Daniel Lakens

Causion interface showing a front-door DAG

Played around with Causion by @isager.bsky.social
It's an impressive teaching tool for causal inference... and it also really pretty. Amazing color scheme and slick interface.
Shown below a demonstration of an extended front-door DAG in Causion.

That is always nice to hear :)

I will read it with interest, and different viewpoints are good. Carnap made great contribituons, and psychologists have written extremely crappy papers on what replications are. Fully agree there.

Indeed, currently (just based on priors) it is more likely that we will have to explain why the arguments in your book are wrong, than that your arguments will tell us anything new - mainly because you are too far removed from the actual science. But, we will see.

Psychologists of science have therefore also made the biggest impact on how science is done, instigated big changes in behavior, analyze the problems better, and even done better work conceptualizing (e.g my work on preregistration is better than anything else philosophers or sociologists did).

Not at all. In my experience, sociologists of science, and philosophers of science, are too often amateur psychologists of science - and we are much better at analysing science than they are (as we are experts on empirical data collection).

Introducing Causion: A web app for playing with DAGs | Peder M. Isager Personal website of Dr. Peder M. Isager

New blog post introducing Causion - a web app for causal inference teaching and learning: pedermisager.org/blog/causion....

We have Metascientific evidence that people do not submit null results because they fear they are not worth their time (in terms of impact, impact factor, etc). That is also why they do not do replications. Is self report and scientometric evidence not good?

Thanks so much!! My colleague Vlasta Sikimic already told me about it, very exited to read it, and discuss it on our upcoming podcast on incentives!

Can you send me a digital copy of your book? I am preparing a podcast episode on incentives. I would like to see the arguments you have against it, because I agree with Ian that people obviously respond to incentives (not publishing null results, etc) that lead to irreproducibility.

"Social media is like a Skinner box" is a phrase I've heard repeated a lot, but never meaningfully engaged with. We try and do so in this preprint.

Behaviorist principles are very useful to understanding digital behavior, but work in this area tends not to be aware of them. So, we provide a primer.

This was really helpful and very informative! Thank you so much for this talk.

This was a really great discussion with people pushing the boundaries of scientific resesrch in their ManyMany projects. Really the cutting edge of scientific knowledge generation!

Events # Open Webinar: What's the use of preregistration for Big Team Science? As part of our open science event series, we are excited to launch registration for our upcoming webinar: **What's the use of…

Tomorrow I will give a webinar on preregistration for the ManyMany's: What’s the use of preregistration for Big Team Science? You can join for free for the talk, and discussion afterwards.
For more info, see: manymanys.github.io/events/

Enhancing Transparency and Replicability in Entrepreneurship Research with Preregistrations, Registered Reports, and Registered Revisions: A Call for Papers

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

How many versions of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) exist? And how much does this affect research using the IGT? More than you might think. 🧵

23% of Americans want their State to separate from the USA. Alberta is polling at 19% wanting to separate. It's less separatist than: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington Montana, Idaho, California, Nevada, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Arkansas, Indiana, New York.......

Yes, our country did very bad things. A long time ago. Unlike your country, which is doing bad things today. It is not bullshit. You are worried you can't get out of a bad constitution because your countrymen will go to war. That is just not civilised. Sorry, but not sorry.

The European Union is bigger, and more diverse, then the US. It forces my country to do things the government does not want - but the government oblige, as the EU has power over us. Just like your states. The scale is not why the US has such big problems, really.

What do you mean? The big wars? Europe never started one. And the German ones are not related to any change in constitution - they just started one. And the EU 'constitution' has changed serval times (1992 was the start, changes every decade or so). I would say it is very successful.

(By the way, we last revised the constitution substantially in 1983. I was 3. Nothing happened. Few people would even know when quizzed).

Very interesting. If Dutch people would talk about changing the constitution, literally no one would think it becomes violent. I guess the US is really just not a civilised country yet.

As I said, you have violence in your streets anyway. The question is how you will have the least.

The Framers' Coup: The Making of the United States Constitution Americans revere their Constitution. However, most of us are unaware how tumultuous and improbable the drafting and ratification processes were. As Benjamin Franklin keenly observed, any assembly of m...

As I understood from www.amazon.com/Framers-Coup..., where this is called a coup, no one complained too much about the illegality of the new constitution because of the ongoing political dysfunction. Well, you have political dysfunction now too. So, why not try it again?

1787, when you created the current constitution.

I know my second proposal (a 1 person 1 vote) convention is not legal. But if you are stuck in a crap system, where you locked yourself in it, maybe you just ignore what is legal, and do what is the democratic desire of a country for a change? (if a majority wants it).

Or you do it how you did it last time, when you changed the constitution illegally but without violence. It was not that long ago. And a very Trump move - you ignore all agreements, and do it anyway. It would be very fitting, really. Give it a try.

You have violence in your cities already. So, the real concern is not if a new constitution leads to violence, but if it leads to more violence than if you do not change it. I think the world is quite concerned about the violence in our collective future if nothing changes.

I understand that it might be violent. No one wants this, and in a civilised country, I think it would not need to be. In the US it will likely be at least partly violent (but then your elections are already partly violent, the new president lets the criminals walk free, and you all do nothing).

There are some ways (through an amendment) that are legal (but difficult) but I would at the very least have expected a proposal for a national convention and vote (and with vote, I do not mean your flawed democracy, but a 1 person 1 vote system) to change it.

Yes, that is bad. If you invest in any company, it should be this one, I agree.