Goose

They brought the Cracker and the Barrel back. Nostalgia.

upon learning an outcome, believe they would have predicted it beforehand, thus underestimating the role of chance and contingency. #criticalthinking #aviation #aviationlovers #pilots

Florovsky’s insights align with the psychological concept of “creeping determinism,” a term later popularized by Baruch Fischhoff. This term describes the cognitive bias where individuals

He observes that “the tendency toward determinism is somehow implied in the method of retrospection itself,” highlighting how hindsight can lead to an overestimation of the predictability and necessity of past events.

included in the anthology Ideas of History edited by R.H. Nash. In this work, Florovsky critiques the tendency to perceive historical events as inevitable when viewed retrospectively.

Georges Florovsky, a prominent Russian Orthodox theologian, addressed the concept of “creeping determinism” in his 1969 essay “The Study of the Past,”.

Athens, Greece.

Cognitive analysis theory.- Utility of anger and disutility of fear. Anger increases the perceived probability of overcoming the problem.

Fuzzy trace theory- A gist of information is taken more seriously than a verbatim explanation of the problem.

#cognition #pilots #aviation #airlines #bizav

Global 5000 Vision, right wing and wing tip.

She just wants to fly — add more than 5 to the ref and she’ll keep rolling, leaving the asphalt behind like it was never meant to hold her. #aviation #airplane #pilots

When the situation is ambiguous, we sometimes pick the most familiar context, and only then do we begin to reason.
#AviationPsychology #Aviation #Aviationsafety

Selecting a context is a pre-decision act. It's subtle, almost made with no effort or reflection, and it is part of a stream of experience and mental processing, much like the automatic adjustments made while driving or walking on a busy street.

🧵 An overriding Importance of context:

When we look at any accident and see the report, it almost seems that the crew was making perfectly rational decisions; it was just that they were using the wrong context (AA 587, use of full L and R rudder, Lion Air and Ethiopian 737 Max for example).

How does one hold a moment in time that’s now? Fleeting as it is, between the now becoming the past from when it was only a hopeful or hopeless future. Every breath is a farewell, and every step is a return—momentarily built to fade like your favorite song. #aviation #aviationlovers

Not Trump. He is a Clown, it is the Christians who voted for him are evil monsters.

Loved it. Danny boy was flustered.

Lol. Non one saw this coming. No one.

(Airline Commuter, cargo, flag carrier, GA, Bizav), the preferences belong to those who control the system but are not personally at risk.
#airlines #bizav #humanfactors #aviationawareness #safeskies

But if we remove the disabling assumption that risky behavior is an individual preference and analyze the system

The theory is that people have a taste for risks, so if an activity is made safer, they will make it riskier by doing it faster or in bad weather and without safety considerations.

🧵Risk homeostasis. Some captains I have flown with exhibit more clearly than most the problem discussed by economists: risk homeostasis.

This attitude in the for-profit industry is not surprising. The case in point is asking for a large transport aircraft to be flown with one pilot on board based on automation.
#Airlines #Aviation #Pilots #Humanfactors

The safety mods are not made simply because there is evidence that they're needed but because of the NTSB/FAA and the Pilots' union.

1- When the mods increase the production and profit.
2-When the mods can be retrofitted in the new models without an increase in cost. Especially if the retrofit is required due to public pressure (Congress).

I am not saying that the industry is against safety and does a lot to increase it on its own. However, it only voluntarily undertakes safety mods under two conditions.

I would like to offer this hypothesis most tentatively.
The air transport industry supports safety regulations and implementations when the safety requirements primarily Increase production efficiency.

The period from 1920 to 2000 was the most accident-prone era in commercial aviation. There was no focus on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) during that time.

#aviation #airlines #pilots #bizav

🧵 An excerpt from the book "Normal Accidents," published in 1984:

"We will refer to the pilot as 'he'; there are only 100 female airline pilots out of 30,000, likely because there are none in the major supplier, the military."

Mee too.

Case in point: the non-punitive NASA reports used by the ATC and the Pilots ( ASRS: aviation safety reporting system). The system is designed to learn from mistakes, gain insight, and remain non-punitive. #PilotSafety #AirTrafficControl #MaintenanceSafety #CabinSafety
#WeatherSafety #AirportSafety

🧵No company or industry succeeds without insights. It's hard to get insights without committing errors. The issue is that most of us work solely on reducing errors, which seems like a noble cause, yet we forget that mistakes play a crucial part in bringing insights.
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