Francisco Rodriguez-Sanchez's Avatar

Francisco Rodriguez-Sanchez

@frodsan.bsky.social

Computational Ecologist. Associate Professor @unisevilla.bsky.social. ecology, biogeography, statistics, rstats, GIS, science. https://frodriguezsanchez.net

3,365 Followers  |  156 Following  |  234 Posts  |  Joined: 18.02.2024  |  2.1983

Latest posts by frodsan.bsky.social on Bluesky

3/ If using AI, I want people to learn from it. So I'm increasingly asking questions like

What is the code doing here?
How do you know it's correct?
How have you checked it?
How could it fail?
And how could you make it more robust to failure?

13.02.2026 10:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

2/ Many people use AI to just get things done, without really understanding the output. I'm seeing this a lot around (not only students). It's fast but you learn nothing. It's somewhat risky. And it's a problem if you then have to debug

13.02.2026 10:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
How AI assistance impacts coding speed and skill formation

How AI assistance impacts coding speed and skill formation

This is quite interesting, with implications for #teaching.

AI can make you work faster or slower, learn nothing or a lot, depending on how you use it

www.anthropic.com/research/AI-...

1/

13.02.2026 10:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Rare, dangerous side effects of some COVID-19 vaccines explained โ€œGroundbreakingโ€ study uncovers why adenovirus-based shots caused life-threatening blood clots and bleeding in some people

Five years after the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines started, it seems the mystery of why the Astra-Zeneca and J&J vaccines led to a rare but deadly side effect of unusual blood clots and bleeding has finally been solved. โ€จ
It's a fascinating case of molecular mimicry that may help make vaccine safer.๐Ÿงช

11.02.2026 22:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 591    ๐Ÿ” 235    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 11    ๐Ÿ“Œ 21
Simulated null distribution for data with a sample size of 100, difference in group means of 5, and a p-value of 0.142

Simulated null distribution for data with a sample size of 100, difference in group means of 5, and a p-value of 0.142

Simulated null distribution of a slope of 0.8 and p-value of 0.002

Simulated null distribution of a slope of 0.8 and p-value of 0.002

Finally, we have to decide if the p-value meets an evidentiary standard or threshold that would provide us with enough evidence that we arenโ€™t in the null world (or, in more statsy terms, enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis).

There are lots of possible thresholds. By convention, most people use a threshold (often shortened to ฮฑ) of 0.05, or 5%. But thatโ€™s not required! You could have a lower standard with an ฮฑ of 0.1 (10%), or a higher standard with an ฮฑ of 0.01 (1%).

Statistically significant
The p-value is < 0.001 and our threshold for ฮฑ is 0.05

In a world where there is no relationship between x and y, the probability of seeing a slope of at least 0.901 is < 0.1%

Since < 0.001 is less than 0.05, we have enough evidence to say that the slope is statistically significant.

Finally, we have to decide if the p-value meets an evidentiary standard or threshold that would provide us with enough evidence that we arenโ€™t in the null world (or, in more statsy terms, enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis). There are lots of possible thresholds. By convention, most people use a threshold (often shortened to ฮฑ) of 0.05, or 5%. But thatโ€™s not required! You could have a lower standard with an ฮฑ of 0.1 (10%), or a higher standard with an ฮฑ of 0.01 (1%). Statistically significant The p-value is < 0.001 and our threshold for ฮฑ is 0.05 In a world where there is no relationship between x and y, the probability of seeing a slope of at least 0.901 is < 0.1% Since < 0.001 is less than 0.05, we have enough evidence to say that the slope is statistically significant.

Evidentiary standards

When thinking about p-values and thresholds, I like to imagine myself as a judge or a member of a jury. Many legal systems around the world have formal evidentiary thresholds or standards of proof. If prosecutors provide evidence that meets a threshold (i.e. goes beyond a reasonable doubt, or shows evidence on a balance of probabilities), the judge or jury can rule guilty. If thereโ€™s not enough evidence to clear the standard or threshold, the judge or jury has to rule not guilty.

