@state-of-format.bsky.social
Data-driven insights into the current draft format of Magic: The Gathering
Aetherdrift Week 5: The format isnβt shifting much, but Traditional Draft is seeing a small resurgence. We take a closer look at how win rates compare between Premier and Traditional Draftβsome surprising differences show up!
state-of-the-format.com/posts/dft-we...
#MagicArena #MTGDraft #LimitedMTG
Yes, took me a while to understand my misconception. I went back to the data and adjusted for that and the differences were gone.
Sorry for the confusion and thanks for bringing the issue to my attention!
Just to be clear, the "unexpected" thing I found turned out to be a mistake in my analysis. The wrong parts of my analysis were removed from the article to avoid spread of misinformation.
18.03.2025 11:04 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0I'm truly sorry for the confusion I was creating, and I'm proud of our vigilant community to spot such a mistake early on.
I removed the sections about the rank distribution and pod seatings from my blog post, the rest of my article about the 17Lands draft share is still valid though.
looking into them I found a fundamental mistake I made in my analysis.
I assumed that the distribution of ranks within the 17Lands drafts was constant but of course it changes drastically each month. Looking at smaller time windows of only a couple of days revealed no significant differences.
π¨β οΈ Error in the Analysis: Premier Drafts are truly random!
Since I published my article about my analysis of 17Lands draft share and rank distribution I got a lot of feedback and questions. A couple of people pointed out potential problems with my analysis of the rank and draft seatings and after
I definitely want to do this going forward. Not sure if I'm gonna do it for past sets, it took quite some time to load all the data into a database and run the matching algorithm.
Maybe if I find some more performance optimizations I will consider it. It's for sure interesting!
The rank data is captured at the time of the draft. So the pairs of paired ranks is always a current snapshot. If I understand correctly what you are saying this should not be an issue then, right?
18.03.2025 09:03 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0
Ever wondered how many #MTGArena drafters actually use 17Lands? π€
I ran the numbers on the public dataset, matched thousands of draft pods, and found the answer. Plus, I discovered something unexpected about how Arena seats its drafts.
Check it out here: state-of-the-format.com/posts/how-ma...
Players are moving away from Aetherdrift, making week 4 of the format the least played week in the last year. Check out how the meta is settling down in this compact overview π
#MTGA #MagicArena #MTGDraft #LimitedMTG
Greenβs been running the show in DFT, I dug into the public 17Lands dataset to see what works against Green decksβwhat removal lines up, which cards overperform against each green archetype.
If youβre tired of getting steamrolled by Ketradons, this oneβs for you.
#MTGA #Aetherdrift #LimitedMTG
Week 3 of Aetherdrift Draft: White is making a comeback, Rakdos is rising, and Green is still strong but more contested than ever. Plus, some key cards are climbing in value while others are falling off. Get the latest insights to stay ahead in your drafts!
#MTGA #MagicArena #MTGDraft #LimitedMTG
After hearing praise about Rakdos in #Aetherdrift in recent podcasts, I decided to do an analysis of Black/Red trophy decks. Here's a detailed breakdown how Rakdos works and which cards are essential to succeed with it. #mtgarena
state-of-the-format.com/posts/rakdos...
I did a trophy deck analysis of Orzhov because I also felt it was underdrafted. I think thereβs potential for some fun decks.
state-of-the-format.com/posts/orzhov...
Real nice statistical take on the self-correcting nature of draft. Thanks for crunching the numbers π
26.02.2025 15:33 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Week 2 of Aetherdrift: Green's popularity keeps climbing, but its win rate is slipping. Meanwhile, White is quietly gaining ground. Check out the latest meta shifts and some interesting cards that stood out this week!
state-of-the-format.com/posts/dft-we...
Draft is self-correcting. How many times did you hear that?
Now you can see it thanks to 17Lands data. And don't worry - explanation follows.
1/7
White/Black is the least drafted archetype on 17Lands right now, despite an average win rate.
I took a closer look at Orzhov trophy decks to find out what's working and want to share my results with you.
What's your experience with WB in DFT so far? ποΈπ
state-of-the-format.com/posts/orzhov...
Week 1 of Aetherdrift is here, and the numbers are crunched! π Green is dominating, Boros is struggling, and two-color decks are king. Curious about the best archetypes and what cards make them tick? Get a full breakdown and stay ahead of the meta! π
state-of-the-format.com/posts/dft-we...
New Major Update: State of the Format now has overview pages for each archetype in #Aetherdrift, featuring key players, over- and undervalued cards, and common trapsβall in one convenient place. Check it out and let me know what you think!
state-of-the-format.com/archetype/BG/
Just opened @17lands.bsky.social and was surprised by the new great-looking card grades view. This is a great improvement in UX as I'm sure it is the kind of information most people want to get out of the website. Great job π
24.12.2024 17:17 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Week 2 Meta Game Analysis for Pioneer Masters! π Find out what changed in the format and discover where you can gain an edge in your next draft. π§ β¨ Read more here:
state-of-the-format.com/posts/pio-we...
#mtgArena #mtgDraft
With Pioneer Masters stealing the spotlight, Foundations Week 5 has a smaller datasetβbut the meta still has stories to tell. Top colors, archetypes, and card standouts await. Full analysis here:
state-of-the-format.com/posts/fdn-we...
#mtgArena #mtgDraft #mtgFoundations
Pioneer Masters Week 1: Boros and Rakdos lead the pack, but the meta has plenty to explore. I break down the top-performing archetypes, key cards, and a few traps to watch out for. Read the full analysis here:
state-of-the-format.com/posts/pio-ov...
#mtgdraft #mtgArena #MagicTheGathering
π§΅
In my latest episode I mention the "secret archetype" in Pioneer Masters draft: mono Red. So I thought - why not go a bit deeper into those decks? MonoR still sits comfortably at 71.7% win rate on 17Lands.com. Certainly a number that is worth noticing. 1/9
Week 4 of Foundations is in the books! 17Lands data highlights just how balanced this set turned out to be. Not ready for Pioneer Masters yet? Dive into the stats and reflect on what made this Limited environment so interesting.
#mtgArena #mtgdraft
state-of-the-format.com/posts/fdn-we...
Selesnya was the third best performing archetype in week 3 of Foundations (Premier Draft).
I used the 17Lands dataset to find sub-archetype - flavors - of Selesnya in a data-driven approach and present my findings in this article. #mtgdraft #MTGArena
state-of-the-format.com/posts/selesn...
I took a deep dive into Gruul in Foundations and did a full archetype crackdown. Green may be the least played color, but Gruul is outperforming expectations. Here's what I learned:
state-of-the-format.com/posts/gruul-...
#MagicTheGathering #MTGFoundations #MTGArena #mtgdraft
