Aditya Sengupta

It was a pleasure to be involved in this. Not a pleasure that it was necessary, but seeing around 80 scientists come together to defend scientific integrity, led brilliantly by Andrew, filled me with pride.

The actual temperature change in different regions compared to a counterfactual world if the 1960–1990 warming trend had continued. It is clear that regions with a low HDI have warmed pretty much at the same rate post 1990. An increase in pollution levels in these regions while a decrease in pollution in high HDI regions, owing to the imposition of clean air acts, can explain some of these regional differences

📑 The first IPCC Assessment report came out in 1990. Prior to 1990, most parts of the world had already seen an increase in regional temperatures. Post 1990, regions with a high Human Development Index have seen the rate of warming increase.

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

If India chokes less, it will fry more Pollution may have shielded it from the worst of global warming. That will change

www.economist.com/interactive/...

This very insightful recent article in Economist tackles the topic of the delicate balance in aerosol pollution and GHG induced warming, and this balance is critical in developing regions in South Asia.

After the March 2021 floods, which had a similar pattern of unrelenting moist air over the east coast and a cut-off low, we quantified how likely these events may be in the future.

India’s vital efforts to tackle air pollution could worsen warming Study warns rapid reduction of aerosol emissions without greenhouse gas reduction could expose vulnerable populations to extreme heat.

Wrote a short piece for Indian readers who often think reducing air pollution will reduce climate impacts, also featuring @adisen99.bsky.social's paper.

Many were shocked, and it started conversations on why India is surprisingly cool with ~0.7 °C of total warming!

www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/ene...

Many IPCC scenarios project an aggressive reduction in aerosols, but they lack nuances of regional diversity and diversity in aerosols types. But there are some other model intercomparison projects that take these into account like RAMIP and AerChemMIO

Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review Communications Earth & Environment - Australia experiences meteorological droughts due to insufficient moisture transport and heavy precipitation, which are influenced by climate variability...

Have you wondered what causes Australia's droughts? Why sometimes the expected rainfall just doesn't come?
Our newly published review explains! Read the full article here: rdcu.be/eeZHX

Fascinating paper by @ccrc.bsky.social
“Damage to world GDP in 2100 under SSP5-8.5 increases from ∼11% under models without global weather to ∼40% if global weather is included. Further … welfare-optimal amount of climate changes from ∼2.7C to ∼1.7C.”
dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Australian coral reefs are currently ranging from 'bleach watch' to 'bleaching and most dying' categories. Be nice to see at least one 'no stress' sight, but hey...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Scenes from the incredible turnout today at Berkeley's @standupforscience.bsky.social rally. @tedmiguel.bsky.social, @jenniferdoudna.bsky.social, and dozens of researchers, elected officials, and citizens defended science and the jobs, health benefits, and progress it creates for all Americans.

Onshore intensification of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate - Nature Climate Change Western boundary currents flow along the western edge of subtropical oceans, transporting heat polewards, and are integral in the climate system. Using high-resolution models, this work shows that wes...

Onshore intensification of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate

Inducing warming that worsens coastal marine heatwaves, reduces the ocean's capacity to absorb CO2, and destabilizes methane hydrates on the sea floor

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

How scientists can drive climate action: celebrate nature and promote hope Nature - After years of storytelling and running classes and festivals, I’ve seen first-hand how a love of nature makes people want to protect it.

Science is necessary, but clearly not sufficient, for conveying the climate crisis

https://go.nature.com/3XjoJCU

As extreme weather and the cost of energy dominates the headlines, knowing how to separate fact from fiction is more important than ever.

Check out this week’s Changing Climate’s article tackling some of the fishy information out there: bit.ly/changing-climates-articles

Ocean has been losing its SST damping capacity (see Figure) since 1982 due to increased stratification, allowing SST anomalies and the associated climate and extreme weather events to attain stronger amplitude and persist longer. 🌊🧪 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Look for the good news when you can. ☀️

Alex loves doing her PhD, but says she's earning under the minimum wage Alexandra Paton, who researches how to manage feral cat populations, says her PhD is important for Australia's wildlife but her income is lower than what she earned as a teenager at Macca's.

If Australia wants to keep pace with other countries (let alone be a leader in science and innovation) then clearly this needs to change. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01...

Figures describing the nature of the asymmetry of ENSO-rainfall teleconnections in two regions - East Australia and South-East Asia. East Australia experiences a stronger wet response during La Niña compared to the dry response during an El Niño, leading to a wet-type asymmetry. South-East Asia however, the effect is opposite with a stronger dry response during El Niño leading to a dry-type asymmetry

Regional and performance of models in capturing the linear nature of ENSO-rainfall teleconnections for a July-June average.

Regional and performance of models in capturing the nonlinear asymmetric nature of ENSO-rainfall teleconnections for a July-June average.

The impact of ENSO on regional rainfall is nonlinear, which can have a severe impact on regional hydroclimate variability. In this new paper with @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and @drjobrown.bsky.social, we assess CMIP6 models in capturing this nonlinearity - doi.org/10.1029/2024...

As relevant to the current fire situations, this new research highlights that in California *and* eastern Australia, we might swing more often or more intensely,from wet to dry. Such swings produce more dry fuels for fires. Bummer. For both.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...

The ice at Santa's workshop is thinning away... #NorthPole 🎁🧑‍🎄

Check out my blog from November 2022 for more on this graphic: zacklabe.com/blog-archive...

Humid heat exceeds human tolerance limits and causes mass mortality - Nature Climate Change The hottest boreal summer on record has driven widespread humid heat mortality across every continent of the Northern Hemisphere. With critical physiological limits to human heat tolerance drawing eve...

New paper @natclimchange.bsky.social finds that humid heat during the 2024 Hajj pilgrimage neared human tolerance limits. Analysis (by the Lethal Humidity Council, including CCRC’s Steven Sherwood and Katrin Meissner @katrinmeissner.bsky.social) warns further warming would threaten more people.

Posting too many "clouds" on "Blue Sky" would mean we are "making it rain".. or perhaps "brainstorming". We can call long threads - Storms

Marine Heatwaves - The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Efforts to curtail global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions should remain a priority so that the risks of marine heatwaves can be reduced.

We always think of heatwaves as causing unbearable conditions for us, but did you know they happen in the ocean too? They're happening more and are becoming hotter, impacting everywhere from Tassie to Queensland. Read more in the latest brief from the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

Is the Climate Changing Faster than Expected? - The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes The evidence is clear: the impacts of global warming are increasing, and to reduce them, we require a deep and rapid cut in greenhouse gas emissions.

The rate at which our planet warms matters. It is not just that rate of warming has direct impacts on heat stress and heat related mortality in vulnerable areas of the world, but it also affects Adaptation and Mitigation measure tackling climate change.
climateextremes.org.au/is-the-clima...

Is the Climate Changing Faster than Expected? - The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes The evidence is clear: the impacts of global warming are increasing, and to reduce them, we require a deep and rapid cut in greenhouse gas emissions.

Is the climate changing faster than expected? An excellent briefing note from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes looks at this question. climateextremes.org.au/is-the-clima...

'Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations'

our new paper in @pnas.org with S. Bartusek, R. Seager. J. Schellnhuber and M. Ting investigating the tail behaviour of extreme heatwave trends.

@iiasa.ac.at @columbiaclimate.bsky.social @lamontearth.bsky.social

‘Arctic Niño’ might emerge in an ice-free world - Nature Climate Change A novel type of climate oscillation might emerge in the Arctic Ocean owing to sea-ice melting. The air–sea coupling feedbacks occurring in the ice-free Arctic Ocean would trigger periodic warm–cold te...

🆕A new climate oscillation may develop in the Arctic Ocean due to sea-ice melting. Air-sea feedbacks in the ice-free Arctic could trigger periodic warm-cold temperature cycles, resembling El Niño and La Niña in the tropical Pacific.🌏
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet - Communications Earth & Environment Despite 2023’s record temperatures, there is no significant warming surge beyond the 1970s, and an increase of at least 55% across all datasets is required for a detectable warming surge at the presen...

A recent publication in Nature Comms - www.nature.com/articles/s43... tries to address that question and it is certainly worth giving a read.
This article (news.ucsc.edu/2024/10/glob...) provides a simpler overview of the findings for that study.

This limitation is addressed in the supporting information of the paper however doesn't affect the major findings. Our approach answers - whether there has been an amplification of trends over time?
This is a simpler question than whether the trend amplification is statistically detectable?

We have used two independent methods to analyse the significance of acceleration in order of 10**(-3). These were done specifically to find whether such an acceleration rate actually makes a difference to temperatures over time.

Thanks for the constructive comment. Our method for computing acceleration was designed to check for amplification in trends over time and indeed autocorrelation could increase the overconfidence .. which promotes the analysis in Supp text to analyse the role of acceleration on the order of 0.001