Leonardo Carella

Duke shutters 3 research centers, including Dan Ariely’s Center for Advanced Hindsight The timing comes just one week after Ariely was named hundreds of times in connection with Jeffrey Epstein in released documents. However, Duke said the two are unrelated.

Retrospectively, it seems inevitable. dukechronicle.com/article/duke...

Lib Dems winning here #japan

The Long Ukrainian Winter How You Can Help

Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...

I think open list are great, as long as preferential votes are optional and one can cast a list vote (normally, these end up being 70-80% of the votes).

L. Louise Lucas @SenLouiseLucas X.com You all started it and we fucking finished it. &i Ted Cruz • @tedcruz• 18h A brazen abuse of power & an insult to democracy. 47% of VA voted Trump. They will now get just 9% of

I love how National R’s are learning the lesson and name of Senator Louise Lucas that Youngkin learned over the course of his term.

I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.

The moral panic about young men is the new version of “UKIP is winning over former Labour voters” (also a Goodwin argument). Both rely on anecdote more than data, and do significant damage to public understanding of the radical right. Young men are the second *least* pro-Reform group in the UK.

Yeah, the goal is outsourcing the mindless data extraction and management tasks that used to make up about 60% of my workflow.

I strongly recommend my peers and competitors on the job market to stick to old-fashioned manual coding. Think of all the water you're going to save.

I'm at day 2 of using Claude Code, and - yes - it's as good as everyone says.

I don’t want to laugh at a small business but also VERY funny

From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization

Impressionable years and lasting votes 👶

@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns

buff.ly/py9IYUS

Thanks Rob for your support.

The immigration debate stems from increased immigration. Very little evidence that it's driven by the economy, to the point that places like the US, Denmark and Australia - which have experienced high growth and standards of living - also experienced it.

If you think the UK was especially exposed, let me tell you about the Eurozone crisis...

UK avg GDP growth 2009–17: 1.33%
UK avg GDP growth 2018–25: 1.08%

Spain avg GDP growth 2009–17: 0.64%
Spain avg GDP growth 2018–25: 2.0%

Greece avg GDPg 2009–17: -3%
Greece avg GDPg 2018–25: +2%

The data shows that Brexit voters were more in favour of spending cuts than Remain voters. Brexit was primarily about immigration. This is a grotesque re-writing of history.

Brexit was 48-52, implemented by a government with a 10-seat majority: it wasn't the inevitable consequence of anything. It was a coin toss.

Other countries got austerity and the GFC, and aren't in the especially miserable state the UK finds itself. (Spain had worse austerity, and now 3% growth)

a loss of 6-8 percentage points of GDP is not "nothing".

I don't entirely disagree, but other countries implemented austerity - worse than the UK in some EU countries - and did not end up here. Of course the GFC and the response to it marks a before-and-after, but I'm sceptical of drawing an inevitable arrow from there to here.
bsky.app/profile/leon...

It's a an interesting "what counts as a cause?" historical discussion. Of course, the GFC is bigger than Brexit, but being farther back in time there are more junctures in between that could have gone differently. In a way it's like arguing whether Versailles caused WW2 or the 1929 crash caused WW2.

I don't do theory but I will look it up.

Everything is endogenous, but a 52-48 decision isn't the inevitable endpoint of a within-system build-up. It's a coin toss.

🚨New publication! Thrilled to finally see this paper out in @psrm.bsky.social 🎉

📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.

I think there are structural trends that apply to a range of Western democracies - partisan dealignment, immigration, population ageing, reduced competitiveness - and other Britain-specific compound factors - majoritarian institutions, media environment. But Brexit is a -8pc GDP loss - it's massive.

a red car is parked next to a trailer that says u-tow on it ALT: a red car is parked next to a trailer that says u-tow on it

I'm the first one to concede that Starmer has poor political instincts. But I'm sceptical of an explanation of the current state of public opinion that rests on a single man repeatedly walking into every single rake, as opposed to asking why there are rakes laying around everywhere he turns.

That's part of the argument. Many choices (not all, of course!) have been lose-lose dilemmas. On immigration, on the EU, on tax etc. we only observe one way in which Starmer hurt himself, not the alternative (on things like WFA and two-child benefits, in fairness, we do observe both iterations).

It's therefore with great pleasure that I'm announcing that I'll be standing for the Gorton and Denton by-election as the official candidate of the It's Your Fucking Fault Party.

I disagree. Starmer was (in a perverse, unhelpful and spad-brained sense) correct in ruling out income tax increases. I think 2017 is the best counterfactual: May blew a 20-point lead, same as Starmer's.

Let's not let British voters off the hook. When May made some sense over social care, she got trashed. If Starmer had been honest about the need for income tax raises, he would have lost. The charlatans who brought you 10 years of decline - Johnson and Farage - did so with the backing of the public.

5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).

I’m pro-list PR, as long as people can vote for a party list, either exclusively or with optional candidate preference. Keep it simple.