Craig Renney

Charm Skinner, who works for the Salvation Army, reminded us that “in all this data, these are the real lived experiences of whānau”. We have choices ahead at the next election, about how to tackle these problems. Recent decisions have taken us here. Let’s make better choices.

Drug consumption has rocketed over the past two years. Meth use has nearly doubled during that time. Support for people affected by drug abuse needs more support given this weight of consumption.

The number of households receiving transitional housing support fell last year. At the same time “A survey of local councils from Apr 2025 showed that all of the 18 respondents found that homelessness was either ‘slightly worse’ or ‘significantly worse’ than 12 months earlier.

The number of children living in poverty is growing and troublingly, the number of children living in material poverty has now reached 156,600. The number of children referred for possible child abuse or neglect requiring further action increased 13% this year to 44,532

On nearly every measure our measures of the labour market have fallen. The numbers of people needing help just getting the basics has increased. It’s getting harder - especially if you are poor - just to get by

#nzpol I’m here at the release of the Salvation Army State of the Nation for 2026. It’s a portrait of the problems facing Aotearoa, and how we are doing in tackling them. Many of the problems we face have worsened over the past two years. A 🧵

#nzpol Do you feel back on track yet?

If there is a recovery going on in the economy, it's not happening for working people. The cost of living is rising again. Work is harder to find. A tax cut doesn't help you if you don't have work. We need a real plan from the government, not another slogan.

There has been a fall in filled jobs in 11 of 16 sectors over the past two years. This includes manufacturing, construction, IT & telecoms, professional, scientific, technical & admin. Forestry & mining. Wholesale Trade. The fall in employment has been broad-based.

In the Wellington Region, the number of people who are unemployed has nearly doubled in just 2 years From 11,100 in Dec 2023 to 20,000 now. Wellington needs jobs urgently - yet there is nothing from the government to help turn this crisis around.

The highest number of people are in part-time work since 2017, and record numbers of people want more work but can't get it – a record going back to 2004. This hides the true unemployment rate. If you work 1 hour you aren’t unemployed. If you want more work – that doesn’t count.

Wages are continuing to fall behind inflation. 70% of workers got a pay rise less than inflation last year. 44% of workers got no pay rise at all - meaning a 3% real terms pay cut this year. Both public and private sectors saw real terms falls in the Labour Cost Index

The number of unemployed men and women rose in the last quarter, and 7,600 more 15-24-year-olds are unemployed than a year ago. With Waitangi just around the corner - Maori unemployment was 11.2% in December 2025 – more than twice the national average.

#nzpol New unemployment data from Stats NZ today, showing the impact of an economy that isn't working. An additional 5,000 people became unemployed during the quarter, rising to levels last seen in 2015. 164,000 people are now unemployed, up 39,000 in just 2 years. A🧵

This data shows once again the uneven choices getting "back on track". Tax cuts tilted to those with higher incomes and higher assets. Wages stalling, and higher price rises for the poorest. Everything we do in economics is a choice. Let’s choose better than this.

Treasury boss on bolstering the books in absence of high house prices and immigration Iain Rennie on where growth is coming from, and what he believes needs to change.

Pensioners face an even higher rate of inflation at 3.8% annual change. Maybe not the right time for Treasury to be examining whether to means-test the Winter Energy Payment, is it? www.nzherald.co.nz/business/eco...

With the minimum wage due to rise by less than inflation in April, those on the lowest incomes will be hammered for the third year in a row from this government. 68% of workers overall got a pay rise less than CPI inflation last year. Working people and their families are going backwards right now.

Household Living Price Index Annual Inflation

#nzpol Stats NZ has put Household Living Price Index data - showing how the cost of living is affecting different households. The cost of living has nearly stalled if you have a high income (1.2%). The poorest have a household inflation rate (3.4%) nearly 3 times the rate of the richest.

Sing it brother! For me - value for money is the key to ensuring that we can both have nice things and retain the social licence to invest. We desperately need better analysis of this in New Zealand. It’s a really important issue, and one that I’m personally passionate about.

Budget is on 28 May. If things get a tiny bit better, then it's only because in 2 short years, they got so much worse. Cuts to essential public services. Record out-migration of Kiwis. Failing child poverty. New Zealand can't afford more of this failed plan. Let's make this a one-term government.

2025/26 OBEGAL Deficit - TReasury Forecast

But as the Minister of Finance told us, we shouldn't take unemployment personally. So is it working for the Crown accounts? Er no - the OBEGAL deficit forecast for 25/26 has increased at every update. Turns out that totally unfunded tax cuts can be quite expensive!

Jobseeker number forecasts - NZ TReasury

Perhaps cutting & hoping that things get better really will work this time. Like it has for the forecast number of jobseekers - which has risen at every update since the election. 50,000 more between 2024 and 2026. The government's target is a reduction of 50,000 from 2023 levels

2026 GDP Forecasts - Treasury

#nzpol Today in FEC @barbedmonds.bsky.social asked MOF why GDP for 2026 keeps falling. The data from Treasury is clear - forecasts have fallen at every update year - down $14.4bn in just 2 years. Perhaps insanity really is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result

[I am reposting as I have fixed an error in processing the csv file (in turning dates in Jan and Oct from text to date where Excel truncated year.month x.10 to x.1)
Visualisation of how much bread the minimum wage can afford to buy, which is well below 2016 when National were last in government.

Workers need wage increases, not tax cuts for tobacco companies, landlords, and big businesses. The government should settle its pay disputes so that essential workers don't see their pay fall. If the economy is improving, but working people aren’t feeling any relief.

RBNZ had an annual inflation forecast at 2.7% this quarter, & Treasury forecast at 2.9%. This comfortably beat both estimates. The worry is that both RBNZ & TSY are basing their economic forecasts on big falls in inflation from here. There is little in this data to support that assumption

Electricity prices rose 12.2%, gas prices rose 16.2%. Food prices rose 4.3%, with meat prices up 8.2% and dairy and egg prices up 9.8%. Telecom services prices grew 7%. Overall inflation is helped by falling prices of audio-visual equipment (-18.5%) and games, toys and hobbies (-5.8%).

68% of workers across the economy are facing another year of real-terms pay cuts under this government. When last measured, annual household inflation was running 2.7 times faster for the lowest income New Zealanders than for the highest income earners

#nzpol Data released by Stats NZ today shows that the cost of living rose at its fastest rate for 18 months. Prices rose for 80% of items in the CPI basket, meaning growth in prices was broad-based. Minimum wage workers are now facing a 3rd year of real terms cuts in wages. A thread