Australian Strategic Policy Institute

RAAF ambitions: Ghost Bat successor, big missiles and more | The Strategist Launching an air-to-air missile from the Australian-developed Boeing MQ-28 Ghost Bat would be just the start of a new phase for the Royal Australian Air Force, according to a senior officer at the Def...

'Together with the increased range requirement, the speaker suggested, use of such big weapons would create a need for a larger combat aircraft type to succeed the Super Hornet and Growler, currently expected to retire in 2040 to 2045,' writes @valkstrategy.bsky.social.

Australia and Japan should secure the sea lanes that could decide the next war | The Strategist Australia and Japan should split the burden of protecting critical sea lines of communication (SLOC) in the Pacific. In an ASPI special report published today, Japan-Australia defence cooperation in t...

'Japanese and Australian interests overlap most substantially in Melanesia. The case for coordination is greatest in PNG and Solomon Islands, which both bracket or run parallel to the key SLOC between the east coast of Australia and Japan, forming a chokepoint,' writes Alex Bristow.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

In ‘Japan–Australia defence cooperation in the Pacific: The case for a partial division of labour’, Alex Bristow urges Australia and Japan to begin developing joint plans for a partial wartime division of labour in the Pacific to protect critical SLOCs.

🔖 Read more: bit.ly/4aRdusO

Tokyo, AUSMIN, AUKUS meetings: views from ASPI analysts | The Strategist In a blizzard of pre-holidays defence diplomacy, Defence Minister Richard Marles has, in his own words, been ‘doubling down on friends’. His weekend sprint to Tokyo to meet Japan’s new defence ministe...

'In a week that has seen much handwringing over the choice of wording in the latest US national security strategy, it is evident that messaging still matters,' writes Justin Bassi.

Another way to get supplies past the enemy: ghost-fleet tactics | The Strategist The solution to maritime logistics challenges may not be a purely military one but, rather, one pulled from the playbook used by ghost fleets, smugglers and other illicit networks. Mobility, sustainme...

'When traditional logistical routes are compromised or interdicted, ghost fleet operations could provide an indispensable lifeline for critical resupply, ensuring that forces can maintain their operational tempo and effectiveness,' writes Andrew Rolander.

Air-to-air shot a momentous step forward for the Ghost Bat | The Strategist Australia’s spending on the Boeing MQ-28A Ghost Bat collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) is set to soar to new heights after a successful test in which the fighter-like drone demonstrated its ability t...

'Australia’s spending on the Boeing MQ-28A Ghost Bat collaborative combat aircraft is set to soar to new heights after a successful test in which the fighter-like drone demonstrated its ability to shoot down an aerial target,' writes Malcolm Davis.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific: Partners for a resilient future | The Strategist In a world reshaped by geopolitical rivalry, economic volatility and an accelerating climate crisis, Europe and the Indo-Pacific have emerged with a new-found connection. We have discovered that rathe...

'Through the Global Gateway initiative, the EU is delivering sustainable, high-quality infrastructure with partners across the Indo-Pacific, leveraging public and private investment with high environmental and governance standards,' writes Gabriele Visentin.

NEW PODCAST 🎤

On the sidelines of #TSD2025, ASPI's David Wroe spoke with global AI safety expert Dr Roman Yampolskiy.

The pair discussed AI safety and risks, the recent Genesis Mission announcement out of the United States, and the opportunities that AI presents.

📺 Watch here ➡️ bit.ly/4rSpSPF

Putin’s India visit reveals New Delhi’s complicated strategy | The Strategist A major sore point in India’s relations with its Western partners is its continuing empathetic relations with Russia, especially since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. So there was co...

'The danger in such a strategy is that India will end up satisfying nobody. Russia may be irritated that India is not supporting it fully; others may consider that India has gone too far,' writes Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan.

Takaichi has a mandate to tackle hybrid threats. Australia offers her a model | The Strategist The Japanese public’s strong confidence in their new—and first female—prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, gives her government a window to strengthen Japan’s approach to hybrid threats. To do so, her gove...

'Like other democracies, Japan particularly grapples with disinformation during elections, when false narratives can influence voter behaviour,' writes Takahiko Kei.

We have not lost the geopolitical struggle, but we must work harder and together | The Strategist Don’t despair but don’t relax. It was a profoundly important message delivered last week by Australia’s director-general of national intelligence, Andrew Shearer. The placid period that followed the e...

'Don’t despair but don’t relax. It was a profoundly important message delivered last week by Australia’s director-general of national intelligence, Andrew Shearer,' writes Justin Bassi.

ADF autonomous warfare: go big, go fast | The Strategist The Australian Defence Force needs to expand and accelerate acquisition of autonomous equipment to achieve a rapid increase in force-structure numbers and capability. This is necessary to reinforce Au...

'The defensive battle cannot lag the offensive battle, and Australia needs greater investment in counter-drone capabilities. Defence should pay for systems that offer low cost per shot, such as directed-energy weapons and electromagnetic warfare,' writes Malcolm Davis.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

In ‘Aligning for advantage: Integrating autonomous systems into the Australian Defence Force’, Dr Malcolm Davis argues that Australia must invest in new robotic and autonomous systems to build urgently needed combat mass and resilience.

🔖 Read the report: bit.ly/4rFN8jw

AI in theatre: gaining decision advantage at machine tempo | The Strategist In modern operations against near-peer adversaries, time is a decisive variable. The side that can observe, orient, decide and act fastest, and with confidence, wins the initiative. Artificial intelli...

‘Adversaries are already exploiting that gap, pairing automation with disinformation and electronic warfare to accelerate reconnaissance, generate false targets and overwhelm human operators,’ writes Jason Van der Schyff.

Policy needs to keep pace with northern ambition | The Strategist Northern Australia is primed for growth. Businesses and communities are stepping up, investing in new capabilities and pursuing opportunities in such sectors as energy, defence, agriculture, aviation ...

'Northern Australia doesn’t need more statements about its potential. It needs funding programs that land, processes that move, and decisions that keep pace with the ambition already in motion,' writes Anna Alexander.

Opportunities and risks in Australia’s defence acquisition shake-up | The Strategist Amid delays and cost blowouts in Defence, the Australian government on 1 December announced a sweeping overhaul of Defence procurement with the creation of a Defence Delivery Agency (DDA). This will o...

'It’s not clear how this reorganisation will lead to Defence acquiring more capability, faster, at lower cost and at the same time be more responsive to rapid change in military technology and the threat environment,' writes Malcolm Davis.

Report: ‘AI safety’ needs to mean safety from authoritarian abuse | The Strategist ‘AI safety’ has become a buzz-phrase in Silicon Valley, where tech companies use it to refer to artificial intelligence systems that reflect human values and protect human well-being. AI chatbots that...

'Democratic governments should coordinate to establish global standards that ban undisclosed political censorship, prioritise open and inspectable AI systems and restrict the export of surveillance and opinion-shaping technologies,' write Bethany Allen, Nathan Attrill and Fergus Ryan.

The party’s AI: How China’s new AI systems are reshaping human rights - ASPI This report shows how the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming China’s state control system into a precision instrument for managing its population and targeting groups at home and abroad.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

In ‘The party’s AI,’ Fergus Ryan and Bethany Allen et al. reveal the rise of generative AI is transforming China’s state control system into a precision instrument for managing its population and targeting groups at home and abroad.

🔖 Read it here: bit.ly/4pFROnR

NEW TSD SPEAKERS 🔊

We're pleased to welcome Michael Biercuk, Dr Aruna Sathanapally, David Speers and 'Esau Lepa 'i Matangi Tupou to the Sydney Dialogue lineup!

