Lukas Warode

📢 New Publication Alert!
Our (@msaeltzer.bsky.social)
latest article, "Issue congruence between candidates' Twitter communication and constituencies in an MMES: Migration as an exemplary case", has just been published in Parliamentary Affairs.
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

Title and abstract of the paper.

Now out in Social Networks

Network analysis aspires to be “anticategorical,” yet its basic units—relationships—are usually readily categorized ('friendship,' 'love'). Thus, a nontrivial cultural typification is asserted in the very building blocks of most network analyses.

doi.org/10.1016/j.so...

a cartoon character from south park says " i m gonna need your help " ALT: a cartoon character from south park says " i m gonna need your help "

Calling all parliaments experts!
Say there's a debate in parliament, and a related vote. How frequently would these be on different days? different weeks? I don't mean different readings of bills, because these will also have different debates.
@sgparliaments.bsky.social #polisky #parlisky

Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️

Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.

#Democracy #PoliticalScience

🧵

url: osf.io/usqdb_v2

Happy to share my first published article based on my PhD in Party Politics with @journals.sagepub.com in open access!

doi.org/10.1177/1354...

Congrats, that is very interesting and great work! I work on something similar, but from a broader ideological perspective, in other words how ideological associations are asymmetrically used across the spectrum. Your work adds strong particular evidence for my overall argument, happy to see that!

The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…

Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Quite a strong final statement: "Descriptive research is important and it is a pity that the general obsession with causal estimates disincentivizes researchers from attempting to publish careful and detailed description."

2/2 In the second paper, which I will present in Barcelona @sgparliaments.bsky.social next week, @ortuttnauer.com and I investigate the dynamics of how and when parliamentary voting and speech-making align. I’m only hoping for good air conditioning, as I‘m sure about an amazing crowd again 🙂‍↔️

1/2 Another year, another @epsanet.bsky.social This year I had two papers accepted, but no visual proof that I presented joint work with Thomas Bräuninger on (the problems of) dynamic scale usage. I hope some nice people will capture 📸 me again next year in the Post-EPSA era @epssnet.bsky.social

2/2 In the second paper, which I will present in Barcelona @sgparliaments.bsky.social next week, @ortuttnauer.com and I investigate the dynamics of how and when parliamentary voting and speech-making align. I’m hoping for good air conditioning, as I’m sure the crowd will be amazing again!

So is it pronounced EPSS or EPSS? #epsa2025

In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)

Political expression of academics on Twitter - Nature Human Behaviour An analysis of nearly 100,000 academics on Twitter reveals strong progressive stances on climate and social issues, driven by a small, vocal subset. The study highlights potential gaps between academi...

A large-scale study of academics’ tweets shows disparities in who shapes academic discourse and how it reaches the public. @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social
#AcademicTwitter #ClimateAction
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

How do elites view ideology? Analysing candidates’ associations of left and right Political ideology is a fundamental aspect of politics and a well-researched area of political science, but difficult to measure. By examining the sentiment of political elites’ associations with ‘...

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

🚨New publication @The_JOP on human biases in data annotation (w. Nora Webb Williams, @kevinaslett.bsky.social, John Wilkerson). Extremely important given the increasing societal reliance on AI tools often trained on human coders www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

A Tinder Test of Democratic Norms💋

New paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @bertous.bsky.social

We rely on a visual conjoint experiment, cross-sectional data, & panel data to show that affective polarization drives the normalisation of the far right among the centre-right 🇬🇧🇪🇸
doi.org/10.1086/736698

📣 New article alert 📣
Great insights shared by CDSS doctoral candidate Lukas Warode on elite attitudes towards political ideology. Check out the thread and his article for a deeper dive into the research area. Congrats @lwarode.bsky.social!👏

How do elites view ideology? Analysing candidates’ associations of left and right Political ideology is a fundamental aspect of politics and a well-researched area of political science, but difficult to measure. By examining the sentiment of political elites’ associations with ‘...

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Abstract of the article "How do elites view ideology? Analysing candidates’ associations of left and right" by Lukas Warode. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figures 1 and 2, displaying the symmetrical attitudes (Fig. 1) and expected asymmetrical attitudes (Fig. 2) of left and right elites towards left and right ideology.

Figure 7, displaying (A) Correlations between sentiment dictionary model (Rauh 2018) and zero-shot classification model (Laurer et al. 2023). (B) Correlations between sentiment dictionary model (Rauh 2018) and German sentiment model (Guhr et al. 2020). GLES candidate surveys 2013, 2017 and 2021.

Figure 8, displaying pooled logistic regression on predicting positive sentiment of left and right. Predicted probabilities of positive sentiment for left and right open-ended survey responses based on left-right self-placement. Vertical dotted line indicates mean of left-right self-placement (4.7). GLES candidate surveys 2013, 2017 and 2021.

Analysing the associations of 🇩🇪 candidates toward ideology, @lwarode.bsky.social shows that left-leaning elites view 'left' positively & 'right' negatively.

This pattern is not mirrored by right-leaning elites, who on average have less positive attitudes towards 'right'.

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Further research (stay tuned for my next papers) should explore whether this is a German peculiarity, reflecting the political-historical legacy of far-right totalitarianism, or a specific political strategy of the centre-right to differentiate itself from the far-right.

This asymmetry affects political communication and public discourse in Germany. Just recently, there was an outcry among CDU politicians when the public broadcasting service Funk mentioned the CDU alongside the AfD as a right-wing party in its media report.

Centre-right elites (CDU/CSU and FDP) have mixed attitudes towards the label right - ranging from slightly negative to moderately positive views - while the contemporary far right (AfD) has established itself with distinctly positive views towards the right.

The left-right continuum is viewed asymmetrically by German party elites. While left-leaning elites, including centre-left (SPD, Greens) and left-wing (The Left) elites, have a positive view of the left, the political right in Germany is divided in its attitude towards the right.

I measure attitudes towards left and right using sentiment analysis based on 4 models (dictionary and transformer classifiers) that provide highly correlated estimates.

I use data from 3 GLES candidate surveys (2013, 2017, 2021) using open-ended survey response associations with left and right, as well as party affiliation and left-right self-placement as central variables.

Since 2017, the AfD has emerged as a third pole, with its candidates both strongly positively inclined towards right ideology and negatively inclined towards left ideology.

I find that left ideology is viewed more positively by left-leaning elites (SPD, Greens, The Left) than right ideology is viewed by right-leaning elites (CDU and FDP), while left-leaning elites also view right ideology more negatively than right-leaning elites view left ideology.

In “How do elites view ideology? Analysing candidates’ associations of ‘left’ and ‘right’” I analyse how German Bundestag candidates view political ideology by measuring and comparing the attitudes they hold towards the central labels ‘left’ and ‘right’.

The first paper of my dissertation has been published in West European Politics!
@wepsocial.bsky.social

See the thread below: