Christine Farquharson

Bit weird that none of these articles mention that family hubs already exist and were set up by the last government. This an expansion and bolstering of them not a completely new thing.

In light of today's announcements on Family Hubs, this @theifs.bsky.social podcast is looking even more timely!

A great discussion with @officialedballs.bsky.social and @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social on the benefits of Sure Start and the political economy of keeping early childhood programmes going.

The government should not ban public servants from speaking in public | Institute for Government New guidance will damage the quality of government and public discourse.

“This new guidance will damage the quality of government and public discourse.” Important new comment from me and @alexgathomas.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gove...

Popularity of new childcare entitlements could leave spending much higher than initially forecast | Institute for Fiscal Studies New childcare entitlements have proven popular – meaning spending from 2026 onwards could be £1 billion higher than originally forecast.

Thanks to @nuffieldfoundation.org for supporting much of the work that made this analysis possible - not something you want to tackle from scratch on Spending Review night!

ifs.org.uk/articles/pop...

What is clear is that higher-than-expected take-up = higher-than-expected costs.
Meeting childcare commitments looks much more expensive than we had thought in March 2023.
That adds to the pressure on other public services.

So where does that leave us?
Childcare entitlements are really popular.
Could be great news - if it's driven by more parents in work. But it's still too early to tell.

The Spending Review announced that spending would rise by £1.6bn in cash terms over the SR.

A bit over half of this reflects the entitlement rollout anticipated in March 2023.

But there's ~£600m to top up spending. That will meet most, but not all, of the spending pressures.

But - when these entitlements were first announced in March 2023, then-Chancellor Jeremy Hunt planned to spend £4bn a year from 2026-27 onwards.

So the long-term cost of childcare entitlements is on track to be £1 billion (!!) higher than we had originally thought.

A reasonable forecast for spending from 2026-27 onwards - once entitlements are fully rolled out - is around £5bn in today's prices.

Could easily end up several hundred million lower or higher.

But childcare entitlements are being rolled out over time. So the same % underestimate of take-up becomes a bigger deal in £ over time, as it applies to more hours.

Side note: almost all local authorities saw higher-than-expected take-up last year.

The exceptions were (almost) all in London, where there is some evidence that eligible and interested parents are less likely to actually find a childcare spot. Might point to capacity issues?

But we've already seen a BIG upwards revision in spending plans for 2024-25, driven by a big increase in expected take-up.

We now think spending on new entitlements last year was £500m - 28%!! - higher than we had thought in December 2023.

Forecasting demand for new childcare entitlements for working parents with kids under 3 was always going to be hard.

Depends on:
* how many families are eligible
* how many families will move into paid work so they become eligible
* take-up amongst eligible families

Difficult!

There are two issues here:
1) The big in-year revisions to spending we have already seen (for 2024-25)
2) What higher-than-expected take-up might mean for costs in future years, once entitlements are fully rolled out

Spending on the new childcare entitlements next year could be £1bn higher than initially forecast in March 2023 - a 25% increase.

So what's going on? I break down the numbers that @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out in @theifs.bsky.social post-Spending Review briefing.

One weird thing about the efficiency drive announced yesterday is that we got

(1) a detailed, bottom-up piece of work from the Office for Value for Money on the scope for savings in each department

(2) top-down plans for all departments to make the precise same % cut to admin budgets

Super useful from @lukesibieta.bsky.social on school funding choices.

Protecting the total core schools budget means real-terms spending per pupil will rise by around 3%.

We don't know anything on colleges yet - reminder that real-terms per-pupil protection there needs an extra £300m in today's £.

The policy menu for school lunches: options and trade-offs in expanding free school meals in England | Institute for Fiscal Studies The expansion of free school meals has been frequently discussed. IFS researchers consider the costs and benefits of different options.

Still hungry for more?

Check out our response to today's announcement here: ifs.org.uk/articles/ben...

And our @theifs.bsky.social's report on all things free school meals, joint with Jonathan Cribb, @awmckendrick.bsky.social and Tom Waters: ifs.org.uk/publications...

And speaking of funding - schools are expecting to get £2.61 per meal.

If funding had risen in line with inflation after universal infant FSM were introduced in 2014, that would be around £3.18 per meal.

That's going to mean shifting around a lot of data -
🏫 for schools trying to keep on top of their entitlements
💰 for national policymakers adapting their school funding spreadsheets
and (of course)
🎓for education researchers who use FSM as a measure of disadvantage (and extra school £).

And a couple other points that might fly under the radar, but will end up being practically important.

First, today's policy announcement is just about free school meals. Newly-eligible kids will NOT attract pupil premium funding (which up until now has been for all on means-tested FSM).

But you can also look at a broader menu (!) of policy options, beyond school food.

Colleagues @theifs.bsky.social estimate the policy will bring about 100k kids out of poverty. Use their (very cool) tool to see for yourself how that stacks up against other policy options:
ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

What about those long-term effects?

Expanding eligibility to all families on UC targets those with low, but not the very lowest, incomes.

If what you care about is reducing child poverty, this is both cheaper and more targeted at those on low incomes than other options, like universal provision.

The government reckons the new policy will bring another 500,000 or so kids into eligibility next year.

That's a chunky increase compared to the 1.6m kids in Year 3-11 currently getting means-tested FSM - but most of the impact of the policy is yet to come.

Why "in the long term"?

Transitional protections introduced in 2018 have meant *lots* more kids currently get FSM - that's the main driver of the big rise in eligibility we've seen.

More kids currently getting free lunches = lower costs from expanding eligibility, but also fewer day-one winners.

The government has announced that, from next year, free school meals will be extended to all children whose families receive Universal Credit.

Currently, families need an after-tax income below £7,400 to be eligible - removing the cap will bring 1.7m kids into eligibility in the long term.

IFS Associate Director @ckfarquharson.bsky.social gives evidence to @commonshealth.bsky.social tomorrow at 9:30am on the provision of early years services and our recent report on the impact of Sure Start centres.

Find out more here: committees.parliament.uk/event/24353/...

What a fantastic choice for us @theifs.bsky.social!
@helenmiller.bsky.social is an incredible colleague, a terrific economist and an extraordinary communicator - I can't imagine anyone better to lead this new chapter at IFS.

This photo shows a person holding a large pizza with a variety of toppings, including what appears to be ham and pineapple, suggesting it might be a Hawaiian pizza. The individual is smiling broadly, indicating enjoyment or pride in presenting the pizza. The setting appears to be indoors, possibly in a restaurant or a dining area, as there are chairs and a table visible in the background. The pizza is held on a white plate, and the person is wearing a light-colored shirt.

It is National Pizza Day, so this is your periodic reminder that Hawaiian Pizza was invented by a Greek-Canadian named Sam Panopoulos at his Satellite Restaurant in Chatham, Ontario in 1962.
A True Canadian Hero 🫡

Ofsted quiz: Can you spot a ‘strong’ rating from a ‘secure’ one? Ofsted's proposed 'toolkits' have been criticised as being too unclear - but do they make sense?

Schools Week have devised a quiz!

Higher or Lower! Can you spot which statement in the Ofsted framework is for the higher grade?!

schoolsweek.co.uk/ofsted-quiz-...