Ben Chu

I'm presenting The World This Weekend today.

We're dedicating the programme to Ukraine.

- Will Putin heed the US ultimatum to deliver a ceasefire by Friday?

- Will Trump follow through with new sanctions if Putin doesn't?

- What do Ukrainians think?

Join us at 1pm on Radio 4/BBC Sounds 📻

Note that US imports from Canada and Mexico that qualify under the USMCA don't pay the 30%/25% tariff rate & there are also lots of exemptions for electronics from China from their 30% tariff www.reuters.com/markets/us-e...

Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency

Latest tariff rates from here: www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

US 2024 goods imports data by country from here: www.bea.gov/data/intl-tr...

Here's the latest Trump tariff rates by country plotted against the biggest sources of US goods imports - the bigger the circle, the more the US imports from that country 👇

BBC Radio 4 - The Strange Death of Cultural Originality? Is cultural originality dead? Ben Chu investigates.

...And if you're intrigued by the discussion of how financial incentives and audience expectations shape the popular culture that people create, do have a listen to my Radio 4 documentary on the subject from earlier this year🎧 👇

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

Three-minute heroes: TikTok made songs shorter but artists are pushing back with longer tracks with more emotional resonance - BBC News Pop songs got drastically shorter in the streaming era. But new BBC research shows that trend is over

Really great bit "scrolly" story telling here from BBC colleagues and the Verify data team on the declining length of hit pop songs 👇...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/resourc...

How Trump's tariffs are already impacting Americans The US is seeing increased tariffs income, but there are signs of some countries diverting trade from America.

Read more in our Verify analysis here 👇

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

5) The prices that Americans are paying in stores is starting to rise because of the tariffs...

4) China is buying more soybeans from Brazil, shifting away from US producers...

3) A sharp drop in Chinese exports to the US, though China has increased its sales to others...

2) A widening, not a narrowing of the US trade deficit, due to stockpiling and no boost to exports...

As Trump's 1 August tariff deadline approaches, here are five ways Trump's trade war is affecting the US and global economy.

1) A surge in tariff revenue for the US government...

The US-EU trade deal in numbers - how it compares to UK deal Donald Trump has struck an agreement with the European Union to reduce tariffs - what will that mean for the UK?

Not just because I'm quoted, but this from @benchu.bsky.social is a good explanation of why the UK-US deal may not be better than the EU-US one... www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

...We should find out on Friday - when Trump is due to sign an executive order putting the 15% tariff regime on EU imports into effect - which reading is correct i.e whether EU pharmaceutical imports into the US are going to be paying 15% or 0%.

...Whereas the EU Commission fact sheet says the EU will continue to pay the US MFN tariffs (i.e 0%) for now - and that 15% is the *maximum* the EU will pay when/if the Trump administration imposes new sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals... ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

On that lack of clarity point, the White House Fact Sheet on the deal says EU pharmaceutical exports to the US will be subject to a 15% tariff (the existing US tariff on them is 0% & pharmaceuticals were excluded from the 10% reciprocal tariffs) ...
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

The US-EU trade deal in numbers - how it compares to UK deal Donald Trump has struck an agreement with the European Union to reduce tariffs - what will that mean for the UK?

How does the EU agreement with the US compare with the UK's - and are there potential economic benefits now arising for the UK?

The lack of clarity on the EU agreement means the answers are not clear cut

My analysis 👇

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

...For context, the OBR has estimated that the Government's planning reforms will boost the level of the UK's productivity (which underlies GDP) by around 0.2% by 2029.

Shows how the Trump trade war is creating a serious headwind to the Government's growth plans
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...

Here's the IMF's latest estimate of the cost of Trump's trade war on the UK economy. 👇

-0.3% lower GDP by 2026

Using the OBR 2025-26 forecast for UK GDP of £2.9 trillion, that works out as roughly £9bn in lower national output than otherwise

www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...

For those who understand French - my interview with L’Express on my new book Exile Economics 👇

What’s happened to resident doctors’ pay since 2008? Resident doctors in England say pay is at the core of their dispute with the government, but what’s actually happened to their pay over the past 17 years?

My BBC Verify explainer 👇

www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

My new book Exile Economics has been reviewed by @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social

"A really interesting read, enlivened by the author’s reporting and a lovely writing style."

www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/index.p...

To be precise, projected headroom was £8.9bn in March 2024 and £9.9bn in October 2024 obr.uk/download/mar...

...The Office for Budget Responsibility's estimate of the October 2024 Budget headroom vs the chosen fiscal rule was virtually the same as the headroom vs the [then] chosen fiscal rule in March 2024 - just under £10bn 👇

obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...

Keir Starmer tells the Commons liason committee "the fiscal headroom we put in at the [October 2024] Budget was considerably more than the last government put in their last budget, by some measure."

That's incorrect...

Israel levelling thousands of Gaza civilian buildings in controlled demolitions - BBC News Investigation by BBC Verify using satellite images and verified footage to show the extent of destruction in Gaza, where the Israeli military have carried out demolitions to raze entire towns and subu...

Powerful visual investigation by my Verify colleagues 👇

www.bbc.co.uk/news/resourc...

Should add that most economists think payroll data is still giving a better steer than the Labour Force Survey when it comes to the current direction of the jobs market

Labour Force Survey data here: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...

Payroll data here: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...