Gareth Baxter

New paper: "Large Language Models and Emergence: A Complex Systems Perspective" (D. Krakauer, J. Krakauer, M. Mitchell).

We look at claims of "emergent capabilities" & "emergent intelligence" in LLMs from the perspective of what emergence means in complexity science.

arxiv.org/pdf/2506.11135

We argue that currently, the universalist approach dominates and creation of new models, which is inherent to pluralism, is not sufficiently emphasised. This brings us to, in Sections 6 Machine learning cannot replace modelling, 7 Are hybrid models the answer?, a discussion of how mathematical biology has responded with the rise of machine learning. We argue that ML, which emphasises prediction (activity 3), is ill-prepared to deal with complexity without incorporating some form of mechanistic model building. But we also, more controversially for those working in mathematical biology, emphasise how some of the responses to the rise of ML have fallen into the trap of making models of models (or fitting models to data generated by models) rather than innovating by creating new models of biology itself. We conclude that mathematical biology needs less unification and less analysis of existing models, and more creativity and more creation of new models. We should be creative without fear of them being wrong or producing ideas that are mathematically intractable, with an aim of providing a multitude of tools for better understanding of biological systems.

Instead, the radical definition of complex systems comes from, what is known as, critical complexity. Work by Paul Cilliers and Alicia Juarrero warned against aggrandising models (even supposedly complex systems models) [3], [4]. They emphasise the need to embrace the ambiguous, messy, fluid, non-determinable, contextual, and historical nature of complex systems. They describe complex phenomena as unfinalizible and inexhaustible, which means that we can never capture any given biological system entirety with models [5]. Fig. 1, adapted from Di Paolo et al. (2018), captures the interdependence, fluidly and interactivity of agents and environments in a complex system [2]. Complex systems are open-ended, which means there is no uncontested way of telling whether what we have included in a model is crucial or what we have omitted as irrelevant is indeed so. Models can, according to the critical complexity approach, be contradictory: we can accept two incompatible predictions as both describing the same system.

This approach views a model as a snapshot of a system and no single snapshot tells the whole story. For modelling the human body, for example, “a portrait of a person, a store mannequin, and a pig can all be models” [6]. None is a perfect representation, but each can be the best model for a human, depending on whether one wants to remember an old friend, to buy clothes, or to study anatomy. The critical complexity view suggests that theoreticians should avoid specialising in any one modelling approach and try to find the right set of models to understand a particular system in a given context. There can, of course, be more than one definition of complex systems. Indeed, Cilliers and Juarrero’s approach to complexity encourages a plurality of definitions (after all, there is no single view of a system). We would, though, emphasise that it is the radical definition of complexity – in which systems always resist a complete description, are open and unfinalizable – which is least well understood by mathematical biologists today. It is therefore important to investigate how complexity should be approached in the study of biological systems.

from a 2022 paper with @gyllingberg.bsky.social & @soccermatics.bsky.social

The lost art of mathematical modelling www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Your next network science conference opportunity: NetSci-X 2026 in Auckland, New Zealand. netscix2026.github.io #NetSci2025 #NetSciX2026

@gin-bianconi.bsky.social the thoroughly deserving recipient of the Netsci Euler Award, giving her personal perspective on the nature of networks
#NetSci2025

Underway at @netsciconf.bsky.social

Hieko Lietz getting us underway at the Critical Phenomena satellite

Bluesky, censorship and country-based moderation This week, Bluesky hid accounts in for users in Turkey after a government order. I take a closer look at government censorship and ATProto, how geographic moderation labelers work, and the impact on t...

After a court order by the Turkish government, Bluesky made accounts unavailable for Bluesky users in Turkey this week.

I take a closer look at geographic-based moderation works on Bluesky and atproto, how it can be sidestepped, and much more

fediversereport.com/bluesky-cens...

🌐 Don't miss the opportunity to submit your abstract at CCS25!

Super-Linear Growth and Rising Inequality in Online Social Communities: Insights from Reddit We study the effect of the number of users on the activity of communities within the online content sharing and discussion platform Reddit, called subreddits. We found that comment activity on Reddit ...

New research on inequality in online communities! We show that as communities grow, participation becomes increasingly concentrated among fewer users w/ Guilherme Machado, @diogofpacheco.bsky.social and @baxterity.bsky.social. arxiv.org/abs/2503.02661 @exetercompsci.bsky.social @uaveiro.bsky.social

Hoping to update my starterpack of the Portuguese complexity community.

If you study complex systems or related things and work in Portugal or have a connection to Portugal, please get in touch!

go.bsky.app/A8RRk6j

It's a network conferency day. Abstract submitted to @netsciconf.bsky.social, and while I won't be able to attend, I've also finished my reviews for @complenet.bsky.social in Fortaleza.

Both shaping up to be great meetings!

Govt cuts humanities and social science funding - Expert Reaction Humanities and social science funding has been cut from the Marsden Fund, the main fund for 'blue-skies' research in Aotearoa New Zealand. The areas that have been cut include research in subjects lik...

More on Marsden’s dark day: There’s detailed comments via SMC www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2024/12/04/g...

This is a classic example of language change in progress, as noted by Chambers (image from chambers.artsci.utoronto.ca/couch.html)

POST OF SCIENCE MANAGER CBR hereby announces the opening of an international call for applications for one vacancy of Science Manager to perform duties of science management and knowledge (with an exclusivity clause), in the...

We are looking for a coordinator for our new ERA Chair project based in Portugal (more news about that soon). Experience with #ComplexSystems a plus!

fm.ucp.pt/news/post-sc...

What we know about the likely consequences of the new Gangs Act Explainer - How will new gang laws, inspired by Australia's, likely play out in New Zealand?

www.rnz.co.nz/news/what-yo...

go.bsky.app/FNYZ61y

This one is pretty extensive

This post from the PM is problematic for a number of reasons.

A thread…🧵

great list, could you add me too please?

Nine-day hīkoi to uphold the Treaty of Waitangi and Māori rights – in pictures A protest march has travelled for nine days across New Zealand, culminating at Wellington and parliament on Tuesday Continue reading...

Nine-day hīkoi to uphold the Treaty of Waitangi and Māori rights – in pictures

I created a starter pack for complex systems researchers in portugal, and portuguese researchers around the world.

Unfortunately many of the people I would like to add are still not here!

Please send me suggestions for who to add. Very much work in progress.

go.bsky.app/A8RRk6j

20 million coming up....

bcounter.nat.vg

For me, because it's easy, looks familiar, and I found quite a few people I know are already here.

Maybe similar to why not that many people (relatively) use Linux.It's close to "just working", but there are still tweaks that you have to learn. Even small obstacles can be intimidating.

If you’re working in #NetworkScience or #ComplexNetworks, I strongly encourage you to consider joining #CompleNet25 in Fortaleza, Brazil. It’s a great opportunity to share ideas and connect with the community. Deadline is tomorrow, 15 November. @CompleNet cmt3.research.microsoft.com/CompleNet2025

It's great to see the massive wave of people coming to 🦋.
Here's my first stab at a Computational Social Science starter pack:
go.bsky.app/2m6iQ68

Go check out similar lists to bootstrap your network:
bsky.app/starter-pack...
bsky.app/starter-pack...

Wonder if these lists could be merged somehow..

go.bsky.app/BRacuno

Bluesky and enshittification No one is the enshittifier of their own story.

Some hard truths from Cory Doctorow: doctorow.medium.com/https-plural...

It misses only one fact: Mastodon was born shitified!

I still believe that the free software principles are strong and people will eventually unshitiffy it. But this hurdle will cost it a unique moment in history.