With p-values:

If the probability of seeing an effect or difference (or ฮด) in a null world is less than 5% (or whatever the threshold is), we rule it statistically significant and say that the difference does not fit in that world. Weโ€™re pretty confident that itโ€™s not zero.
If the p-value is larger than the threshold, we do not have enough evidence to claim that ฮด doesnโ€™t come from a world of where thereโ€™s no difference. We donโ€™t know if itโ€™s not zero.
Importantly, if the difference is not significant, that does not mean that there is no difference. It just means that we canโ€™t detect one if there is. If a prosecutor doesnโ€™t provide sufficient evidence to clear a standard or threshold, it does not mean that the defendant didnโ€™t do whatever theyโ€™re charged withโ€ โ€”it means that the judge or jury canโ€™t detect guilt.

Evidentiary standards When thinking about p-values and thresholds, I like to imagine myself as a judge or a member of a jury. Many legal systems around the world have formal evidentiary thresholds or standards of proof. If prosecutors provide evidence that meets a threshold (i.e. goes beyond a reasonable doubt, or shows evidence on a balance of probabilities), the judge or jury can rule guilty. If thereโ€™s not enough evidence to clear the standard or threshold, the judge or jury has to rule not guilty. With p-values: If the probability of seeing an effect or difference (or ฮด) in a null world is less than 5% (or whatever the threshold is), we rule it statistically significant and say that the difference does not fit in that world. Weโ€™re pretty confident that itโ€™s not zero. If the p-value is larger than the threshold, we do not have enough evidence to claim that ฮด doesnโ€™t come from a world of where thereโ€™s no difference. We donโ€™t know if itโ€™s not zero. Importantly, if the difference is not significant, that does not mean that there is no difference. It just means that we canโ€™t detect one if there is. If a prosecutor doesnโ€™t provide sufficient evidence to clear a standard or threshold, it does not mean that the defendant didnโ€™t do whatever theyโ€™re charged withโ€ โ€”it means that the judge or jury canโ€™t detect guilt.

I just whipped up this little #QuartoPub site last week that demonstrates how I teach p-values/hyp-testing through simulation both with live OJS and with #rstats, and I think it's super neat! It has examples for diff-in-means, diff-in-props, and regression slopes nullworlds.andrewheiss.com #statsky

11.02.2026 21:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 132    ๐Ÿ” 26    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
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Although the next conference is still a way off, weโ€™ve created this account to share updates on venue and dates, as well as news and publications on FRUGIVORES & SEED DISPERSAL

Artwork: Marรญa Leรณn Ilustraciรณn

05.02.2026 16:43 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 26    ๐Ÿ” 12    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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๐ŸŽ‰ ยกVuelven los encuentros!
Jueves, 12 de marzo (18:30-20:00), para compartir conocimientos sobre R, estadรญstica, ciencia de datos y programaciรณn.

๐Ÿ“ Lugar: Instituto de Matemรกticas de la Universidad de Sevilla (IMUS) Av. de la Reina Mercedes, s/n ยท Sevilla
Meetup: www.meetup.com/sevilla-r-us...
1/2

06.02.2026 16:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Creating Exercises โ€“ Quarto Live Documentation

Great advice there! Thanks

Perhaps it might be useful to mention quarto-live in addition to learnr for making interactive tutorials with exercises?

r-wasm.github.io/quarto-live/...

07.02.2026 11:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Ten simple rules for teaching data science Teaching data science presents unique challenges and opportunities that cannot be fully addressed by simply borrowing pedagogical strategies from its parent disciplines of statistics and computer scie...

"Ten simple rules for teaching data science": arxiv.org/abs/2602.02874

A new preprint by @minecr.bsky.social and myself. We'd love any feedback!

04.02.2026 16:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 78    ๐Ÿ” 26    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
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dplyr 1.2.0 dplyr 1.2.0 fills in some important gaps in dplyr's API: we've added a new complement to `filter()` focused on dropping rows, and we've expanded the `case_when()` family with three new recoding and re...

dplyr 1.2.0 is out now and we are SO excited!

