Marcus How

🇵🇱⚖️President Nawrocki vetoes the law reforming the National Council of Judiciary, dispelling any hopes the Polish government had of reforming the rule of law through new legislation. Major, but expected, defeat for the new MoJ Waldemark Żurek and his plans. 1/

Hungary’s opposition leader Péter Magyar says allies of PM Viktor Orbán are preparing a “Russian-style” sex-tape smear campaign ahead of April’s election.

He says his ex-girlfriend set a honey trap in 2024 & Orbán’s camp plans to release the footage soon

Tisza’s foreign policy offer: Plans for a post-Orban Hungary     – European Council on Foreign Relations After nearly 16 years of Fidesz rule, the centre-right Tisza party stands a chance of winning Hungary’s April election. Under their rule, Budapest would work wi

🌍 With two months until Hungary's next parliamentary election, time to take a look at what the foreign policy offer of Tisza, the main opposition party leading the polls ahead of Fidesz, would mean for the EU.

Read my piece published by the New Politics Project of @ecfr.eu

ecfr.eu/article/tisz...

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“Trump hasn't been the boon to Orbán that many expected” Zselyke Csaky on the foreign-policy impact of Hungary's election

Enjoyed discussing the European implications of the Hungarian election with @zecsaky.bsky.social and her explaining to me why in several cases I don't quite get it
twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/trump-hasn...

Turning this around for the sake of argument: given the historically "big tent" nature of the Labour party, combined with the size and shallowness of the large majority, Starmer is in effect managing a multifarious coalition, even if that's not the reason he has been so cautious.

Keeping it in the realm of personalities: how fair do you think it is to describe Keir Starmer as the Olaf Scholz of UK social democratic politics, but with a large majority? Scholz was much more of a political animal as well as surprisingly flippant & emotional, but the end result is much the same.

Some kind of equivalent of what Alan Smithee is for film directors who disown their work.

In other words, Hungary may very well remain a major problem for the EU regardless of whether Tisza is successful or not. There is every chance that Orban and Fidesz will rebound in opposition. They have planned for exactly this scenario since their first defeat in 2002. 3/3

Even if Tisza succeed in winning, its majority will almost certainly not be the 2/3 required to rewire the state itself. It is unclear whether Tisza, with a mere absolute majority, have a plan to properly deal with the Fidesz shadow state. Poland shows that isn't necessarily the case. 2/3

My understanding is that the Commission as well as key capitals are assuming that Orban will be gone in April. If true, that is naive. Notwithstanding the capture of the state apparatus by Fidesz, the mixed, disproportional, quasi-rigged electoral system may produce wildly unpredictable results. 1/3

🇸🇰🇪🇺⚖️It took a while, but the Commission is finally, belatedly, getting tough on Fico's softcore rule of law crisis. While not as severe as in 🇭🇺🇵🇱, the slowly crawling dismantling of checks and balances by the Slovak government is finally getting the attention it deserves. 1/

That's miraculous news indeed, congratulations Anders! Must have been a gauntlet of a journey.

excellent summary of where we are now - BUT analysis by Political Capital shows that Orban could win back his 2/3rds constitutional majority with 45% of the vote while Magyar would have to win 55% of the vote to get a simple majority. See my analysis here www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how...

In letter, psychiatrists tell Fico to lead or to leave office A similar letter was addressed to the quasi-authoritarian Prime Minister Mečiar in the 1990s.

And by the professionals themselves, no less:
spectator.sme.sk/politics-and...

maybe just to put this in context this is someone whose own psychological state is regularly questioned on the domestic scene (post-assassination attempt)

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

Yes, and in that sense a powerful and valuable account. But the general tendency for Austrian writers of the time, of which Zweig was just one, to tinge everything in sepia becomes an exercise in legend rather than history making - but the popular imagination tends to conflate the two.

Controversial opinion: World of Yesterday is undeniably a classic, a timelessly rich voice of the period, but I find it a bit overrated. The nostalgic melancholy and starry-eyed reminiscence is over-egged, bordering on sentimental.

Very true. The relationship between the DNA and SRI was also cosy, often operating in the space between laws. The anti-corruption push was undeniably a good thing imho but it was heavy-handed - and without accompanying preventative reforms, effectively just mowing the grass.

The judiciary in Romania never "worked" in truth. Under the Kovesi era the anti-corruption agency (DNA) and the prosecutors took advantage of a highly favourable opportunity following the 2012 political divisions that paralysed the politic

Been thinking a lot about the European response to the new US National Security Strategy (followed up by Trump's interview).

Europeans panicked after J.D.'s Munich speech and Zelenskyy's humiliation in the White House but then got complacent when US policy seemed to resume its usual course.

Where did the 20% swing to AUR come from? Piedone & PUSL?

CER quick reaction: The Czech elections Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.

Now that Babis is confirmed as prime minister, posting what I wrote earlier on what to expect in Czechia and the EU. Bottom line on the latter: a "rump" Visegrad is a possibility but its impact will heavily depend on the Hungarian elections www.cer.eu/insights/cer...

Bavarian-speaking mountain Slavs with some Romance flourishes for good measure

Nor the Austrians tbf

Why are Péter Magyar’s Anti-Corruption Claims so Successful? To understand why Péter Magyar’s anti-corruption claims were so successful in rallying opposition against Orbán, consider the broader environment in which he emerged - writes Gabriela Greilinger.

Some thoughts, in a hopefully more coherent form than my 300-character Bluesky posts

hungarianobserver.substack.com/p/why-are-pe...

”The situation is tense” – How Orbán has tried overcome Fidesz’s internal crisis - Direkt36 Fidesz underestimated opposition leader Péter Magyar so much that they realized too late that he posed a real threat to them. Direkt36 reveals how Viktor Orbán launched his spring offensive against Ma...

💥🇭🇺 For Hungary watchers: a detailed inside look at Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party's recent internal crisis — how they underestimated opposition leader Péter Magyar and how all the traps they set for him backfired. Orbán's spring offensive against Magyar even caused tensions within the government.

I agree that Dan was a good candidate, and in that sense not the default fallback, but the primary motivating factor was the vote against Simion. Moldova is a different kettle of fish in that it is under continuous attack by hostile actors through captured parties. Not a "normal" voting environment.