Marion Crawshaw

All the Greenland discussion does give one pause for thought abt Cook Is & the vulnerability of resource-rich popn-poor islands, esp geographically isolated ones. Cld be a more useful exercise for our Nat sec agencies than endless fretting abt China.

Denmark's foreign minister eyes EU ties with CPTPP Trump's designs on Greenland 'out of the question,' Rasmussen says

More on EU/CPTPP cooperation, Denmark up for considering EU-CPTPP negotiations? "We realized that everything is up in the air these days, so we have to diversify our trade relations," Rasmussen said

asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Pic...

The history of MMP New Zealand’s first election was held in 1853. 37 MPs were elected to the House of Representatives using the First Past the Post (FPP) electoral system.

NZ changed from FPTP to MMP in 1990s. History & process in link below. Prob 2 key drivers - public unhappiness at way radical reforms pushed thru in 80s and reality that a no of govts were elected w/o majority of the total vote. elections.nz/democracy-in...

Review: Coming Multiplex World Order and Southeast Asia A new book forecasts the likely trajectory of global order and geopolitical and geoeconomic implications for Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region.

"Acharya deserves credit for imagining a future that extends beyond the binary sometimes advanced by officials in the West that if the United States doesn’t lead, either no one leads or one other single country (read China) will lead." www.aseanwonk.com/p/coming-mul...

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US stocks sink on tech weakness and tariff confusion Wall Street extends slide sparked by fears over economic impact of Donald Trump’s on-off trade war

"Investors are starting to think the US administration is losing control of the narrative"

US stocks sink despite tariff reprieve
www.ft.com/content/eb63...

Useful commentary from ASPI on NZ’s response to Kiribati/Cooks issues.

New Zealand’s trouble in paradise | The Strategist New Zealand is taking too hasty and too abrasive an approach to Pacific islands, putting leadership in the region on edge. We see this in a bungled attempt to visit Kiribati that led to a ...

'New Zealand is taking too hasty and too abrasive an approach to Pacific islands, putting leadership in the region on edge. We see this in a bungled attempt to visit Kiribati that led to a threat to withdraw aid and in a tense public stand-off with Cook Islands,' writes Blake Johnson.

This result also indicates that we need to be much more nimble.

On the face of it, the tilt last year twds trad partners & away from the even handed indept fp has placed us at huge risk w/both our major partners. Not the right time now for a public reassessment but internal reflections at least are reqd.

This time is different because the tariffs are on everything.

Flowering rata

Boardwalk on Campbell Is

View down Enderby Island (I think)

Nesting albatross

A diversion from the state of the world. A few pics of my Jan visit to NZ’s sub-Antarctic Islands.

How will Trump's US aid freeze affect the Pacific? A senior research fellow at the Development Policy Centre says the freeze is important because it raises the prospect of Washington stepping back from some key sectors.

TLDR: not that much. US aid to Pacific 6-7% of aid to the region & vast bulk of it is under Micronesian Compact States Agreements which are not caught by the freeze.
How will Trump's US aid freeze affect the Pacific www.rnz.co.nz/internationa...

Paywalled unfortunately but a NZ version of Temasek needs to get more attention, including detailed commentary on how it wld work.

Singapore has Temasek – Why not KiwiSec for New Zealand? - Matthew Hooton

The King of Tonga apears to be successfully rolling back the democratic reforms of 2010. Add this to turmoil in Samoan governance, constant changes in Vanuatu govts, & a fragile Fiji govt, not to mention the issues in Kanaky/New Caledonia. www.benarnews.org/english/comm...

Lots to discuss. Time to invigorate #CPTPP and move ahead more rapidly with deepening and accessions esp China (and Chinese Taipei). The times demand it, business requires it, the workd needs it! #Tradeworks

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Coalition govt likely in Vanuatu, where women struggle Vanuatu has just one female MP and seven women candidates among the 217 running for office in this...

update to this story: a fresh coalition looms with voters again spreading preferences widely. Gloria Julia King may lose her seat according to unofficial results in circulation. However, another woman may win: Marie Louise Milne in Port Vila.
www.canberratimes.com.au/story/886869...

Earthquake doesn't derail Vanuatu's snap election Vanuatu is set for its fifth prime minister in just over two years, as voting gets underway in...

An election day report - now the wait begins for results. Polling day has passed without reports of major incidents (so far) - a few grumbles about voting tweaks like needing ID & long lines. Which would be a triumph given the recent earthquake.
www.northweststar.com.au/story/886768...

Political crisis in Samoa.

Great to see @armbrusters.bsky.social on here. Another addition to the Bsky Pacific community.

Biden Will Deliver Final Foreign Policy Speech on Monday (Gift Article) The president argued in a speech that he strengthened U.S. alliances during his four years in office and that America’s adversaries are weaker than when he took over.

When even Biden has abandoned the “Indo-Pacific” terminology.
“Mr. Biden argued that he had turned around the rivalry with China, both by forging new partnerships in the Asian-Pacific region…”
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/13/u...

www.benarnews.org/english/news...

Constitutional Deadline Sparks Concerns - Tavuli News (Solomon Islands) Opposition raises concerns over the PM's decision to convene the Constituent Assembly a day before the constitutional deadline.

Solomon Islands Constituent Assembly to reconvene before the end of 2024 after a Bill to extend its deadline to debate and vote on a new Federal Constitution fails to pass parliament. Excellent reporting (with links!) by Georgina Kekea www.tavulinews.com.sb/opposition-c...

The bSky Pacific community is still pretty thin, but I’ve put together a list of acts here that have a Pacific focus or serious interest. Will continue to add to it
bsky.app/profile/did:...

Great job on reporting the earthquake in Vanuatu. (In my Pacific experience, trouble always hit just as I left town, rather than when my deputy was gone).

L’ambassade 🇺🇸 est aplatie. Nous avions 5 agents à l’intérieur, qui ont pu s’extraire in extremis. Avec les répliques, le bâtiment continue de bouger.

#Earthquake We no longer have an embassy, but this evening, with a dozen military personnel, we are preparing the residence: satellite connection, water, electricity, camp beds and so on. We're up and running again, and ready to help our fellow citizens and friends in Vanuatu.

5 dead Skuas sampled on James Ross Island, Antarctica, March 2024. All positive for 2.3.4.4 -confirming the first recorded HPAI-related mortality event in Antarctica (south of 60°S)
👉https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/veterinary-science/articles/10.3389/fvets.2024.1423404/full

Motion of No Confidence Against PM Manele Withdrawn - Tavuli News (Solomon Islands) The motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Manasseh Manele, introduced by Gordon Darcy Lilo was withdrawn.

www.tavulinews.com.sb/motion-withd...