Caleb Weiss

Yes ADF

Thankfully today's attempted bombing was thwarted - either by security or the bomber unintentionally detonating herself prematurely. Regardless, a good reminder that though it is based in Congo, ISCAP still has its sights on conducting acts of terror in Uganda (and beyond).

I doubt IS officially claims today's bombing, primarily because it failed, but even if it was successful it involved a woman and IS doesn't typically claim those types of operations involving women (like it didn't claim the Goma bombing).

This is the second time ISCAP has used a woman in a suicide bombing, the first being an April 2022 suicide bombing in Goma, #DRC. This also marks the first *confirmed ISCAP attack (or at least attempted attack) in Uganda since Dec. 2023. *Not counting the false IS claims in '24.

Looks like ISCAP (aka ADF) attempted to conduct a suicide bombing today just south of Kampala, targeting congregants at today's #Uganda Martyrs' Day celebrations. The bomber - a woman previously known to security - and her boda driver were the only casualties.

Evergreen tweet. Macawisley have been effective when used properly, but there is a huge looming question over their long-term security implications given how often clans within this wider mobilization turn their guns on each other.

Missed this at the time, but it is important to note that the reported incident that ISCAP beheaded 70 Christians in a church is likely fake news. ISCAP still beheads or kills dozens of Congolese Christians a month, however, which certainly gets hardly any headlines so the wider point here is valid.

11. To close, ISCAP has went through several ebbs and flows throughout the year, which is also reflected in its media. Though it had a record number of operational claims, its propaganda output returned to more normal numbers seen before 2023, though with some interesting changes.

10. Also a rare public admission that it is indeed taking heavy personnel losses due to Operation Shujaa: x.com/caleb_weiss7...

9. Similarly, ISCAP thru IS Central has been more open about its war against Christians in Congo, explicitly stating that though they do not wish to kill them (which also seems dubious), Christians can instead save themselves by converting or paying jizya. x.com/caleb_weiss7...

Clerics in the Congo: Understanding the Ideology of the Islamic State in Central Africa “Only Muslims are the real living human beings, all non-Muslims are corpses…whoever is not a Muslim is equivalent to a dead body.”  – Musa Baluku, emir of the Islamic State’s Central Africa Province1 ...

8. ISCAP also dropped some new media tactics in 2024, most notably now publicly showcasing its mass forced conversions of Christian abductees to Islam and framing it as da'wah. A practice we at Bridgeway previously wrote about. www.hudson.org/terrorism/cl...

7. But as we stated as a possibility to bounce back, ISCAP found weaknesses in Operation Shujaa - notably moving to Lubero and back into previously cleared areas of Rwenzori/Watalinga - and ISCAP witnessed a resurgence both on the ground and in the propaganda space.

Media Matters: How Operation Shujaa Degraded the Islamic State’s Congolese Propaganda Output - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point Abstract: Just three years ago, the Islamic State’s Central Africa Province was the poster child for the Islamic State’s efforts to maintain a constant and lingering threat across the globe. That year...

6. In March 2024, @ryanmofarrell and I wrote at West Point's Sentinel on ISCAP's then-declining media capabilities - which at the time, were in a serious bind thanks to Uganda and Congo's Operation Shujaa. ctc.westpoint.edu/media-matter...

5. To note on the Uganda claims and photos, as I've previously stated here, the claims in UG from 2024 were all dubious and likely just propaganda. I could not corroborate a single claim from Uganda. Thus the alleged photos are also in question.

4. Some of the 2024 propaganda numbers are skewed as 66 photos were released from the jungle camps during the Eids, meaning 176 photos were from actual attacks. Again North Kivu led (with many again from Lubero), followed by Ituri, and then Uganda and Tshopo.

3. 242 photos, 0 videos (has not been a video released from ISCAP since 2022). Not the highest ever yearly media total - 2021 had 279 photos, 4 videos; 2022 had 256 photos, 9 videos - however, it far outpaces 2023 where they just released 92 photos total.

2. Roughly 60% of these were from Congo's North Kivu; ~38% from Ituri; and ~2% from Uganda or Congo's Tshopo Province. Of the North Kivu claims, ~40% of them were from Lubero where ISCAP has been rampaging.

1. Some numbers on Islamic State Central Africa Province #Congo operational claims and propaganda releases in 2024:

292 total claims - the highest yearly total. For comparison, 2023 just recorded 126, while 2022 had 156. Dec. 2024 the highest, with 42 claims; May had 41.

Honestly think that the numerous potential negative societal implications the advancement of AI carries vastly outweighs any potential benefit.

Analysis: AQAP praises Shabaab’s activities in East Africa In the latest issue of its Sada al-Malahem magazine, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) heaped significant praise on recent operations conducted by Shabaab, Al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa. The...

Latest at LongWarJournal: AQAP gave significant praise to Shabaab for recent operations in Somalia and for expanding the jihad in wider East Africa. Just another data point for the mutual support and admiration between the two AQ branches. www.longwarjournal.org/archives/202...

The Islamic State has since claimed this. Worrying that ISCAP is again returning to areas it was previously driven out of, highlighting its highly adaptable nature.

Ivory Coast confirms arrest of six suspected members of the Islamic State group medafricatimes.com/37582-ivory-...

I also think the point about JNIMs use of Chinese weapons as evidence of some sort of collaboration in this space is also weak when the Sahel is awash with Chinese weapons already in state armories, and especially without knowing the weapons the article is referring to

Might be useful ...

African Jihadist Research Starter Pack

(if I accidentally missed anyone for some reason, please drop me line)

go.bsky.app/FD75pM7

But yet this rumor has persisted for years despite little to no evidence. See a thread on this I've made before on Twitter: x.com/caleb_weiss7...

Also included in the new UN report on Somalia is that there is still no evidence for the rumors of infighting between Shabaab's emir, Ahmed Diriye (Abu Ubaidah), and one of its senior most officials Mahad Karate. In fact, it notes Karate is still a "close confidante" of Diriye.

All of this very much mirrors what I wrote about IS Somalia back in September ctc.westpoint.edu/islamic-stat...

All of this very much mirrors what I wrote about IS Somalia back in September ctc.westpoint.edu/islamic-stat...

RDC : Les États généraux de la justice recommandent un service de renseignement pénitentiaire pour lutter contre les réseaux criminels en prison Lors des États généraux de la justice en RDC, la création d’un service de renseignement pénitentiaire a été proposée pour répondre aux défis croissants posés par les réseaux criminels opérant à partir...

Authorities in Congo want to create a "prison intelligence service." This is likely needed given the spate of prison breaks in the country. And specifically for ISCAP/ADF, would potentially help dismantle its expansive prison networks in both the east and in Kinshasa. actualite.cd/2024/11/18/r...

La Fondation Bridgeway apporte son assistance humanitaire aux 118 ex-otages des ADF à Bunia La Fondation Bridgeway a remis samedi 16 novembre des produits vivriers et non-vivriers aux 118 ex-otages des rebelles des ADF, regroupés à Diango dans la périphérie de Bunia. Ces personnes liberées d...

La Fondation Bridgeway apporte son assistance humanitaire aux 118 ex-otages des ADF à Bunia www.radiookapi.net/2024/11/17/a...