Dan Hinge

Obituary: Süreyya Serdengeçti, 1952–2025 - Central Banking Governor of Turkey’s central bank whose policies brought inflation down from 75% to single-digit figures

Our obituary of one of the few CBRT governors to achieve price stability. Naturally, Erdoğan didn't reappoint him www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

Hi! I know - fell out of the Bluesky habit for a bit. Trying to get back on the horse/butterfly (?)

Integrating balance sheet policy into monetary policy conditions This paper introduces a new Monetary Policy Condition Index (MCI) that integrates conventional and unconventional monetary policy tools into a unified measure. The MCI is a weighted average of short-t...

Link to the working paper here: www.bis.org/publ/work128...

Another detail: while there's some time variation in the effects of balance sheet size, the authors conclude the impact of balance sheet policy is "largely stable" over time. Implies non-linearities not that significant, and QT vs QE potentially not that different in scale of impact.

Chart from BIS paper showing monetary conditions index (MCI) is substantially lower than the policy rate and estimates of the shadow rate.

What if monetary policy isn't actually all that tight? Interesting BIS paper covered here by @thomas-chow.bsky.social - a new monetary conditions index tries to capture effect of balance sheet size in a more nuanced way than the shadow rate www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

The roots of the British malaise lie in a sick economy Political responses to a bad situation tend towards either charlatanism or timidity

MW is undoubtedly correct in his assessment of the UK’s poor economic growth and its failure to confront / accept that problem as being fundamental to the UK malaise. I’m less sure though about aspects of his charlatanism / timidity framing. www.ft.com/content/8a49...

Finland’s Välimäki on the ECB’s monetary policy framework review - Central Banking Bank of Finland deputy governor Tuomas Välimäki discusses the benefits of a ‘hybrid’ balance sheet model to provide dependable structural liquidity without

As Lagarde and Lane outline the ECB's strategy in Sintra, the interview with @tuomasvalimaki.suomenpankki.fi that @danhinge.bsky.social and I did on the same topic last week has just gone live.

ECB to move to ‘hybrid’ balance sheet model – BoF board member - Central Banking Välimäki heralds “new dawn” of Eurosystem monetary policy implementation

Just published - important speech on the ECB's new hybrid balance sheet model. Piece by @lkoro.es www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

Forecasting and narratives under uncertainty - Central Banking Jagjit Chadha argues the Bank of England should deploy better analysis as the basis for clearer communication

Jagjit Chadha on how the BoE can step up its scenario analysis www.centralbanking.com/benchmarking...

Ballsy 'mission complete' from the BdF governor...

Trends in reserve management 2025: survey results - Central Banking Insights on strategies in anticipation of tariffs, interest rate divergence and geopolitical risk, FX diversification and de-dollarisation, as well as bitcoin

Central Banking conducted its annual survey of reserve managers in May: www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

77% of reserve managers believe de-dollarisation is increasing gradually, with emerging economies seeking alternatives.

#reservemanagement #centralbanking

Obituary: Stanley Fischer, 1943–2025 - Central Banking Fischer had a profound impact on central banking, as path-breaking academic and top policy-maker

My obituary for Stan Fischer is here - with thanks to Janet Yellen, Larry Summers and Karnit Flug for comments. A remarkable man, even if you disagree with his economics or policy decisions (and some did vehemently): www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

Lasagne of Love This is what I make for my children’s birthday celebrations, for farewell suppers to send them off before they go away, and for the dinners to welcome them back when they come home again. It’s our fam...

If you have time on your hands, Nigella's lasagne of love is well worth the effort www.nigella.com/recipes/lasa...

It's a Telegram post with a photo of a truck reading: "THE FIRST UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT CARRIER!"

Ok that's very funny.

Really hard to think of anyone else who had such a large impact on macroeconomics and central banking

There’s your empty shelf.

US goods imports drop 19.8% in April — largest on record

European central banks taking more active role in cash cycle - Central Banking Roundtable hears how fears over moral hazard are being set against need to preserve cash infrastructure

Many central banks in Europe are taking a more active role in the cash cycle, as they try to resist a decline in cash infrastructure www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

On the other hand we have a lot of emerging/developing countries where cash use is huge and the central bank has to spend a ton of money distributing banknotes to far-flung places. There the emphasis is on boosting digital to cut costs.

