Craig Renney

I’m delighted to announce I'm standing as the Labour candidate in Wellington Bays/Rongotai in 2026. I'm thrilled to fight for better jobs, housing, and health services in our community. Look in the bio to donate, volunteer, and help us deliver a better government next year.

#nzpol Standing with Firefighters who are fighting for better wages and equipment that works. It’s time to support them and keep New Zealanders safe

Today marks 15 years since the Pike River mine disaster. Anna and Sonya are meeting with Brooke van Velden today to call for stronger health and safety protections in our country, taking time out of the most precious day of their year to fight for all New Zealanders. #nzpol

#nzpol Tomorrow will mark the 15-year anniversary of the Pike River mine disaster which killed 29 workers, shocked the nation, and opened a conversation about our poor workplace health and safety record. A decade and a half later, we still haven't resolved that conversation. A🧵

#nzpol
The minimum wage increased by 1.5% this year. Data today from Stats NZ shows annual increases of:

- Food prices up 4.7%
- Fruit up 11%
- Beef up 17.4%, Lamb up 32.2%
- Bread up 11.4%
- Cheese up 14.8%
- Eggs up 16.2%
- Electricity up 11.8%

Laser-focused on the cost of living

#nzpol Good News Alert 🚨
ETU and @workersfirstunion.bsky.social won their case in the Supreme Court against Uber - meaning the court found some workers were employees rather than contractors.

Opening the door to more workers being able to claim their rights!

www.courtsofnz.govt.nz/assets/cases...

So while there is a tiny improvement in the data, we still have a record annual outflow of NZ Citizens for a September month. Young people are taking with them all the skills, talent, and investment we as New Zealanders have provided. Are we back on track yet?

Where are they going to? 58% of migrant departures of New Zealand citizens went to Australia. Going to a country with Fair Pay Agreements, a growing economy, low energy prices, and a capital gains taxation system. For some reason that doesn’t seem to so be unpopular.

The figures by age show a clear pattern. Departures of 15-29 year olds are up 24% since the election. Annually, 48,818 15-29 year old migrants left the country permanently in Sept 25. 134 a day. Around half of all total long-term migration from New Zealand are those aged 15-34.

That doesn’t incorporate GST receipts or other taxation – just PAYE. So the real figure is likely higher (around $340m a year or $1.4bn over 4 years). Given that OBEGALx is $214m in 28/29 that means that the promised surplus disappears without additional cuts or asset sales

In June 2025 net migration was 10,505 – against the Treasury forecast of 32,900 at Budget 25. That’s 22,719 fewer people being here. The working age population of that group is 18,402. Using the average wage creates a $250m a year tax loss – or $1bn across the forecast period

#nzpol Migration data from Stats NZ today with 72,700 New Zealand citizens leaving in the year to Sept 2025 – one every 7 minutes & 22 seconds. It’s improved marginally, but it's way behind where it should be on Treasury forecasts. That creates a $1bn tax gap against forecast. A 🧵

YouTube video by Big Hairy Network Ep27 Unemployment rate rises to 9 year high of 5.3%

#nzpol - In episode 27 of Locked Out with Craig Renney, we take a look at the recent Labour Market Data, and look at what’s happening with unemployment, underemployment, and wages. Who is losing, and is anyone winning right now? Hint - it's unlikely to be you.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0Ex...

Princess Bay

Nearly five thousand nights on this set of islands. Never gets old.

This government promised to get the economy back on track & tackle the cost of living. On both measures, it is failing. Working New Zealanders & their families are hurting – and the promised recovery keeps being pushed back. New Zealand needs a plan – not more promises of green shoots

Wages are falling behind the cost of living, and the government’s response is to cut the real value of the minimum wage, and ask essential workers like Doctors, Nurses, Teachers, & Fire Fighters to take another real pay cut. The Government is dangerously out of touch with the reality right now

This data should be a wake-up call for a complacent government that is doing nothing to alleviate the problems being faced by working New Zealanders. Ministers are removing benefits from 18- & 19-year-olds, at the same time as youth unemployment is ballooning

Unemployment in NZ is now well above the OECD average (4.9%), the UK (4.7%), Oz (4.3%), and the US (4.2%). There were 2.58 million fewer hours worked than 2 years ago, and 39,000 fewer people are in full-time work. 160,000 people unemployed – the highest number since March 1994

Wages increased at their lowest rate for 5 years, the Labour Cost Index showed wage inflation of 2.1% - well below CPI inflation of 3%. 44% of workers saw no pay increase and 68% saw a pay increase below inflation. Both public & private wages are growing at less than inflation

Unemployment is particularly acute for young people – with 15,500 more 15-24 year olds unemployed than at the election. Māori unemployment is 10.5%, Pasifika is 12.1%. A record 406,000 people are underutilised – meaning that they want more work or access to work but can’t get it

#nzpol Unemployment reached a 9 year of 5.3%. The labour market took another turn for the worse - unemployment growing, underemployment growing, fewer hours being worked, and wages are not keeping up with inflation. This data is another sign the economy is not working. A thread

Tomorrow we get labour market data. Expect some people to point to the job ad data as a sign that the 'worst is behind us'. It's not - not for the hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders needing work. We aren't 'back on track' and this data doesn't change that.

With 400,000 people wanting more work and not being able to get it - small shifts in job ads won't cut it. There are 36,309 more people on Jobseeker over the past two years (217,818 in Sep 2025), and the only plan is to take it away from 18/19 year olds.

To call it green shoots would be a mistake. It might better be described as bouncing on the bottom of the cliff. There are some other things we don't know:
- How many of the job ads are full-time?
- How many people are chasing each job?
- What is the pay for these jobs?
- How many jobs are needed?

Across all skills levels job ads are down across two years. But low/unskilled jobs have been hit particularly hard. How much this is due to changing employment patterns in the economy is unclear. The loss of highly skilled job ads might explain some of our migration issues

Across 10 jobs sectors measured by MBIE job ads are down across 2 years.
- Down 27% in construction
- Down 33% in health
- Down 31% in IT
- Down 35% in manufacturing
- Down 30% in sales

Even down 16% in primary industries

MBIE measures job ads across 10 regions. Across 2 years (Sept 2023) Job ads are down in every region.
- Down 34% in Auckland
- Down 35% in Wellington
- Down 32% in Manwatu/Whanganui
- Down 33% in Northland
- Down 26% in Waikato

Down everywhere

#nzpol On Morning Report today Ingrid said "Should we say green shoots?" in response to a tiny lift in MBIE job ads. Anything that shows a better labour market should be welcomed - but is that really what's going on? The honest answer is not really - job ads are down 30% in 2 years. A🧵

#nzpol Filled jobs out this week - and the number of filled jobs went up - Whoop! That's great news. Only 45,692 jobs to go until we are back to where we were at the election.

Something happened in November 2023, and jobs started to fall....

#nzpol The CTU is releasing the latest policy on its programme for the next election - a New Deal for Workers. Fair Pay Agreements. Preventing workers from being forced to be contractors, when they are really employees. Simplifying access to
Unions.

More at: union.org.nz/wp-content/u...