- `filter_out()` for dropping rows

- `recode_values()`, `replace_values()`, and `replace_when()` that join `case_when()` as a complete family of recoding/replacing tools

These are huge quality of life wins for #rstats!

tidyverse.org/blog/2026/02...

04.02.2026 11:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 459    ๐Ÿ” 133    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 12    ๐Ÿ“Œ 14

Thank you @zeileis.org, makes sense

To give credit in publications, I think I'll keep using whatever package authors chose in their CITATION file. But I can see how the CRAN DOI can be very useful in many circumstances

04.02.2026 10:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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What's new in the world of Generalized Additive Models YouTube video by Bottom of the Heap

๐Ÿšจ GAMs have moved onโ€”so itโ€™s time for an update.

On March 3, 2026 (17:00โ€“19:00 CET) Iโ€™ll be livestreaming an updated introduction to Generalized Additive Models in R

๐Ÿ“บ YouTube livestream link: youtube.com/live/A9U8e1K...

#RStats #mgcv #GAMs #gratia #statistics ๐Ÿงช

03.02.2026 12:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 104    ๐Ÿ” 46    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I don't know if it's feasible that even though the DOI redirects to the CRAN page, the citation metadata (deposited at Crossref) reflect those of the CITATION file

03.02.2026 07:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@tjmahr.com yeah my point is that if we use CRAN DOI to cite packages, we are not citing them the way package authors have stated explicitly in the CITATION file. It'd be nice to respect that?

03.02.2026 07:23 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I recall reading @zeileis.org that CRAN DOI metadata are independent of the CITATION file, even if the latter exists. Which sometimes might be unfortunate if package authors are not cited the way they would prefer...

02.02.2026 19:32 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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So if the package has a CITATION file, the CRAN DOI metadata should reflect what is stated in CITATION? That's not what I get. See example with lme4 too. What am I doing wrong?

02.02.2026 19:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
CRAN DOI-generated citation of ggplot2 package:

Wickham, H., Chang, W., Henry, L., Pedersen, T. L., Takahashi, K., Wilke, C., Woo, K., Yutani, H., Dunnington, D., Brand, T. van den, Posit, & Pbc. (2025). ggplot2: Create elegant data visualisations using the grammar of graphics (Versiรณn 4.0.1) [Software]. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ggplot2/index.html

CRAN DOI-generated citation of ggplot2 package: Wickham, H., Chang, W., Henry, L., Pedersen, T. L., Takahashi, K., Wilke, C., Woo, K., Yutani, H., Dunnington, D., Brand, T. van den, Posit, & Pbc. (2025). ggplot2: Create elegant data visualisations using the grammar of graphics (Versiรณn 4.0.1) [Software]. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ggplot2/index.html

ggplot2 preferred citation as stated in the CITATION file:

 To cite ggplot2 in publications, please use

Wickham H (2016). ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis. Springer-Verlag New York. ISBN 978-3-319-24277-4, https://ggplot2.tidyverse.org.

ggplot2 preferred citation as stated in the CITATION file: To cite ggplot2 in publications, please use Wickham H (2016). ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis. Springer-Verlag New York. ISBN 978-3-319-24277-4, https://ggplot2.tidyverse.org.

Yes. But I'm still confused it overrides authors' preferred citation as stated in the CITATION file?

Compare CRAN DOI citation (left) vs CITATION file (right) #rstats

01.02.2026 12:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Screenshot of Prism - I asked it to create a methods, participants, results, and discussion seconds. It did so within 54 seconds...

Screenshot of Prism - I asked it to create a methods, participants, results, and discussion seconds. It did so within 54 seconds...

