Tim

Hey Sam, any insight into why Ford (49th overall, C7 in 2024, C8 in 2025) jumped Ballesteros (44th overall, C6 in 2024, C10 in 2025) when Ballesteros is a year younger, a level higher, and outhit Ford last season?

Awesome thanks!

Thielbar is huge on Pitch Movement

109 Movement+, 107 Location+, 97 Velocity+

43% 4-Seam - 93% Move+
31% Sweeper - 87% Move+
25% Curveball - 99% Move+

Had a down year in 2024 (95.6 wOBA+) but fantastic underlying stats that adds upside in a much needed Bullpen LHP option for the Cubs

Hey @ice-travis.bsky.social, just want to ask/confirm Kevin Alcántara’s current Game Power 20 grade? How is it that he’s both projected for 60 future, has a lower grade than fellow prospects (Triantos is 30 with a lot less HR, ISO, SLG, etc.), and is still MLB Opening Day ready?

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone! To those that celebrate, I hope today is one filled with joy. And to those that the holidays are a tougher experience, I’m sending you some positive thoughts. Best wishes everyone.

Upside is huge for Pablo, but last year was surprisingly average. Pitches don't move super well, but the Velo and Location allow for him to be a 1/2 Starter

.314 wOBA against - 101.8+
Movement+ - 91.5+
Velocity+ - 106.0+
Location+ - 112.4+

Best movement is the Changeup, Move+ 97% of the time

Cody Poteet Pitch Data
.278 wOBA (115+)

28% 4-Seam cut-ride 57% Move+ - .300 wOBA
25% Sinker 18% Move+ - .214 wOBA
20% Changeup 64% Move+ - .200 wOBA
17% Sweeper 58% Move+ - .257 wOBA
10% Curve 61% Move+ - .422 wOBA

True 5-Mix pitcher with great pitches, few adjustments away from 100% Move+

Will be interesting to see if this deal gets done

39% 4S - 13% Move+ - .368 wOBA
29% Slider - 100% Move+!! - .245 wOBA
23% Changeup - 81% Move+ - .291 wOBA

.322 wOBA (102.4+)
101.1 PitchMix+
100.4 Velo+
104.4 Movement+
96.6 Command+

Patrick Corbin is a great comp for profile, ceiling, and risk

Kyle Tucker is beyond thrilled to be joining the Chicago Cubs:

“I’ve already talked to some of Tucker’s people and he is beyond thrilled to be joining what he said was an iconic franchise”, per @JesseRogersESPN on MLB Network.

(📸: @MLBONFOX)

Hoby Milner Pitch-Level Movement Data 2024

Sweeper - 33% Usage - 76% Ideal - .301 wOBA
Sinker - 32% Usage - 0% Ideal - .428 wOBA
4S - 21% Usage - 0% Ideal - .132 wOBA
Changeup - 14% Usage - 45% Ideal - .334 wOBA

PitchMix+ - 100.5+
Movement+ - 101.4+

4S is 92nd Percentile HVB. Use it more Hoby!

Kyle Finnegan Pitch-Level Movement Data from 2024

4S - 68% Used - 11% Ideal - .347 wOBA against
Splitter - 27% Used - 42% Ideal - .299 wOBA against
Slider - 6% Used - 80% Ideal - .120 wOBA against

101.9 - Pitch Mix+
98.4 - Movement+

Fastball was the drawback last year, evident in pitch heat maps

The culmination of a lot of Statcast Python and Machine Learning Algorithms, I’ve finally built out my MLB Player Dashboard highlighting Ideal Pitches based on HVB/IVB. Will be updating for Cubs related targets & signing throughout a hopefully busy offseason!

Offensively they’re equivalent wRC+ last 3 seasons and Dansby is better defensively. Not sure I understand this one

After a day of data work, here's the Matthew Boyd 2024 Pitch Movement Analysis!

If I were the Cubs, I'd move away from the sinker, doesn't move well against league wide results and had bad results. 4-Seam doesn't rate well but it got results, let him do his thing. Hammer the Slider usage!!

My 2¢ on Boyd:

He’s nothing more than a SP4/5 signing. If the Cubs only sign a SP5/5 it’s a miss on one of the offseason goals on an experienced playoff starter. I wouldve preferred Maybe 14/1 instead of 2 years? But hey get your guy early and fast. Good move by Jed

Woof. Hopefully this becomes a priority via trade/draft this year

Chasm to Hell? It’s already in St. Louis, what more of a Hell can they have?

Over 400 Followers?! You guys are the best!!

500 followers, 2 folks who RT this will get a BBTI Adidas Sweatshirt.

1,000 Followers? 2 Sweatshirts and 1 pair of Cub tickets!

Reminders:

Patreon to help support growth!

Listen/Watch BBTI. Comment on YT. Review on Apple and Spotify

Share!

I’d argue even if you didn’t make the trade for Morgan and instead signed a FA RP, it might be worse for the organization overall. This opens up Eli Lovich (higher ceiling than Rosario) ABs at Myrtle Beach and adds an optionable reliever for flexibility (which you can’t get from a FA)

Sources: Cubs are trading for RHP Eli Morgan from Cleveland. To clear roster room, Chicago plans on DFA’ing INF Patrick Wisdom.

@sahadevsharma.bsky.social reporting the return to Guardians is an “A-ball player.” Awaiting details.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was first on the Morgan acquisition.

I expect him to be a year 3 or 4 on the ballot guy to get in. Will take a while for the argument to be made in the shadow of some really strong ballots this year and coming up

Gilbert's not saving them significant money ($8.1m Spotrac Projection) to justify moving a top 20 SP in the game, so I'd limit any dreams of getting him. Castillo I'm all on board for, will explore what trade packages work some more but definitely a good Singer alternative!

Great read Meghan! Unfortunately for us impatient fans we won't know whether these 10+ year megadeals are smart business or not. Here's hoping Jed is right that they aren't good baseball moves (I tend to agree, even on Soto)

Chicago Cubs need a superstar. Here’s why it won’t be free-agent slugger Juan Soto. The Chicago Cubs will not be involved in slugger Juan Soto’s free-agent process, opting not to pursue the superstar outfielder this offseason.

Cubs need a superstar. But they aren’t pursuing Juan Soto in FA. On factors with big contracts and ownership leaving decisions to FO:

“I honestly feel like if you get too involved you’re probably not adding much value,” Tom Ricketts told Tribune last month. www.chicagotribune.com/2024/11/19/c...

Agreed as well, that acquisition cost is just way higher for Woo (the most realistic)

Maybe Luis Castillo is right in value but at that point would rather see Jed sign Eovaldi/Kikuchi

Been a top discussion in TSW about Nico for Singer trade framework. Cubs fan perspective is I’d want a second piece along with Singer just because Nico carries more value imo, but the deal definitely fits

FIFA's lowest-ranked team San Marino earn UEFA Nations League promotion after beating Liechtenstein San Marino, the world’s lowest-ranked international team, have won promotion to the third tier of the Nations League following their 3-1 victory over Liechtenstein. The minnows, ranked 210th by football’s world governing body FIFA, defied the odds to…

FIFA's lowest-ranked team San Marino earn UEFA Nations League promotion after beating Liechtenstein: San Marino, the world’s lowest-ranked international team, have won promotion to the third tier of the Nations League following their 3-1 victory over Liechtenstein.
The minnows, ranked 210th by…

Second 11/22/63

Extremely underrated logo from Bluesky. Hadn’t paid attention to it until this

What’s crazier is there were more runs scored in 2024 than 2010!