - I've written a short blog looking at the growing 'wellbeing vervsus growth' debate we see in Wales.

cynnalcymru.com/should-we-ch...

Hello!👋 We're delighted to announce that the Living Wage Foundation have officially joined Bluesky. Keep your eyes peeled for more from us in the new year!

Thanks Joe!

Cracking thread here from Harry on Cardiff Parkway 👇

Welsh Government takes action to accelerate infrastructure planning decisions | GOV.WALES New proposals will allow infrastructure planning decisions of national significance to be taken more quickly.

To credit new CabSec, some progress has been made on this already.

But more to do and a review needed to ensure we are best-in-class on this compared to other nations and regions.

It'll continue to be a key driver of good, well-paid jobs in the future.

www.gov.wales/welsh-govern...

Increased productivity and better jobs are the goal for Wales. Our public policy has not acted in a conducive manner to this, and the levers are in our hands.

No matter what decision we make on projects, speed and certainty should be embedded into the process.

You'll probably have guessed from this thread that my personal view is that we should approve Cardiff Parkway as soon as possible.

But ultimately the lesson from Cardiff Parkway is that our processes need to change so this never happens again.

Wales (and devolution) should be using our status as a small, nimble country to make Wales one of the easiest places in the world to invest.

We should be looking to create a structural advantage - come to Wales, and the process will be easier.

Instead we've acted as blockers.

We've sent a message that if you put the time and resource into investing here, you may find yourself in a protracted purgatory whilst construction costs escalate.

Even if the answer was a 'no', it should have come a lot sooner.

Wales' biggest problem is a lack of good, well-paid jobs, with low productivity partly caused by low private investment causing this.

Whether you agree or disagree with the project, what we've done here is create a big flashing red warning light to major investors.

An update on Cardiff Parkway – January 2024 - Cardiff Hendre Lakes By Nigel Roberts, Cardiff Parkway Developments Since our update of July 2023 there have been several developments regarding our plans …

At time of writing, the project has still not had a decision.

Welsh Government decisions have added nearly three years to the process.

You can read an update on the saga at the link below.

www.cardiffhendrelakes.com/an-update-on...

This is when the Welsh Government stepped in to call in the project.

This delayed the project until a hearing in summer 2023, which was held.

The Welsh Government then changed its planning policy, which necessitated another hearing in January 2023, further delaying the project.

Despite being a privately funded project with green transport and good jobs at its heart - Wales hasn't helped itself on this project.

Work was intended to start in 2021 and to be finished in 2024.

Cardiff Council granted planning in April 2022.

Cardiff Parkway… This station should have happened already! Cardiff Parkway and the proposed Hendre Lakes Business Park[i] is in the news again.  However, despite the current discussions and the planning obfuscatio…

Prof Mark Barry has said the proposed development should have happened already.

He notes that as well as the green transport potential and connectivity benefits, many employers can't base themselves in existing city-centre office space.

swalesmetroprof.blog/2024/07/01/c...

Rolls-Royce confirm Cardiff site for potential hub creating thousands of jobs Rolls-Royce said it could potentially make a huge investment at the proposed Cardiff Parkway mainline train station and integrated business park at St Mellons in Cardiff

The business district has already attracted interest from companies with the ability to create hundreds/thousands of good quality jobs.

Most eye-catchingly, Rolls Royce have already said they want to create a major new hub there:

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...

Which brings us to Cardiff Parkway.

You may have heard of it, but what exactly is it?

It's a proposed privately-funded train station and tranport hub for the (poorly served) east of the city - and crucially, it's the centrepiece of a proposed new 188-acre business district.

This part on Wales' low productivity in particular is worth reflecting on:

'One contributing factor may be that large multi-site businesses prefer not to site R&D activity in Wales. Very low rates of private sector R&D employment in Wales bear this out.'

The problem in Wales in this area is pretty acute, finds this paper:

'Wales has a chronic and severe problem of low productivity, and shares with the wider UK two decades of stagnant productivity'.

wer.cardiffuniversitypress.org/articles/267...

Ultimately, though, productivity as a driver of good jobs is inescapable.

Prof Dani Rodrik at Harvard University, is pretty clear:

'The sine qua non (without which, not) of a good job is a high enough level of labour productivity'.

www.hamiltonproject.org/wp-content/u...

Beyond Social Partnership? Devolved Levers to Support Trade Unions in Wales - Institute of Welsh Affairs This report points to the tools Welsh Government can use to strengthen the trade unions movement in Wales to benefit the economy.

Hardly controversial, you might say.

So how do we get there? One aspect is redistribution - something I've previously written about.

Places with best outcomes have strong mechanisms for equality hard-wired into economic system, ie strong trade unions.

www.iwa.wales/our-work/wor...

The run-ons from increasing job quality would be significant. More money in people's pockets, more young people able to make a successful future in Wales, a bigger tax base for funding public services, and more.

In my view the key outcome we need to be focusing on is job quality - that's the one that makes a real difference to people's lives.

We need to get to a situation where people are paid better and treated better at work in Wales.

We often hear about the Welsh economy being at the bottom of various league tables. Lower pay, lower productivity, lower investment, lower job quality.

Lots of talk about Cardiff Parkway recently, with a decision apparently imminent.

A few (surface-level) thoughts on the issue at hand and what it says about economic policy-making in Wales...

Nobody got rich on their own.
Elizabeth Warren's observation also underpins the argument as to why it is right for the rich to say their fair share of tax.

Looking forward to launching my new IWA report on 5th December, Cenhadaeth Cymru: Mission Wales, which explores how, through applying mission-driven principles, Welsh Government can transform the nation and tackle our grand challenges.

Register to attend at: www.iwa.wales/events/cenha...

You’re probs right about that one. It was my thought too.

But speech was really good I think - very human and funny.

Not afraid to make jokes a pol usually wouldn’t, both in speech and in interviews (about driving ban etc). Think you can really get away with that more than people think

I agree with what I think you’re suggesting here. Cut-through is so hard to achieve at devolved level, isn’t it.

Challenge to get FM’s personality across to people who aren’t attending party conference speeches.

People could come away with a very different impression based on limited exposure

100%.

The right has seemingly been the predominant beneficiary from this new environment so far.

Welsh Labour may have a real asset here - ‘a leader for our times’ indeed.