OpenAI just released Prism, a LaTeX editor with embedded ChatGPT for free.
Writing a paper has never been easier.
Clogging the scientific publishing pipeline has never been easier.
It took me 54 seconds to write up an experiment I did not actually conduct.

prism.openai.com

27.01.2026 23:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 460    ๐Ÿ” 192    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 18    ๐Ÿ“Œ 78
igure 1: Overview of results: (Left) We find a significant decrease in library-specific skills (conceptual understanding, code reading, and debugging) among workers using AI assistance for completing tasks with a new python library. (Right) We categorize AI usage patterns and found three high skill development patterns where participants stay cognitively engaged when using AI assistance.

igure 1: Overview of results: (Left) We find a significant decrease in library-specific skills (conceptual understanding, code reading, and debugging) among workers using AI assistance for completing tasks with a new python library. (Right) We categorize AI usage patterns and found three high skill development patterns where participants stay cognitively engaged when using AI assistance.

"How AI Impacts Skill Formation", by Judy Hanwen Shen and Alex Tamkin, both working at Anthropic: arxiv.org/abs/2601.20245

30.01.2026 08:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Building reproducible analytical pipelines with R

I'd say yes, in general. But beware of external dependencies beyond R packages. Tools like rix or Docker help you capture (and recreate) the full computational environment required for your project

raps-with-r.dev

29.01.2026 17:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

ยกMuchas gracias! Totalmente de acuerdo en la importancia de la defensa y, probablemente, la conveniencia de un comitรฉ externo con reuniones anuales. IMO ayuda a encaminar la tesis desde el principio y si todo va bien, el requisito de publicaciรณn serรญa casi innecesario...

28.01.2026 21:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Interesado en escuchar opiniones sobre esto ๐Ÿ‘†๐Ÿผ. ยฟCuรกl es la postura de @fpuinvestiga.bsky.social @redpredoctoralcsic.bsky.social @fjiprecarios.bsky.social ? Gracias

28.01.2026 16:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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We are hiring a postdoctoral researcher!๐ŸŒฒ ๐ŸŒณ ๐ŸŒ

๐Ÿ“Interested in boreal and temperate forest productivity and respiration?
๐Ÿ’ป Like to work with large datasets, remote sensing and models?
๐Ÿ”๏ธ Love an alpine setting in a small town?

Come and join us at KIT!

Application details: t1p.de/qctj7

22.01.2026 11:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 31    ๐Ÿ” 40    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿซ‚

24.01.2026 10:29 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Last term I tried an experiment: I walked into my Tech and Design Ethics class, admitted that I had *no idea* what to do about ChatGPT - so I would let them figure it out.

As in: their first project was to decide and write the ChatGPT policy for the class.

Here's what happened:

22.01.2026 23:36 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2305    ๐Ÿ” 845    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 26    ๐Ÿ“Œ 230
Examples of how to use the new futurize package

Examples of how to use the new futurize package

Oooh love this. Easiest way to parallelise anything in #rstats. Just add futurize() to your favourite function call

www.jottr.org/2026/01/22/f...

Thanks @henrikbengtsson.bsky.social HT @rstats.blaze.email

23.01.2026 09:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 38    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Zotero Blog ยป Blog Archive ยป Zotero 8 Zotero is a free, easy-to-use tool to help you collect, organize, cite, and share research.

Zotero 8 is out in stable: www.zotero.org/blog/zotero-8/
A bunch of new stuff -- the new citation dialog especially is a huge (and long overdue) improvement; massively speeds up anything I do in Word/GDocs with Zotero

22.01.2026 19:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 61    ๐Ÿ” 32    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Thanks Luis. Very helpful resource

22.01.2026 08:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Journals publishing software papers in ecology, evolution & environment

Nice initiative! I've just added it to the directory of journals publishing software papers in ecology, evolution and biogeography

pakillo.github.io/journals-sof...

20.01.2026 08:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Biogeography Biogeography is an academic-owned, diamond Open Access journal, published by the academic, non-profit, Stanford University Press (SUP), using the Public Knowledge Projectโ€™s Open Journal Systems platfo...

Back from holiday and it's finally time to post about this. I am taking on a section editor role for the new diamond open access journal Biogeography, put together by @biogeographyjfab.bsky.social. That means that it's free to publish and free to read. (thread)

biog.journals.sup.org/index.php/bi...

20.01.2026 02:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 23    ๐Ÿ” 15    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@frodsan is following 20 prominent accounts