Seraphine Hauser

It is caused by stalled circulation. The currently prevailing Eastern European blockade is turning into a high-over-low blockade. The affected region is on the leading edge of a persistent trough, which is cut off due to ridging over northern Europe and nestles in.

08.07.2025 16:03 — 👍 7    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0

Profil von Dr. Christian Scharun ‪@christianscharun.de‬ 10.000 Follower 118 Folge ich 2004 Posts Wissenschaftlicher Autor @MaiThinkX 🤓 | Podcast "Nerds at Work" 🧠🌍 | Science Slammer, Speaker, Moderator 🎤 | Klima & Kommunikation 🔥💬 | All puns intended! 😅

Mir folgen hier jetzt 10.000 Menschen! 🤯 Seit dem Untergang von Twitter gab es viele Plattformen, aber nie hatte ich ein so gutes Gefühl, wie auf Bluesky. Ich freue mich, dass wir hier ein neues Social Media Zuhause gefunden haben. Danke euch für das Interesse an meinem und unserem Content! 💚🌍🔥🧠🎙️🎬🤓

08.07.2025 06:05 — 👍 399    🔁 35    💬 12    📌 2

Wenn ich die Nachrichten lese, dann sehe ich neben den obligatorischen Meldungen zu Hitzerekorden momentan viel zu häufig Beiträge, in denen vom schönen Badewetter oder der Überfüllung der Freibäder geschrieben wird. Das ist nicht nur eine drastische Verharmlosung des eigentlichen Problems, sondern verschiebt auch den Diskurs in eine falsche Richtung.

Hitzewellen, wie wir sie aktuell erleben, forden jedes Jahr tausende Todesopfer - alleine in Deutschland. Vor allem vulnerable Gruppen wie alte, kranke oder schwangere Menschen leiden besonders unter der Hitze. Sozial schwächer gestellte Personen können sich aufgrund ihrer beruflichen Situation oder Wohnverhältnissen nicht ausreichend schützen.

Dass Hitzewellen wie diese in Zukunft aber immer häufiger, länger und heißer werden und dass wir vor allem die genannten vulnerablen Gruppen aktiv schützen müssten, geht für mich im aktuellen Diskurs komplett unter. Wir dürfen, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, die Klimakrise und ihre immensen Folgen nicht länger verdrängen oder verharmlosen.

Ich durfte für ttt meine Meinung zum Umgang mit der Klimakrise und der aktuellen Hitzewelle in den Medien sagen. ⬇️🌍🔥

03.07.2025 19:04 — 👍 380    🔁 107    💬 16    📌 3

We have taken the ensemble version of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (#AIFS) into operations!

It will run side by side with the traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).

Find out more here
➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

01.07.2025 12:43 — 👍 42    🔁 16    💬 2    📌 1

ICON forecast of daily high temperature on 2 Jul.

850 hPa temperature percentile forecast on 2 Jul, 18 UTC. By polarwx.com, Model: GFS

SW, W and central Europe will melt by WED with temperatures of 35 to 42 °C, at least according to the ICON, which admittedly represents the upper end of what is possible. In terms of temperatures at 850 hPa, we are in the top 0.5 % percentile, close to record levels.
Credit: DWD, polarwx.com

28.06.2025 22:10 — 👍 29    🔁 16    💬 1    📌 1

🧵 (7/7)
📅 What’s next?
Forecasts suggest more cyclonic regime activity in the coming two weeks, with a potential return to blocked regimes by mid-July (panel e). ECMWF's control forecast even points to a build-up of Scandinavian blocking later in July—but it’s far out and uncertain.

25.06.2025 18:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

🧵 (6/7)
🌀 And what about forecasts?
The IFS control forecast from 13 June hinted at a possible transition (with large ensemble spread, panel d). By 17 June, the ensemble mean captured the regime change—but the timing was off.

25.06.2025 18:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

🧵 (5/7)
📊 How rare is this?
Since 1979, we’ve seen only two other summer transitions from European blocking to Zonal: August 1983 and June 2021. On average, the Zonal regime occurs on just 3.8 summer days per year.

25.06.2025 18:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 2    📌 0

🧵 (4/7)
🔹 Just recently, we transitioned into a Zonal regime—a rare move for summer. Despite the shift in atmospheric circulation, the heat persists because the Zonal regime’s summer footprint still favors above-average temperatures in Central Europe (panel c).

25.06.2025 18:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

🧵 (3/7)
Here’s what’s happening right now:
🔹 A European blocking pattern set in around 12 June (panel a), fueling the recent heatwave across Central Europe. This regime often brings above-average 2m temperatures in summer, particularly in northeastern Europe (panel b).

25.06.2025 18:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Quantifying intra-regime weather variability for energy applications Weather regimes describe the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes in terms of a few circulation states that modulate regional surface weather. Subseasonal forecasts of prevailing w...

🧵 (2/7)
🔍 In fact, a recent study currently under review digs deep into this variability and how surface impacts can differ—even under the same regime type. Stay tuned! (arxiv.org/abs/2408.04302)

25.06.2025 18:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

🧵 (1/7)
We did just have a regime change over the North Atlantic–European region two days ago—but it didn’t bring much relief at the surface. Why? Because not every regime change leads to a noticeable shift in weather. There’s substantial variability within each regime, especially across seasons.

25.06.2025 18:05 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

🌡️ “I can’t stand this heat anymore! Summer just started, and it already feels endless. Is there a weather regime change coming up?”

Well… it’s complicated. 🧵

25.06.2025 18:05 — 👍 9    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

Bref coup de chaud mardi&mercredi associé a une dépression "pompe a chaleur" au large du Portugal #PlumeDeChaleur, puis probable mise en place d'un très puissant #DomeDeChaleur (fort anticyclone) pour la fin du moins de Juin avec persistance de chaleur extrême (Sud 🇫🇷).
Effrayant mais pas surprenant!

23.06.2025 19:47 — 👍 206    🔁 95    💬 9    📌 8

🌍🌐 What if we could relive past extreme weather events - only this time in a colder or warmer world? That’s exactly what scientists working on the Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) of the EU-funded DestinE initiative are doing. Find out more ➡️ destine.ecmwf.int/news/storyli...

23.06.2025 14:18 — 👍 17    🔁 5    💬 1    📌 1

If we choose not to act,
Or fail to adapt,
Then suffer we will.

#ShowYourStripes

18.06.2025 08:53 — 👍 370    🔁 180    💬 7    📌 11

Is it hot right now in the UK?

New interactive website allowing anyone to explore live temperatures hour-by-hour across the UK, and whether they are cool, warm or hot relative to normal.

istheukhotrightnow.com

Built by @roostweather.bsky.social.

30.05.2025 08:30 — 👍 243    🔁 97    💬 12    📌 20

500 hPa geopotential anomalies in the period February to mid-May compared to 1991-2020.

This is a rarity: the strongest anomaly in the northern hemisphere in the last 3 1/2 months is located over north-western Europe. Constantly recurring blocking highs over Scandinavia and the north-east Atlantic manifest themselves in an anomaly of almost +120 m over the North Sea. For saving!

19.05.2025 12:19 — 👍 19    🔁 10    💬 0    📌 0

This is so nice! 🥹

28.08.2024 14:28 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0