Marcus How

A.k.a. Johnson

Not even the crisis of the Tory Party

Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:

EU plans to hand Deripaska-linked assets to Raiffeisen [FREE TO READ] Some European officials worry lifting sanctions would bolster Russian retaliation against western companies

Opposition to the move from capitals that don’t want to reward the oligarch or endorse Russian court rulings could stymie efforts to pass the EU’s next package of sanctions against Moscow

Scoop with @lauramdubois.ft.com & @mjruehl.bsky.social

on.ft.com/4o7M3i9

If Orban takes the nuclear option as regards to dealing with Peter Magyar, this is the most likely scenario. Using past precedent in other member states (Romania, in this instance) as political cover and decrying objections from Brussels as double standards.

Since 2010, when Viktor Orbán returned to power, he and Fidesz have been steadily checking off the boxes for building a mafia state in Hungary. At some point, Orbán seems to have decided never to leave power again. 1/11

Might just swipe that

Politics by local lowest common denominator..

Hard to disagree with any of this. The outcome of the presidential election was a catastrophe for Tusk and his coalition. As things stand, Poland is a ticking time bomb for Europe.

After years of hard work and months of even harder waiting, it’s an incredible feeling to announce that CENTRAL EUROPE is officially out! 🥳

Go and pick up a copy at any good bookshop!

Bruno Kreisky’s Foreign Policy: A Reassessment | Berghahn Books Independent Publishing since 1994

Still difficult, even in 2025, to get anywhere in Austria without Bruno Kreisky.

*Bruno Kreisky's Foreign Policy. A Reassessment.* New from Berghahn.

We have a good feeling about this book.

www.berghahnbooks.com/title/Bischo...

The U.S. "relies" on Austria for 29% of its imported handguns.

As a percentage of total such imports, it is the largest export item of Austria to the U.S.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

"Austria has one of the most heavily armed civilian populations in Europe, with an estimated 30 firearms per 100 persons, according to the Small Arms Survey, an independent research project", schreibt Reuters.

Krass, war mir nicht bewusst.

🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve.

While Russia is suffering horrendous casualties in Ukraine and failing by most metrics, European states perceive it as an existential threat—and are frantically preparing for an attack.

In my new piece for @foreignpolicy.com, I make sense of this paradox.

1/5

foreignpolicy.com?p=1195629&pr...

Very easily: Orban is so blinkered by his ideological agenda (such as it is), that he was prepared to sacrifice the interests of ethnic Hungarians, many with dual citizenship, for the benefit of a candidate well known for his active hostility towards them.

80% of Hungarians in Romania breaking for Dan.. given how much leverage Fidesz have over ethnic Hungarian communities, this is a major black eye for Orban entirely borne of hubris and complacency.

So it not quite a foregone conclusion. Polling in Romania has a (deservedly) bad reputation. That said, this is Simion's election to lose. Dan will really struggle to reach into the constituencies he needs to. And the crucial diaspora vote has thus far weighted overwhelmingly for Simion. 3/3

..it is possible for Dan to squeak a narrow win. In the 2014 runoff, when Klaus Iohannis faced Victor Ponta, the polls were widening for Ponta until voting day. Iohannis pulled a blinder by mobilising undecided or otherwise apathetic voters, especially in the diaspora. 2/

A victory by Simion in the Romanian presidential runoff is likely. On paper, Nicusor Dan just doesn't have the numbers as PSD inclined voters in rural areas who backed the GroKo candidate Crin Antonescu or Victor Ponta just won't mobilise for him. PSD is split on the issue. And yet.. 1/3

Is there any precedent for a party leader pulling off an historic result (based on vote share, anyway), whilst also losing their seat? I think Poilievere might actually be the first.

In a similar vein, on the other side of Europe, Romania has the potential to become the gas superpower of Europe equal Norway, providing deep sea gas that will help bridge the gap during the green transition. But managing the politics as well as the security of its territorial waters is challenging.

💥📈 In just six months, Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar’s TISZA party has surged to a 14-point lead over Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz, per the reliable 21 Research Center pollster—putting TISZA on the brink of a two-thirds majority in parliament.

🗳️🇭🇺 Next election is in April 2026.

Austria’s security services (DSN) have uncovered a Russian disinformation operation, coordinated through a Bulgarian intermediary. The campaign aimed to discredit Ukraine in German-speaking countries by deploying fake pro-Ukraine content embedded with extremist cues to manipulate perception. 1/6

The Israeli entrepreneur Shalev Hulio gained notoriety for designing Pegasus, the spyware used by governments to hack journalists and dissidents. Today, he is selling a new AI cyber security tool to European states and corporations. His secret asset? Austria’s former leader Sebastian Kurz. [Thread]

"But there are no kangaroos in the trees, he told me, those are only in Australasia. Did you know that? I didn't know that. Anyway, they love me there.."

Waiting for him to finally clarify for the world that there are no kangaroos in Austria

💥🇺🇸 Viktor Orbán’s bromance with Trump seems to be fading—a new short doc explores why. For example, experts like ex-Trump advisor Ken Weinstein say Orbán’s cozying up to China and its car industry clashes with Trump’s key foreign policy goals.

🎥 Full doc by DW: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQ9...

Imamgoglu and CHP would do well to emphasise that imho. A kind of spin on "he was the future once"

How Orban played Germany, Europe’s great power - Direkt36 Why isn't Germany tougher with the Hungarian government? Viktor Orbán has been building his alliances for decades through personal friendships, political gimmicks and pouring hundreds of billions of f...

I periodically remind anyone who will listen of this incredibly insightful long-read on the nexus between Fidesz and the southern German automakers/CSU:
www.direkt36.hu/en/a-magyar-...