Marc Chandler

Week Ahead: US Data Resumes and Shifting Central Bank Outlooks Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Week Ahead: US government data resumes with the Sept employment report on Nov 20. Meanwhile, view of central bank trajectory is in flux.
Be prepared.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/week...

Notable FX option expirations
$1.1625 and $1.1650 for 1.6 bln and 950 mln euros, respectively
$1.3100 GBP330 mln
CAD1.4025-30 $1.1 bln Friday and CAD1.40 for $510 mln Monday
JPY155 for $1 bln Monday

Sterling and Gilts Weighed Down by UK Government Budget Shift Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

USD is firmer, but largely within yesterday's ranges. Shift in UK govt budget strategy weighs on GBP and Gilts. Risk off weighs on Scandis and dollar bloc. Poor PRC data but new low USD fix since last Oct. Tariff relief on US food imports?
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/ster...

Sterling and Gilts Weighed Down by UK Government Budget Shift Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

USD is firmer, but largely within yesterday's ranges. Shift in UK govt budget strategy weighs on GBP and Gilts. Risk off weighs on Scandis and dollar bloc. Poor PRC data but new low USD fix since last Oct. Tariff relief on US food imports?
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/ster...

Notable FX option expirations
$1.1625 and $1.1650 for 1.6 bln and 950 mln euros, respectively
$1.3100 GBP330 mln
CAD1.4025-30 $1.1 bln Friday and CAD1.40 for $510 mln Monday
JPY155 for $1 bln Monday

Fed's Hammock does not appear ready to cut rates again. She sees the policy setting as "barely" restrictive, and unlike Miran, believes that the neutral rate has been rising recently. Still, she, like others, seemed sensitive to any further labor mkt deterioration.

through the Feb high this yr is near MXN18.18. Below there, challenges the MXN18.00 area, but there is little to hang one's hat on until the MXN17.45-60 area. (2/2).

USD is falling for the seventh consecutive session against MXN. It reached almost MXN18.2530. It is the lowest since Oct 1. Low for the yr was set on Sept 17 ~MXN18.20. B4 the run-up to last yr's Mex election, it saw a low ~MXN16.26. The 61.8% retracement of the move...(1/2)

The swaps market has downgraded the chances of a BOJ hike next month. At the end of last week, it was seen as nearly a 50/50 proposition. Now, after falling for the fifth consecutive session today, it is pricing in about a 34% chance. I lean the other way, fwiw.

US Dollar Remains Soft Despite Disappointing UK Growth and Eurozone Industrial Output Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

USD is softer despite disappointing UK growth and EMU Sept industrial output figures. DXY snapped 5-day slide yesterday but losses have been extended today. Gold is higher while WTI is stabilizing after yesterday's glut-feared 4.2% plunge.
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/us-d...

Notable FX option expirations tomorrow:
1.25 bln euros at $1.1575 and ~1.65 bln euros at $1.1590
Almost $500 mln at CAD1.3980
Nearly 530 mln euros at GBP0.8850 and ~345 mln euros at GBP0.8800.
~A$1.6 bln at $0.6520-25

ICYMI: 1.9 bln GBP options at $1.31 expire today. Sterling's low so far is slightly below $1.3110. Last week's low was near $1.30,and $1.3100 is the halfway mark since its recover that faltered near $1.3200 on Monday.
Be prepared: marctomarket.com/2025/11/yen-...

Yen Slumps but Material Intervention Still Seems Unlikely, Sterling Holds $1.31, and PBOC Fix USD at New Low Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

USD is mostly consolidating in yesterday's ranges. JPY is a notable exception. Its slump extended into 4th consecutive session. GBP drew closer to $1.31 where GBP1.9 bln options expire today. PBOC set USD fix at new low since last Oct.
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/yen-...

Trendline in $Euro being frayed.
Be prepared www.marctomarket.com

Yen and Sterling Weakness Featured Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

US bank/bond holiday today, while equities are open. Canadian markets enjoy full holiday. Disappointing jobs report weighs on $GBP and $JPY slipped to a marginal new 8-month low. $Euro and $CHF firm.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/yen-...

