Australian Strategic Policy Institute

Taiwanese analysts sceptical about China’s barges with legs | The Strategist Since March, China has been making a splash with manoeuvres off its south coast involving a line of odd-looking barges with retractable legs that work like giant stilts. Taiwanese analysts aren’t impr...

'Analysts in Taiwan and elsewhere say that the barges are unlikely to be used in an initial assault. Instead, they would support follow-on forces. For instance, in a war’s final stages, they could help Chinese forces land if Taiwanese harbours were destroyed,' writes Jane Rickards.

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Tailored psychological warfare: a deepfake video of Hong Kong activists | The Strategist A deepfake video fabricating an online conversation between prominent Hong Kong activists has become the first known exercise in the next level of AI-enabled influence operations. Presumably concocted...

'With deepfake technology integrated into the Chinese influence operation playbook, the era of sophisticated cross-domain operation has emerged,' writes Sze-Fung Lee.

India, the US and the Quad: managing tensions to meet the China challenge | The Strategist India’s continued purchase of weapons and energy from Russia is raising difficulties in its relationship with the United States that are extending across the Indo-Pacific. This is not just a bilateral...

'India’s continued purchase of weapons and energy from Russia is raising difficulties in its relationship with the United States that are extending across the Indo-Pacific,' writes @raji143.bsky.social.

YouTube video by ABC News (Australia) Australia commissions $10b fleet of Japanese Mogami warships | ABC NEWS

On the strategic implications of 🇯🇵's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries building 🇦🇺's new fleet of frigates, ASPI's Dr Euan Graham tells ABC News: “I think [it] certainly adds depth to the navy-to-navy relationship and it anchors the defence partnership with an industrial project.”

📺 Watch now ⤵️

Nuclear weapons hang in a complex balance | The Strategist On the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, there is renewed focus on nuclear weapons in international security. China and other nuclear-armed states within Australia’s extended region...

'Longstanding assumptions about nuclear weapons and deterrence are being tested and reforged in the crucible of regional wars,' writes Euan Graham.

NEW PODCAST 🎙️

In this special episode of Stop the World, ASPI’s Resident Technical Specialist, Jocelinn Kang, joins David Wroe to talk through hyperscale cloud & why it’s increasingly important for countries to get their policies right depending on their strategic circumstances.

🎧: bit.ly/40Smrwq

Mogami acquisition is a strategic opportunity, including for economic security | The Strategist Announcing the decision to acquire frigates of Japan’s upgraded Mogami class, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy said on Tuesday that it was the design better...

'The acquisition of an upgraded version of the Mogami class, which is already in Japanese service, should also prime much wider economic collaboration between Australia and Japan,' writes Alex Bristow.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

In ‘Australia–Indonesia defence and security partnership’, Euan Graham and Gatra Priyandita warn that as hybrid threats escalate in the Indo-Pacific, Australia and Indonesia must overcome strategic differences to build a stronger defence partnership.

🔖 Read more: bit.ly/4mrPWxo

As AI worsens WMD threat, Australia must lead response | The Strategist Forty years ago, Australia proactively responded to the proliferation of chemical weapons by convening the highly successful Australia Group. That same proactive leadership is needed now to counter em...

'Australia’s regulatory response to a world rapidly changed by AI remains at an early stage. This creates gaps in our understanding of the risk and leaves potentially dangerous vulnerabilities unaddressed,' writes Devon Whittle.

Further reforms required for parliamentary oversight of intelligence agencies | The Strategist Reforms outlined in a July ASPI report, aimed at strengthening the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security’s (PJCIS), are insufficient. The recommendations don’t go far enough to fu...

'While securing the trust and confidence of the agencies is critical, Australians are entitled to expect that intelligence agencies are independently scrutinised and are held to account by their elected representatives,' writes Kate Grayson.

NEW PODCAST 🎙️

In this week's episode of Stop the World, China military scholar, Elsa B. Kania, joins ASPI's David Wroe to discuss China’s military modernisation, the role of technology in the PLA’s capabilities and China’s military rehearsals around Taiwan.

🎧 Listen here: bit.ly/4fkAl0r

Espionage costs Australia more than $12.5 billion a year: ASIO shows us the receipts | The Strategist Spying by nation states is not new, and despite our geography, Australia has never been immune. This was made abundantly clear in a unique study, released last night by Director-General of Security Mi...

'Modern espionage enables not just intelligence collection, but manipulation, disruption and strategic shaping. It doesn’t stop at the exfiltration of information. Increasingly, it’s about embedding influence and pre-positioning for strategic effect,' write Chris Taylor and James Corera.

Australia should balance innovation and sovereignty in supply chain security | The Strategist Australia must strike a better balance between independent control over its defence-industrial supply chains and staying open to global innovation, particularly in dual-use technologies. As strategic ...

'Australia must strike a better balance between independent control over its defence-industrial supply chains and staying open to global innovation, particularly in dual-use technologies,' writes Harry Geisler.

New Caledonia deal faces political, public test | The Strategist Political leaders and representatives from New Caledonia and France have done well with an agreement signed on 12 July to settle the Pacific island’s status. Now they must seriously engage with New Ca...

'While initial reactions from New Caledonian political leaders were largely positive, their challenge will be to sell the deal and its compromises to their constituents,' writes Adam Ziogas.

Australia and Canada should cooperate, not compete, on critical minerals | The Strategist The global critical minerals race is heating up, and by not collaborating more closely, Australia and Canada are letting down their partner nations. Despite being the world’s two most reliable and lik...

'In a world increasingly defined by great power competition, supply chain coercion and resource nationalism, Australia and Canada can either shape the future of critical minerals or get shaped by it,' write Ian Satchwell and John Coyne.

'After a two-decade slog of slow production, team Rafale has a path to being the most complete non-US air combat offering for the 2030s,' writes Bill Sweetman.

Mt Isa fights for its life, and a billion-dollar smelter bailout The regional centre’s population has slumped by almost 20 per cent over the past two decades. Without taxpayer help, that will be just the start, locals fear.

In the Australian Financial Review, @johncoyne14.bsky.social considers the feasibility of temporary taxpayer support for the Mt Isa copper smelter, weighing national security, regional development, and long-term economic growth.

Read more ⤵️

Enough to drive a cybersecurity officer mad: one rule here, a different rule there | The Strategist In April, more than 50 chief information security officers called on G7 and OECD member states to address the growing divergence in cybersecurity regulatory requirements. Rules are increasingly varyin...

'Domestic and regional manifestations of fragmentation have several consequences. Technical efficiency is impeded by compliance burdens and coordination failures. Innovation is undermined by regulatory complexity and restrictive processes,' writes Bart Hogeveen.

Thailand-Cambodia conflict: legacy politics and premeditated escalation | The Strategist The eruption of fighting between Thailand and Cambodia on 24 July may appear to have been sudden, but it was neither abrupt nor unforeseen. It was the product of a calculated build-up and was shaped ....

'Thailand’s political instability and the Shinawatra faction’s return to power may have seemed like a strategic opening for Hun Sen’s camp to push territorial claims more forcefully,' write Angela Suriyasenee and Nathan Ruser.

Shaken and stirred: Trainee spies frustrated at dated tech Australia’s next wave of spies are using office computers and software that are less powerful than the personal mobile phones banned from their desks.

In the @thenightly.bsky.social, the head of ASPI's Statecraft and Intelligence Policy Centre, Chris Taylor, discusses the findings of his new report on 🇦🇺's intelligence community and why intelligence agencies must adapt to embrace innovation.

Read more ⤵️
thenightly.com.au/australia/au...

Nurture, sustain innovation to make Australian intelligence ‘match fit’ | The Strategist Australia’s intelligence agencies must adapt to stay match fit as international contest intensifies. Even with recent transformational investments, the business model of the national intelligence comm...

'There is presently a window of opportunity to act before crisis strikes and any mistaken (and thus unaddressed) assumptions about our intelligence capabilities are found wanting,' writes Chris Taylor.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

In ‘Match-fit for the global contest?’, ASPI’s Chris Taylor argues that Australia’s intelligence agencies must embrace innovation to stay ahead of adversaries and keep pace with international partners as global strategic competition intensifies.

🔖 Read the report ➡️ bit.ly/4l5Ofom

Mapping a decade’s worth of hybrid threats targeting South Korea | The Strategist While Australia is coming to terms with the realities of hybrid threats, South Korea has long been on the front line. Reflecting its formal state of war with North Korea, South Korea has endured decad...

'Addressing hybrid threats in partnership, leveraging the experience of EU member states who have long confronted Russia’s malign intent, may well be the remedy needed to ensure no Indo-Pacific country is confronted by hybrid threats alone,' write Fitriani, Shelly Shih and Alice Wai.

Townsville should lead strategic basing for Littoral Lift Group | The Strategist The Australian Army’s new watercraft fleet needs a primary home port that maximises operational readiness, logistical efficiency and strategic reach. Townsville should be that home. While other locati...

'While other locations can complement the basing strategy, Townsville’s advantages are unmatched. But a clear investment from the government is needed to establish it as the central hub for the Littoral Lift Group,' writes Chris McDougall.

Undersea sensors—a US trump card China knows it must eliminate | The Strategist Unseen, largely unknown and, until recently, highly classified, the US Navy’s vast network of underwater sonars is one of its greatest advantages over rival fleets. The United States can detect many, ...

'It’s not a totally global, totally comprehensive surveillance system—but it’s close. And it vexes naval planners of the People’s Republic of China,' writes @davidaxe.bsky.social.

It was a privilege to host a workshop earlier this month in Canberra, on behalf of the @aspi-org.bsky.social, in partnership with adelphi and the Toda Peace Institute, on the theme of "Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region."

#climatesecurity

US alters tech policy, puts chips on the table | The Strategist A shift is underway in the Trump administration’s approach to tech policy. Nvidia said on 14 July that the US government would soon grant it licenses to resume exports of its H20 chips to China. ...

'Washington’s shifting approach to tech policy is likely to add further uncertainty for governments, national security practitioners, and businesses alike,' write Jennifer Lee and Fritz Lodge.

The Taiwan scenarios 4: The catastrophe | The Strategist By any measure, China’s four main choices for forcing unification with Taiwan—subversion, quarantine, blockade, or invasion—would all have far-reaching consequences for Beijing and the wider Indo-Paci...

'Publicly reinforcing Taiwan’s role as a responsible stakeholder in the region helps challenge Beijing’s propaganda and counters its attempts to isolate Taipei,' write @nathanattrill.bsky.social and ASPI Defence Strategy Staff.

Hardened in peace, ready for crisis: lessons from Israel | The Strategist Deep beneath the Israeli port city of Haifa lies a facility few would expect: a fully operational, blast-resistant hospital converted from an underground car park. The Sammy Ofer Fortified Underground...

'Infrastructure planning remains fragmented across federal, state and local governments, making a collective approach difficult. Building codes and national standards rarely require infrastructure to be designed with resilience or dual use in mind,' writes Raelene Lockhorst.