European central banks taking more active role in cash cycle - Central Banking Roundtable hears how fears over moral hazard are being set against need to preserve cash infrastructure

Two big countervailing trends in cash use worldwide. On the one hand we have Europe, where central banks are waking up to geopolitical/cyber/operational risks and want people to use cash as a form of resilience... www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

FWIW I'm strict on assets and neutral on liabilities. So a stablecoin is not a bank, but it is bank-like in important ways that almost certainly need to be regulated

This is very good. We can argue about it for the next 100 years I reckon

If stablecoins are banks, what’s a bank? The lawful good to chaotic evil of assets vs liabilities

OK let's sort this out once and for all - over at AV I produce a "Sandwich Alignment Chart" to determine whether stablecoins are banks www.ft.com/content/60e2...

Same. Think it's time I look for another network...

Letter: A multi-polar monetary system or the global dollar From Karthik Sankaran, Senior Research Fellow, Geoeconomics, Global South Programme, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Washington, DC, US

You’ve heard my spiel on this for years but now you can see it here in pink in my personal version of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy. on.ft.com/4dFW4io

Rumours of the slow death of Bluesky are much exaggerated - Central Banking finally has an official account! (We're still working on the URL...) Follow us here:

@centralbanking.bsky.social

London has become a cycling city It shows how dockless-electric bikes could transform cities

London has become a cycling city
economist.com/britain/2025...

"Since the founding of this great democracy 250 years ago, generation upon generation have assumed the burden and the honor of moving us closer to the ideal that all are created equal. Now, it's your turn. I ask you to take a minute and realize how the quest for these values has led us to this point in our history. We lead the world in so many ways, including in scientific innovation and economic dynamism. Our great universities are the envy of the world and a crucial national asset. Look around you. I urge you to take none of this for granted. When you look back in 50 years, you will want to know that you have done whatever it takes to preserve and strengthen our democracy, and bring us ever closer to the Founders' timeless ideals."

Fed Chair Powell graduation remarks to Princeton nod toward our current predicament: "Look around you. I urge you to take none of this for granted. When you look back in 50 years, you will want to know that you have done whatever it takes to preserve and strengthen our democracy."

Yes agreed. Problem I've found is free Duo is rubbish and paid-for Duo decent but not worth it when you reach the end of the course. Think the 'major' language courses are much stronger too

A flaming owl in sunglasses celebrating the 950 day streak I reached on Monday. Today I ran out of streak freezes and also patience with Duolingo's shortcomings

Today is the day I let my 950 day streak studying Ukrainian lapse. До побачення to the owl. In the end you were just too much of a pain in the arse, Duo. Also the Ukrainian course is pretty short and massively unhelpful at explaining the (v complicated!) grammar. Time for some book learning I think

Refugee Assistance Project, 582 U. S. 571, 580 (2017) (per curiam) (“The purpose of . . . interim equitable relief is not to conclusively determine the rights of the parties, but to balance the equities as the litigation moves forward.” (citation omitted)). A stay is appropriate to avoid the disruptive effect of the repeated removal and reinstatement of officers during the pendency of this litigation. Finally, respondents Gwynne Wilcox and Cathy Harris contend that arguments in this case necessarily implicate the constitutionality of for-cause removal protections for members of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors or other members of the Federal Open Market Committee. See Response of Wilcox in Opposition to App. for Stay 2−3, 27−28; Response of Harris in Opposition to App. for Stay 3, 5−6, 16−17, 36, 40. We disagree. The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States. See Seila Law, 591 U. S., at 222, n. 8. The March 4, 2025, order of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, No. 25−cv−412, ECF Doc. 39, and the March 6, 2025, order of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, No. 25−cv−334, ECF Doc. 34, are stayed pending the disposition of the appeal in the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and disposition of a petition for a writ of certiorari, if such a writ is timely sought. Should certiorari be denied, this stay shall terminate automatically. In the event certiorari is granted, the stay shall terminate upon the sending down of the judgment of this Court.

The Supreme Court goes out of its way to say that its order today does NOT allow Trump to remove members of the Federal Reserve because it is "uniquely structured" and has a "distinct history tradition." (I do not think those distinctions hold water.) www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...