Deal to Re-Open the US Government Helps Boost Risk Appetites Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Deal to re-open the US government appears at hand. Equities like it but Treasuries not so much. $USD is mixed with dollar bloc and Scandis rising. US yield rise weighs on $JPY and $USD is approaching JPY154.50.
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/deal...

Deal to Re-Open the US Government Helps Boost Risk Appetites Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Deal to re-open the US government appears at hand. Equities like it but Treasuries not so much. $USD is mixed with dollar bloc and Scandis rising. US yield rise weighs on $JPY and $USD is approaching JPY154.50.
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/deal...

Two outlooks: Mine--the $USD rally is getting tired (marctomarket.com/2025/11/week...) or the Financial Times take on.ft.com/485se5y (no paywall), $USD decline is over. What do you think?

November 2025 Monthly Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

November 2025 Monthly Drops.
Be prepared.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/nove...

Week Ahead: Dollar Recovery Getting Tired Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

New weekly outlook. Check it out.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/week...
USD rally stalled in the middle of last week. Now what?

Week Ahead: Dollar Recovery Getting Tired Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

New weekly outlook. Check it out.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/week...
USD rally stalled in the middle of last week. Now what?

Equities Slide, the Greenback is Bid, while the Yen Recovers with more Verbal Intervention Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

US index futures poised to gap lower after Asia & European equities tumble. USD is bid against most currencies. Japanese verbal intervention and softer US yields has helped the yen recover. Sterling is at new 7m lows as budget woes weigh. RBA held steady.
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/equi...

Equities Slide, the Greenback is Bid, while the Yen Recovers with more Verbal Intervention Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

US index futures poised to gap lower after Asia & European equities tumble. USD is bid against most currencies. Japanese verbal intervention and softer US yields has helped the yen recover. Sterling is at new 7m lows as budget woes weigh. RBA held steady.
See marctomarket.com/2025/11/equi...

The euro is approaching $1.15. There are no significant options that expire there today, but on Thursday, there are options for 1.4 bln euros that expire there. Maybe stops today below $1.1490. US 2yr premium over Germany near best level since early Sept.

Greenback is Firm: Government Still Closed Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

The US dollar's recovery from the lows made after the FOMC cut rates on Sept 17 is being extended as October morphs in November. The US threats on Venezuela and now Nigeria have seen little market impact. See www.marctomarket.com/2025/11/gree...

November 2025 Monthly Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

November 2025 Monthly Drops.
Be prepared.
marctomarket.com/2025/11/nove...

Bullish Dollar Consolidation Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

After yesterday's surge, USD has consolidated near yesterday's best levels. The buying does not appear exhausted. Still, despite Powell's efforts, the Fed funds mkt is discounted around a 2/3 chance of a cut in December.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/10/bull...

US-China Agree to Unwind Recent Actions, while Greenback Consolidates Post Fed Move, and Yen Slumps after BOJ Stands Pat Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

US-PRC agree to unwind actions taken in recent weeks, including sanction of China's subsidiaries of sanctioned companies, port levies, rare earth/magnet export restrictions, and PRC to buy US soy (energy?). USD consolidating but against slumping JPY after BOJ/Fed
marctomarket.com/2025/10/us-c...

Japan's headline inflation fell 4 of past 5 months. It was at 2.9% in Sept down from 3.6% last Dec. US CPI has not fallen since Apr and at 3.0% in Sept is slightly above Dec 24 reading. Yet, US Tsy Sec wants BOJ to hike and Fed to cut. #glasshouses
marctomarket.com/2025/10/japa...

Japanese Verbal Intervention was More Effective than Bessent's, and the Dollar is Bid Ahead of FOMC Outcome Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

The USD is mostly firmer. A larger than expected rise in Australian CPI is underpinning the Aussie. Mkt optimism about US-PRC deal fanned by POTUS comments and report of Beijing's soy purchases. FOMC and Bank of Canada cuts lie ahead.
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/japa...