Dimitar Keranov, PhD

"PAS secured a national majority to keep EU-accession reforms moving, but Taraclia—home to 🇲🇩 Moldova’s Bulgarian minority—again voted heavily for the pro-Russia Patriotic Bloc."

More in my commentary here:

biip-varna.github.io/articles/tar...

China’s Quiet Strategy in Bulgaria: Economic Appeal, Political Constraints

"As an #EU and #NATO member, #Bulgaria 🇧🇬 must balance economic opportunities with #China 🇨🇳 against risks to national security, Western alliances, the rule of law, and democracy."

Read more in my & A. Metodieva's analysis:

www.gmfus.org/news/chinas-...

@gmfus.bsky.social @engagingce.bsky.social

Anti-Foreign NGO Laws: A Tool to Repress Civil Society Transatlantic Trusts Central Europe Regional Director Daniel Hegedüs appeared before the US House of Representatives’ Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission to give testimony for a hearing on laws outside...

How do anti-NGO laws impact human rights & democracy in Central Europe?
Check out my written testimony to the
@tlhumanrights.bsky.social on the topic, now published by
@gmfus.bsky.social @engagingce.bsky.social @authlibeu.bsky.social
👉 gmfus.org/news/anti-fo...

We had an extremely informative and in-depth election readout with Andrea Michalcová, @petraguasti.bsky.social & Vít Dostál about the domestic and EU & foreign policy implications of the 🇨🇿 elections.
Key takeaway & video in THREAD
@gmfus.bsky.social
@authlibeu.bsky.social
@engagingce.bsky.social

📢 Figyelem, magyarországi civil szervezetek és informális csoportok!
Jelentkezzetek most a #FOREST programra, hogy fejlesszétek jogi, digitális, pénzügyi és mentális ellenállóképességeteket.
Mentorálás, képzések és kapcsolatépítési lehetőségek várnak rátok!
ℹ️Jelentkezési határidő: 2025. október 20.

📢Výzva pre všetky mimovládne organizácie a občianske iniciatívy na #Slovensku!
Prihláste sa do programu #FOREST a posilnite svoju právnu, digitálnu, finančnú a psychickú odolnosť.
Čakajú na vás mentoring, školenia a príležitosti na networking!
➡️Info: tinyurl.com/2d5txbx3

FOREST Fostering CSOs’ Resilience to Shrinking Spaces and Strengthening their Capacities through Individual Mentoring and Value Mainstreaming in Hungary and Slovakia Fostering CSOs’ Resilience to Shrinking S...

📢Calling all CSOs & civic groups in #Hungary & #Slovakia!
❗️Apply until Oct 20, 2025 for #FOREST to boost your legal, digital, financial & psychological resilience.
Mentoring, trainings & networking opportunities await!
⬇️Info⬇️

@gmfus.bsky.social

Risk Assessment: Electoral Integrity in Moldova Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine since February 2022 has not only destabilized European security but has also intensified hybrid threats across Eastern Europe. In the Republic of Moldova…

🇲🇩 "Moldova is confronted with a growing web of internal and external threats as well as risks to electoral integrity."

Ahead of this weekend's elections in Moldova, explore a risk assessment of electoral integrity there:

Time to re-up our recent @gmfus.bsky.social paper by @laurentiuplesca.bsky.social setting out three election and post-election scenarios in Moldova. The final score for Alternativa and Our Party will be determinant in two of them.

Russia Has Lost Moldova The results of Moldova’s parliamentary elections demonstrate a decisive political shift. Pro-Russian narratives, propaganda networks, and entrenched corruption can no longer dominate the national…

🇲🇩 The results of Moldova’s parliamentary elections demonstrate a decisive political shift and confirm the nation's democratic resilience.

🗳️ Read Will Kingston-Cox and GMF's Laurențiu Pleșca's analysis on the Moldovan elections here:

"From the first day of Russia’s full-scale invasion, it has been clear that the consequences of the war would not be limited to physical destruction. What Ukraine faced was a systemic breakdown of infrastructure...," writes GMF's Valeriia Ivanova.

