Marcus How

The U.S. "relies" on Austria for 29% of its imported handguns.

As a percentage of total such imports, it is the largest export item of Austria to the U.S.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

"Austria has one of the most heavily armed civilian populations in Europe, with an estimated 30 firearms per 100 persons, according to the Small Arms Survey, an independent research project", schreibt Reuters.

Krass, war mir nicht bewusst.

🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve.

While Russia is suffering horrendous casualties in Ukraine and failing by most metrics, European states perceive it as an existential threat—and are frantically preparing for an attack.

In my new piece for @foreignpolicy.com, I make sense of this paradox.

1/5

foreignpolicy.com?p=1195629&pr...

Very easily: Orban is so blinkered by his ideological agenda (such as it is), that he was prepared to sacrifice the interests of ethnic Hungarians, many with dual citizenship, for the benefit of a candidate well known for his active hostility towards them.

80% of Hungarians in Romania breaking for Dan.. given how much leverage Fidesz have over ethnic Hungarian communities, this is a major black eye for Orban entirely borne of hubris and complacency.

So it not quite a foregone conclusion. Polling in Romania has a (deservedly) bad reputation. That said, this is Simion's election to lose. Dan will really struggle to reach into the constituencies he needs to. And the crucial diaspora vote has thus far weighted overwhelmingly for Simion. 3/3

..it is possible for Dan to squeak a narrow win. In the 2014 runoff, when Klaus Iohannis faced Victor Ponta, the polls were widening for Ponta until voting day. Iohannis pulled a blinder by mobilising undecided or otherwise apathetic voters, especially in the diaspora. 2/

A victory by Simion in the Romanian presidential runoff is likely. On paper, Nicusor Dan just doesn't have the numbers as PSD inclined voters in rural areas who backed the GroKo candidate Crin Antonescu or Victor Ponta just won't mobilise for him. PSD is split on the issue. And yet.. 1/3

Is there any precedent for a party leader pulling off an historic result (based on vote share, anyway), whilst also losing their seat? I think Poilievere might actually be the first.

In a similar vein, on the other side of Europe, Romania has the potential to become the gas superpower of Europe equal Norway, providing deep sea gas that will help bridge the gap during the green transition. But managing the politics as well as the security of its territorial waters is challenging.

💥📈 In just six months, Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar’s TISZA party has surged to a 14-point lead over Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz, per the reliable 21 Research Center pollster—putting TISZA on the brink of a two-thirds majority in parliament.

🗳️🇭🇺 Next election is in April 2026.

Austria’s security services (DSN) have uncovered a Russian disinformation operation, coordinated through a Bulgarian intermediary. The campaign aimed to discredit Ukraine in German-speaking countries by deploying fake pro-Ukraine content embedded with extremist cues to manipulate perception. 1/6

The Israeli entrepreneur Shalev Hulio gained notoriety for designing Pegasus, the spyware used by governments to hack journalists and dissidents. Today, he is selling a new AI cyber security tool to European states and corporations. His secret asset? Austria’s former leader Sebastian Kurz. [Thread]

"But there are no kangaroos in the trees, he told me, those are only in Australasia. Did you know that? I didn't know that. Anyway, they love me there.."

Waiting for him to finally clarify for the world that there are no kangaroos in Austria

💥🇺🇸 Viktor Orbán’s bromance with Trump seems to be fading—a new short doc explores why. For example, experts like ex-Trump advisor Ken Weinstein say Orbán’s cozying up to China and its car industry clashes with Trump’s key foreign policy goals.

🎥 Full doc by DW: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQ9...

Imamgoglu and CHP would do well to emphasise that imho. A kind of spin on "he was the future once"

How Orban played Germany, Europe’s great power - Direkt36 Why isn't Germany tougher with the Hungarian government? Viktor Orbán has been building his alliances for decades through personal friendships, political gimmicks and pouring hundreds of billions of f...

I periodically remind anyone who will listen of this incredibly insightful long-read on the nexus between Fidesz and the southern German automakers/CSU:
www.direkt36.hu/en/a-magyar-...

Basescu was a baron at heart but he played the Francophile president, no?

In this sense, Magyar is arguably the heir of Lajos Simicska, who mysteriously dropped off the radar after failing in his run at Orban in 2018.

Czechia and Slovakia have never really had EPP strongmen. Czechia's prime ministers, barring Babis and maybe Necas, have been relatively weak. Fico was the S&D's equivalent strongman until 2018. His EPP counterparts weren't barons in this sense, although Matovic would have liked to have been.

Tbh I think Bulgaria is as bad as Hungary and Serbia. Less overtly centralised, but the state is under capture by oligarchs and OCGs. Huge failure of EU enlargement. Romania's shortcomings have been far more manageable within EU frameworks.

My colleague Benedetta Locatelli and I provided some insights on behalf of VE Insight for SeeNews on the way in which likely policy changes by the Trump administration might impact the Western Balkans:
seenews.com/news/from-st...

A crypto bribe, not least of that amount, doesn't scream credibility though, does it? Were I corrupt and offered the same I would think twice ☝️

Interesting, thanks for the clarification. So public opinion led the politicians in Finland's case?

It wasn't supposed to be. My chin-stroking pessimism was entirely deliberate.. sorry

Just to be contrarian: this might change. Grotesque as it may be, Trump is taking ownership of this issue. Public (or GOP) opinion might very well follow. The same happened in Sweden & Finland as regards neutrality after Feb '22. The politicians led on the issue and the public followed.

I'm likewise no expert, but my understanding is also that weapons systems operating on software can technically be turned off remotely by the manufacturer.