🗓️ With only a few days to go until this year's event, be sure to secure your ticket before sales close 👉 bit.ly/4pdQxEO

Needed: massive computing power in the Northern Territory | The Strategist Australia lacks secure, onshore computing power capable of training defence algorithms, running classified simulations or supporting the advanced capability agenda under the AUKUS partnership. Address...

'High-performance computing at scale requires integrated power systems, specialised cooling plants, sovereign cyber architecture, trained personnel and robust data-sovereignty frameworks,' writes John Coyne.

ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker: 2025 updates and 10 new technologies | The Strategist ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker now covers global research efforts into 74 technologies, giving policymakers, industry and partners the clearest, most current picture of the tech race for strategic...

'Viewed as a bloc, the European Union remains a significant force, leading in high-impact research in four of the 74 technologies and breaking the US–China dominance,' write Jenny Wong-Leung, Stephan Robin and Linus Cohen.

🚨 NOW LIVE 🚨

ASPI's 2025 Critical Technology Tracker update has landed.

The Tech Tracker is the go-to resource for understanding how emerging technologies shape national security and economic advantage.

Explore new technologies, emerging trends and refreshed global datasets 👉 bit.ly/4pbjxx1

Generous account of our new @aspi-org.bsky.social @defenceaustralia.bsky.social report "Australian Public and Institutional Responses to Taiwan Strait Crises" from Paul Monk in The Australian, with important insights into facing realities of Beijing's threats against the Taiwanese.

Australia and EU strengthen critical-minerals engagement, but challenges lie ahead | The Strategist Australia and the European Union have established an impressive web of agreements and frameworks over the past two years to strengthen critical-minerals cooperation. Yet the ultimate test will be whet...

'Australia and the European Union have established an impressive web of agreements and frameworks over the past two years to strengthen critical-minerals cooperation,' writes Alice Wai.

What a tanker’s dash to Darwin says about our lamentable fuel security | The Strategist A tanker sprinting against the clock to beat a cyclone shouldn’t be a national-security storyline—but last week it became one. As Tropical Cyclone Fina tracked toward the Top End, port authorities exp...

'Fuel security is not an energy policy issue. It is a national security requirement. It underpins Defence readiness, food supply, transport, emergency response and economic stability,' writes John Coyne.

Fragmentation, distractions weaken Europe's Indo-Pacific pivot | The Strategist Although it has gained momentum over the past several years, Europe’s Indo-Pacific pivot risks stalling unless it overcomes internal fragmentation, manages strategic distractions and develops a cohere...

'Europe’s engagement in the region matters deeply, not only for its own interests, but also for the global balance of power amid strategic competition between the United States and China,' write Gabriele Abbondanza and Gorana Grgic.

🔔 NEW TSD SPEAKERS 🔔

We're pleased to announce that Hwang Sunghoon, Alexander Babuta and You-Hao Lai will join the speaker lineup at the Sydney Dialogue next week!

This year's event will tackle AI, cybersecurity, hybrid warfare, quantum and much more.

🎟️ Limited tickets remain: bit.ly/4oGwHSe

How business excellence can improve the public service | The Strategist For many public servants, the term ‘business excellence’ may sound like a corporate cliche, something best left to private-sector boardrooms and glossy management textbooks. But I’ve spent nearly a de...

'A focus on excellence would re-centre reform on measurable outcomes, continuous improvement and learning systems that make government smarter with every iteration,' writes John Coyne.

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨

ASPI's new compendium 'North of 26° south and the security of Australia: Views from The Strategist, Volume 12', examines key policy challenges facing the north and offers practical options to bolster security, economic prosperity and social development.

🔖: bit.ly/48pV1B1

Meet the NeoVark | The Strategist The United States and China are not the only ones who are designing great range into their upcoming combat aircraft. Britain, Italy and Japan have made the same decision. The US is developing the Nort...

'The United States and China are not the only ones who are designing great range into their upcoming combat aircraft. Britain, Italy and Japan have made the same decision,' writes Bill Sweetman.