➡️ buff.ly/RUkaNoY

The Drone Wall

The #DroneWall might be necessary to maintain societal resilience but is not a strategic answer to 🇷🇺's hybrid warfare.
Instead of responding to tactical moves, Europe should address the Kremlin's strategy.
Check out my latest policy brief 🖊️ for @gmfus.bsky.social 👉 www.gmfus.org/news/drone-w...

The pro-European party won Moldova’s election but obstacles to join the EU remain Russia’s campaign to amplify societal distrust continues as membership talks have stalled

🇲🇩 🇷🇺 “The goal of the Russian interference is to amplify societal distrust, to diminish the confidence that the Moldovan public has not just in its government and president, but also in its European future,” GMF's Clara Volintiru told the Guardian

Today, national security executive Dr. Daniel Kliman joins GMF as senior vice president for global power shifts. He will oversee a new GMF pillar on adapting the transatlantic partnership to a shifting global landscape and serve as a member of the GMF executive team. Learn more: buff.ly/KG6czAd

Competitiveness Check—September 30 Edition The Quick Take

📈 In the latest roundup of the competitiveness check, GMF experts highlight new tariffs announced and the top five transatlantic trade-related developments.

➡️ Read the full roundup here: www.gmfus.org/news/competi...

The World According to Andrej Babiš According to all polls and expectations, Andrej Babiš and his ANO party will come out of Czechia’s October 3–4 parliamentary elections as the most important political force for the next four years,…

🇨🇿 "...should ANO lead the next government, there will most likely be more continuity than change in foreign policy, even if there is a different tone and a greater focus on NATO than on the EU."

Ahead today and tomorrow's Czech elections, read an analysis by fellow Pavel Havlicek:

The Drone Wall September has witnessed a profound rise in the intensity of Kremlin hybrid warfare against EU and NATO member states, setting off alarm bells with European leaders and among their publics. Moscow is…

🇺🇦 "[Measures like the drone wall] although necessary, divert financial and military resources away from Ukraine, which remains the most efficient use of resources for containing and deterring Russia," writes @danielhegedus.bsky.social. www.gmfus.org/news/drone-w...

Andrej Babis Likely to Return as Czech Prime Minister After Parliamentary Win The party of Andrej Babis, a billionaire and a skeptic of military support to Ukraine, prevailed in parliamentary elections by focusing on the economy.

"Mr. Babis’s return to power would reflect an increasing polarization of voters who seesaw between illiberal populists and pro-Western democratic values, especially in Eastern Europe."

GMF Expert @danielhegedus.bsky.social featured in the New York Times:

Czechia Is No Hungary The Czech parliamentary election brought a stronger than anticipated comeback for Andrej Babiš’ populist ANO.  Having secured a clear plurality in the October 3–4 election—34.5 % of the vote, and…

Czechia ≠ Hungary. Babiš’s win doesn’t mean Orbán-style illiberalism is coming. Checks, coalitions, and EU ties keep things balanced.

➡️ Read Zsuzsanna Végh’s take via GMF: buff.ly/6Sxv5UA

Bulgaria’s Ties to Moldova’s Ethnic Minorities: A Channel for Pro-EU Engagement Russia exploits its linguistic and cultural ties to Moldova’s ethnic minorities as part of its malign influence campaign. This policy brief highlights how Bulgaria’s little-noticed diaspora…

🇲🇩 🇪🇺 The coming decade will determine whether Moldova completes its progress along EU accession or slips into indefinite geopolitical limbo. The stakes are existential—not only for Moldova, but for the resilience of democracy in a region under siege.

🔗@dimker.bsky.social's analysis:

Bulgaria’s Ties to Moldova’s Ethnic Minorities: A Channel for Pro-EU Engagement Russia exploits its linguistic and cultural ties to Moldova’s ethnic minorities as part of its malign influence campaign. This policy brief highlights how Bulgaria’s little-noticed diaspora engagement...

