Ben Chu

...Rachel Reeves' freeze in repayment thresholds in the 2025 Budget did make the system less progressive (with those in the middle being projected to pay more as a result than those at the top) - but the big reduction in the progressivity of the system was the 2022 shift from Plan 2 to Plan 5

...& gap between lifetime repayments of those on higher incomes & lower incomes now projected to be smaller than under the previous system.

In part because Plan 5 got rid of the RPI+ 3% interest rate on loans - means people on higher incomes projected to accrue less debt and so pay less back

....also worth noting that, on this basis, the impact of the Conservatives' 2022 reforms (creating Plan 5 loans for uni cohorts after 2023) was to make the system less progressive i.e those with higher incomes are projected to pay back less relative to the previous system...

Annual report on education spending in England: 2025–26 | Institute for Fiscal Studies This annual report compares spending across different stages of education in England and analyses the pressures and choices facing policymakers.

...largely a function of the fact borrowers don't start repayments until they earn £26,065/year & the cancellation of any remaining debt after 30 years.

IFS data here 👇...

Regarding the debate over whether the English student loan system is "progressive" or "regressive" it's worth noting IFS calculations suggest over the lifetime of existing graduates (on Plan 2 loans), the highest earners will pay more than those in the middle & much more than the lowest earners...

Live tables on Energy Performance of Buildings Certificates The latest data tables on Energy Performance of Buildings Certificates.

...Raw data from MHCLG here: www.gov.uk/government/s...

Housing tracker: Find out about new homes in your area How many new homes have been added in your area and what is the government's target?

...if you're in England you can look up the housing delivery rate in your local area on BBC Verify's online tracker tool...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Some tentative signs of a pick-up in new home delivery in England from the latest official data (based on Energy Performance Certificates lodged in the second half of 2025)

Though still some way short of the delivery rate needed to hit the 1.5 million target for the Parliament...

Very excited to be part of launching Verify on Tour! This nationwide outreach initiative is designed to help young people develop essential skills and knowledge to navigate the world of digital media. We deliver events both in-person and virtually for schools, colleges, and sixth forms.

Some context for the Yvette Cooper interview on Radio 4 Today this morning 👇

...Note that official projections from the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) suggest even granting new exploration licences would not change this sharply declining trend of North Sea oil and gas production over the coming decades www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-and-ins...

Does EU and US trade account for a third of global trade?

I’ve seen this claim made a couple of times and I snagged on it because it sounds high.

Having looked into it, I think that statement is potentially misleading.

Thread...1/

...Breakdown shows it's due to the sharp decline in UK oil and gas production over that time...

Likely source of Trump's claim the UK is producing a third of the total energy as it was in 1999: UK energy stats "Availability and consumption of primary fuels and equivalents" - 94k thousand tonnes of oil equivalent in 2024 vs 297k in 1999 (-70%)... www.gov.uk/government/s...

The world had 1,100GW of installed wind power in 2024 - around half of it is China 👇
ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu...

Trump tells Davos "China makes almost all of the windmills and yet I haven't been able to find any windfarms in China"

IRENASTAT data shows China had 479GW of onshore wind capacity in 2024 & 41GW of offshore wind capacity

pxweb.irena.org/pxweb/en/IRE...

DonaldTrump tells Davos the US gas price is "now below $2.50 in many states, $2.30 in most states"

The latest data from the US EIA shows the US average was $2.779 on 12 Jan 2026: www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga...

Sources:

WTO: stats.wto.org

US BEA: www.bea.gov/data/intl-tr...

EU: www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infograph...

ENDS

Calculations here & comments/corrections welcome...

10/ docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

The US data has total bilateral EU-US trade (imports and expoerts) slightly lower at $1.5 trillion.

But either way, that would be around 2-3% of global trade in 2024 (total exports and imports combined of $66 trillion) on the basis of the WTO figures for that year...9/

This same document estimates that “in 2024 transatlantic trade in goods and services reached over €1.68 trillion”

Note that this figure is bilateral exports and imports *combined*.

That’s equivalent to around $1.8 trillion based on the 2024 exchange rate...8/

EU-US trade: facts and figures The EU and the US have the biggest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world. In 2023, transatlantic trade in goods and services reached €1.6 trillion.

And this EU factsheet claims "together they [the US and EU] represent almost 30% of global trade in goods and services”...7/

www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infograph...

World trade in goods and services - an overview description

There’s some separate EU analysis which supports this, calculating that the combined US and EU share of global exports was 28% and 32% of global imports in 2022...6/

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta...

So that suggests the EU and the US export trade combined ($3.2tr + $4.5tr) was around 23% of the total ($33tr).

And the EU and the US import trade combined was around 26% of the total...5/

Total US exports to the rest of the world in that year were $3.2 trillion ($4.2 trillion in imports).

And total EU exports to the rest of the world in that year were $4.5 trillion ($4.1 trillion in imports)...4/

Here’s the figures.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) the value of total goods and services exports in 2024 was around $33 trillion (and $33 trillion in imports)...3/

TLDR the TOTAL trade of the EU and the US with ALL COUNTRIES is possibly around 30% of GLOBAL trade.

But US and EU trade with EACH OTHER is likely less than 3% of global trade...2/

Does EU and US trade account for a third of global trade?

I’ve seen this claim made a couple of times and I snagged on it because it sounds high.

Having looked into it, I think that statement is potentially misleading.

Thread...1/

....Also 5 key insights from the book, published by @johnmurrays.bsky.social, here 👇

bsky.app/profile/benc...

...And if that piques your interest, lots of options to buy here.

The paperback edition is coming out in March 2026 👇
linktr.ee/exileeconomics