Australian Strategic Policy Institute

Replicating Sydney 2000’s success means addressing Brisbane 2032’s security requirements now | The Strategist The 2000 Sydney Summer Olympics were arguably the greatest ever. Their preparation also kickstarted the last quarter century of Australian national security capability building—considerably before 9/1...

'Decisions taken now—about technology platforms, data architectures, vendor relationships and intergovernmental coordination—will determine Australia’s exposure well beyond 2032,' writes Chris Taylor.

Critical minerals need reliable financing frameworks | The Strategist In critical minerals policy, one of the costliest things we can say is ‘we signed a memorandum of understanding’. Public announcements can signal intent, but they don’t build processing plants, turn o...

Without steady, coordinated finance that links miners to the manufacturers that depend on their materials, good intentions won’t translate into real capacity or secure supply,' writes John Coyne.

Resilience under fire: how US’s WWII airfield upgrades back Taiwan | The Strategist In World War II, the United States built a western Pacific airfield here, another there, and more elsewhere, each intended to bring more Japanese targets into range. Now the abundance of old bases is ...

'No publicly known exercise or basing initiative is explicitly framed as a Taiwan war rehearsal. Nevertheless, taken together, they reveal an emerging operational model that aligns closely with the requirements of a Taiwan contingency,' writes Rowan Allport.

Darwin is central to defence. It should be treated as such | The Strategist On 19 February 1942, Japanese aircraft attacked the harbour and town in what remains the largest single assault ever mounted on Australian soil. For much of Australia, it’s a historical reference poin...

'Darwin sits closer to Jakarta than to Canberra. It’s proximate to Southeast Asia’s maritime chokepoints and to the Indo-Pacific’s most dynamic economic and security corridors. For Territorians, distance isn’t measured in political narratives but in nautical miles,' writes John Coyne.

No, Trump’s tariff rise doesn’t damage the Australian–US alliance | The Strategist Amid alarm stemming from President Donald Trump’s on-and-off-again tariff rise this week, let’s not lose our ability to distinguish between a mere flesh wound and amputation. The administration’s deci...

'The president’s first term combined tariff activism and burden-sharing rhetoric with institutional continuity in Indo-Pacific defence settings. Tariffs functioned largely as bargaining leverage,' write John Coyne and Justin Bassi.

NEW PODCAST 🎤

In a special double episode of Stop the World, Dr Andrew Charlton joins David Wroe to discuss AI and the future of the Australian economy, while Maxwell Scott explains how AI could complement, enhance or replace certain human tasks.

🎧 Listen: bit.ly/4azaxNf

Four years of folly: mired in Ukraine, Putin won’t back down | The Strategist President Vladimir Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine has failed to achieve any of the strategic objectives he laid out when he began this disastrous folly. Yet he is compelled to persist in his va...

'It seems a dim prospect now, but we must trust that the day will come when Russians can hold an honestly elected government to account and exercise genuine choice about their future,' writes Peter Tesch.

Australia can reap the benefits of critical-minerals rivalry | The Strategist Accelerating geo‑economic competition to control supply chains for critical minerals is disrupting global markets and threatening security.  Resource-rich Australia is delicately positioned between ri...

'Australian companies aren’t just domestic producers; they’re global investors, operators and technology leaders. Demand for their products is only rising as the energy transition, digitisation, automation and defence modernisation accelerate,' writes Ian Satchwell.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

In ‘Disruption and opportunity: 🇦🇺 and critical minerals in a changing global order’, ASPI Senior Fellow Ian Satchwell argues 🇦🇺 must diversify its critical-minerals markets and activate dormant partnerships to secure a central role in global supply chains.

🔖: bit.ly/46i5PRy

Revelations of Chinese nuclear tests mark start of a new era | The Strategist As major powers renew their focus on nuclear testing, the world may be entering a new nuclear era. Revelations that Beijing has conducted secret nuclear tests should trigger greater focus on China’s e...

'China’s nuclear expansion and modernisation could lead to an accelerated and unbridled nuclear arms race, particularly since Chinese President Xi Jinping refuses to participate in meaningful dialogue and abide by agreements on such issues,' writes Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan.

China may yet persuade Southeast Asia to support new maritime order | The Strategist Step by step, China is creating a Southeast Asian maritime order under its leadership. It has become a key investor in the region’s blue economy and is strengthening security ties with countries that ...

'Step by step, China is creating a Southeast Asian maritime order under its leadership. It has become a key investor in the region’s blue economy and is strengthening security ties with countries that are concerned about the unreliability of the United States,' writes Aristyo Darmawan.

Holding out: for domestic munitions supply, Taiwan needs drones. Millions of drones | The Strategist Whether and for how long Taiwanese troops can hold off a Chinese invasion force may depend on how much ammunition Taiwan has stockpiled for a potentially apocalyptic battle. Taipei’s exact munitions s...

'Taipei’s exact munitions stocks are a closely guarded secret, but there’s evidence that too few rounds are held for certain key weapon systems, which would quickly fall silent as Chinese troops stormed ashore and Chinese ships blockaded Taiwan’s ports,' writes @davidaxe.bsky.social.

🚨 SAVE THE DATE 🚨

The ASPI Defence Conference returns in 2026.

This year's theme focuses on securing the region for an uncertain future.

📅 Thursday 25 June 2026
📍 Canberra, Australia

👀 More details coming soon.

France strikes to address misinformation weakening Western alliance | The Strategist The key destabilising feature of today’s information environment is no longer simply that democracies are targeted by adversaries’ misinformation and disinformation. Increasingly, the danger is coming...

'Monitoring and analysis should track not only adversarial narratives but also distortion emerging from friendly political ecosystems. This is analytically uncomfortable but strategically necessary, as hybrid threats can also use proxy ecosystems,' write Eric Frecon and Fitriani.

Making the Advanced Capability Investment Fund count | The Strategist Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy’s announcement of an Advanced Capability Investment Fund is an important acknowledgement that Australia’s innovation problem is not primarily about ideas; it’s...

'The government should shape markets, not attempt to micromanage them. But shaping markets requires more than writing a cheque,' writes Jason Van der Schyff.

NT Defence Week 2026 puts spotlight on readiness | The Strategist The 13th Australian Defence Magazine Northern Australia Defence Summit will return as part of NT Defence Week 2026 on 28 April. That timing matters. The 2024 National Defence Strategy is explicit: Aus...

'If northern Australia is the centre of gravity, it must be capable of generating and sustaining high-intensity operations from the outset,' writes John Coyne.

Washington’s expectations of allies come into focus in Munich | The Strategist US Vice President JD Vance used his speech at last year’s Munich Security Conference to chastise Europe for complacency in its security commitments. This year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Under...

'It was Colby’s interventions—both in Munich and days earlier at the NATO defence ministerial—that offered European allies the clearest roadmap. The US demands that Europe assume primary, not merely greater, responsibility for its own conventional defence,' writes Bart Hogeveen.

🚨 EVENT REMINDER 🚨

Don't miss ASPI Resident Senior Fellow David Wroe in conversation with Altana CEO Evan Smith in Canberra next week.

They’ll discuss how trust can become a strategic asset across global trade, defence supply chains and critical tech.

✍️ Register now: bit.ly/49Qngt6

Darwin Dialogue 2026 aims for aligned industrial strategy | The Strategist The speed of critical-minerals policy evolution has been unmistakable. In the past year alone, governments across the Indo-Pacific have tightened export controls, expanded sovereign investment vehicle...

'Global demand for key energy-transition minerals is projected to rise sharply through 2035, yet supply remains geographically concentrated,' writes John Coyne.

Beijing pressured Japan over Taiwan. It only strengthened Tokyo’s resolve | The Strategist Fresh from a decisive electoral landslide, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has emerged more politically secure than ever—despite Beijing’s attempt in 2025 to make her a cautionary example over ...

'By dramatically escalating public criticism against Japan in a single year, Beijing has elevated Tokyo’s prominence in Taiwan-related security debates rather than diminishing it. Attempts to deter discussion have instead drawn greater focus to Japan’s role,' writes Nathan Attrill.

Without clarity, Defence Estate Audit tests Australia’s trust | The Strategist Last week’s parliamentary committee hearings confirmed the need for, and the risks of, the Defence Estate Audit. The audit was meant to improve infrastructure efficiency. Instead, it has exposed a dee...

'The audit was meant to improve infrastructure efficiency. Instead, it has exposed a deeper strategic problem: Australians are no longer confident they understand what Defence is preparing for and why,' writes Raelene Lockhorst.

Diplomacy alone won’t end Russia’s war | The Strategist Peace talks began slowly at first, then all at once. But a durable peace will require changing Russia’s calculus, not Ukraine’s. A year ago, Kyiv was awash with hope that Russia’s war might finally be...

'Peace talks began slowly at first, then all at once. But a durable peace will require changing Russia’s calculus, not Ukraine’s,' writes Tennyson Dearing.

Demonstrating commitment and reducing risk: a British SSN heads to Australia | The Strategist The imminent visit to Perth of a British nuclear attack submarine (SSN) clearly demonstrates Britain’s commitment to AUKUS, going ahead despite the Royal Navy’s current challenges in deploying its SSN...

'While concerns have been raised about Britain’s capacity to carry its burden in the submarine program, its involvement is not the riskiest aspect of Australia’s acquisition plan. The largest risks are closer to home,' writes Richard Gray.

NEW PODCAST 🎙️

In this episode, Luke de Pulford, Executive Director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, unpacks how the cross-party network first came together, the challenges of holding 🇨🇳 to account & the impact of the 🇺🇸’ retreat from leadership of the liberal order.

🎧: bit.ly/3MIvn3v

Once unthinkable: Canada may choose a non-US fighter | The Strategist Canada may well cancel part of its 2022 order for 88 Lockheed Martin F-35As and replace them with Saab JAS 39E Gripens. One report suggests that Ottawa might cut the order in half and accept ...

'Canada may well cancel part of its 2022 order for 88 Lockheed Martin F-35As and replace them with Saab JAS 39E Gripens,' writes Bill Sweetman.

This doesn’t add up: as strategy looks north, Defence workforce shifts south | The Strategist While Australia’s defence strategy has moved north at speed, its permanent workforce has not. The latest analysis product from ASPI’s Northern Australia Policy Centre maps the distribution of regular ...

'While Australia’s defence strategy has moved north at speed, its permanent workforce has not,' writes Raelene Lockhorst.

Making hay while Trump shines: China’s tactical step back | The Strategist Beijing has temporarily adjusted how its military operates across the Indo-Pacific. This includes less aggressive behaviour from flotillas sailing deep into the region and its military engagements ins...

'Unsafe intercepts and close-quarter manoeuvres have, at least temporarily, declined in public reporting. That does not mean China’s presence is weaker. It means Beijing is choosing when and how to generate tension,' writes Joe Keary.

Ease submarine skills shortages with an AUKUS visa | The Strategist AUKUS needs its own visa. The security partnership’s Pillar One needs a smooth path for workers to move between member countries to help fill skills shortages that are impeding the effort to build and...

'An AUKUS visa would form part of the broader workforce strategy by granting skilled workers the mobility they need to transfer when and where projects are bottlenecked,' write Cherie Wright and Penny Harris.

Threatened by China, Japan’s voters choose to stand tall | The Strategist The character behind the scenes was China. Nobody expected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to win so big in the Lower House election on 8 February. With her Liberal Democratic Party holding 316 of the 4...

'A strategically minded government with strong public support in Tokyo over the next few years presents a golden opportunity to promote the special strategic partnership between Australia and Japan,' writes Shingo Yamagami.

Jointly rebuilding the Australian-US defence industrial base | The Strategist The United States’ 2026 National Defense Strategy may give Australia the impetus for accelerating its shift towards industrial sovereignty and deeper strategic economic integration with the US. But th...

'For Australia, moving from miner to manufacturer would directly support domestic capability, including advanced AUKUS Pillar 2 technologies, and embed Australian firms into US production networks, deepening strategic interdependence,' write Morgan Bazilian and Jahara Matisek.