Ahead of the elections in Moldova, my @gmfus.bsky.social colleague @dimker.bsky.social writes that Bulgaria's diaspora policy toward the country's ethnic minorities (which goes under most analysts' radar, I guess) offers an opportunity to counter Russian influence in these communities.

YouTube video by Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission Laws Regulating Foreign NGOs: Human Rights Implications

Excellent testimony & recommendations from @gmfus.bsky.social @danielhegedus.bsky.social at the U.S. Congressional @tlhumanrights.bsky.social hearing on “Laws Regulating Foreign NGOs: Human Rights Implications” — touches on Slovakia, Bulgaria and Hungary.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=gu4B...

A Calculated Display

What to think of Trump's 2nd state visit? In my latest piece for
@gmfus.bsky.social, I argue that it was a success -- but that doesn't mean the UK and US relationship will always be smooth. Thread: www.gmfus.org/news/calcula...

Risky Configuration: China’s Footprint in Germany’s Technology Stack Germany—just like the EU as a whole—has recognized the strategic importance of reducing unilateral dependencies in digital technologies. In the face of geopolitical threats and economic uncertainty,…

🇨🇳 "[China's] growing dominance in the German technology landscape threatens both Germany’s national security and its long-term economic resilience."

Read a new report from GMF's Sharinee Jagtiani, assessing the digital footprint of PRC entities in Germany’s technology ecosystem:

Risky Configuration: China’s Footprint in Germany’s Technology Stack Germany—just like the EU as a whole—has recognized the strategic importance of reducing unilateral dependencies in digital technologies. In the face of geopolitical threats and economic uncertainty,…

🇩🇪 Using a five-layer “tech stack” framework—network infrastructure, data infrastructure, device, application, and governance—a new GMF Technology report maps China’s presence across Germany’s tech ecosystem, and links it to Beijing’s strategic ambitions.

Read now: www.gmfus.org/news/risky-c...

No Longer Invisible: How a Veterans Organization Is Securing a Place for Women in Ukraine’s Armed Forces The war with Russia began in 2014, yet it was not until 2018 that Ukrainian women were officially allowed to hold combat roles in the armed forces. Prior to that, they could serve in assault units…

🇺🇦 "...even after rights [to active combat roles for women] were equalized, things didn’t change overnight."

GMF grantee Women's Veterans Movement supports Ukrainian female service members from active combat to reintegration. Read about their work and its impact:

Cross-Border Communication: How Russian State Media Sends Mixed Signals on Trump’s Border Policies in English and Spanish Since his first day returning to office, US President Donald Trump has pushed forward on campaign promises to crack down on illegal immigration and secure the southern US border. Trump’s tough stance ...

Russian state media’s English and Spanish-language accounts adopted contradictory positions on Trump’s immigration and border policies to exacerbate friction between the United States and Latin America.

See my findings from my new @securedemocracy.bsky.social @gmfus.bsky.social analysis below ⤵️

Risk Assessment: Electoral Integrity in Moldova Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine since February 2022 has not only destabilized European security but has also intensified hybrid threats across Eastern Europe. In the Republic of Moldova…

🇲🇩 "Moldova is confronted with a growing web of internal and external threats as well as risks to electoral integrity."

🗳️ Ahead of the this September's election in Moldova, read a risk assessment from GMF's Transatlantic Foundation with support from the European Union:

China’s Quiet Strategy in Bulgaria: Economic Appeal, Political Constraints

"As an 🇪🇺 EU and NATO member, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria must balance economic opportunities with 🇨🇳 China against risks to national security, Western alliances, the rule of law, and democracy. Yet, its awareness of 🇨🇳 China’s influence remains underdeveloped."

@gmfus.bsky.social

Read my & Asya Metodieva's report:

Who’s Reusing Russian State Media’s Images? Who’s Reusing Russian State Media’s Images?

🖼️ GMF's Alliance for Securing Democracy successfully mapped the domestic and international dissemination networks of images originating from Sputnik Media Bank, a Russian state media operation.

🇷🇺 Read more about the research by Senior Investigative Research Officer Peter Benzoni: