Zac Gross

Cool figure. Kinda wish they weighted it by head count/revenue.

Just current flows I think.

If you get a Powerpal they will give you an estimate.

They are owned by Amber, but clearly not fudging the numbers in my case!

Ha of course you are!

All depends on the marginal cost of asking your spouse to turn off the heater/aircon when it spikes to $10,000. Highly variable!

My understanding is that this is not correct? Batteries often have payback periods longer than their lifespan (though it varies by state)

Panels in their own is entirely a load shifting question - which can be done for zero fixed cost with many “free power at lunch” plans

Has total cost declined? Seems maybe no!

Would a corporate tax cut boost productivity in Australia? So far, the evidence is unclear In Australia, it remains unclear why previous corporate tax reductions largely failed to generate investment.

Would a corporate tax cut boost productivity in Australia? So far, the evidence is unclear
theconversation.com/would-a-corp...

This is so dope, well done @zacgross.bsky.social igross.github.io/cash-rate-fo...

The Smart Way to Retaliate Against Trump’s Tariffs Why make your own citizens pay, when you can make Big Pharma do it instead?

This, by @zacgross.bsky.social, is very smart take on how Albo should respond to the Trump tariffs open.substack.com/pub/gross/p/...

I was skeptical but it turns out cost of living subsides do affect underlying inflation rates!

The trimmed mean can still be substantially affected, but the weighted median is relatively unbiased

Which price is right? How subsidies affect underlying inflation

Another excellent piece by @zacgross.bsky.social and why I will be looking at the weighted median when it comes out later today.

open.substack.com/pub/gross/p/...

Which specific part of the NAIRU equation(s) do you disagree with?

In NAIRU We Trust (But Verify) The RBA has beefed up it's approach to the estimating full employment

A great read on estimating the NAIRU from
@zacgross.bsky.social #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

gross.substack.com/p/in-nairu-w...

Mean Charts On Wednesdays we calculate the median wage statistics

There have been two economic charts going semi-viral— or at least what counts as viral for ABS statistics—in the past couple of weeks.

Both claim to show a dramatic fall in living standards in Victoria and Australia. Both are wrong.

gross.substack.com/p/mean-charts

3 year terms often get criticised for undermining long term reform. But IMO lots of the legislation wouldn’t have passed this week if the non government parties didn’t have the impending election in mind…

RBA board overhaul back in play after Labor, Greens reopen talks The Albanese government has reopened talks with the Greens on reforms of the Reserve Bank, two months after declaring them dead.

Be still my beating heart!

www.afr.com/politics/fed...

Of course. Neither do I!

I guess I more meant hot takes that have since cooled (or gotten hotter!)

A permanent rise is not yet price in IMO.

Blanket 25% both eliminates favour trading and would be quite unpopular. Unlikely to stick long term IMO.

In this working paper that was published today, Matthew Maltman and I review some of the economic evidence on the effects of ✨upzoning✨in Auckland in 2016.

tldr: We find remarkably robust evidence that upzoning led to more housing and lower rents in Auckland. Wow!
www.motu.nz/our-research...

He picked Powell in the first place because he couldn’t trust his lackeys not to veer off into hawkish conservatism!

My point is public demand doesn’t include transfers, obviously a big deal in the past few years!

Is this really the right measure of stimulus? Budget deficits paint a very different picture.

What were your biggest forecast misses through the year and why?

They should just rename vaccines “supplements” so everyone will like them.

The IRA though has been greatly stymied by permitting rules and regulations!

... Why would we exclude non-developed countries? I have also seen versions in which India is cited too.

I think a index of polling of all governing parties would be interesting - but I doubt it would correlate that strongly with inflation.

Mostly importantly why does it matter?

The job of politicians/advisers/governments is to win elections regardless of the state of the world.

Saying "I wouldn't start from here" is just a failure to do their job.

4) This includes places where the government clearly self immolated (UK), or where polling suggests that the popularity was lost well before inflation occured (Austria).

The "inflation is turfing out governments everywhere" narrative is vastly overblown IMO.

1) We are talking about 7 data points. 7!

2) Inflation peaked in 2022/23, but there is no anti incumbent results then

3) It randomly excludes some elections where the incumbent party did better like Mexico!

How does it compare to the bad place?