Joyce Karam

From 'help is on the way' to nuclear talks, Iranians wary of Trump's shift After Trump repeatedly pledged to hold Tehran accountable for its protest crackdown, many Iranians are still waiting for him to make good on his promises.

NEW: From 'help is on the way' to nuclear talks, Iranians wary of Trump's shift

After Trump repeatedly pledged to hold Tehran accountable for its protest crackdown, many Iranians are still waiting for him to make good on his promises. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

China does not have enough leverage to handhold Iran into a deal but it has econ. & diplo. cards to play to incentivize/warn Tehran. After Venezuela, the cost of war in Iran is higher for China.
You can sign up to @AlMonitor China-Mideast briefing here www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/s...

Can China help Trump with Iran? As Iran’s top trade partner and key energy importer, China can quietly push Tehran toward a deal, especially if it hints that oil purchases or investment flows could be affected by escalations.

🗞️ NEW: #China emerging role in US-Iran talks

• Kazem Gharibabadi in Beijing
• Trump 📞 Xi
• Xi 📞 Putin
• China’s economic interests at stake. More in this week’s newsletter www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...

Washington Post cuts 30% of staff, guts foreign desk, Mideast team: What to know Foreign correspondents from the Post have extensively covered wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and other global conflict zones.

NEW: Washington Post cuts 30% of staff, guts foreign desk, Mideast team: What to know

Foreign correspondents from the Post have extensively covered wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and other global conflict zones. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

In last 2 hrs:
• Axios says Iran talks collapsing
• Israeli press confirms
• Trump says Khamenei 'should be worried'
• Witkoff still in region but returning to Miami instead of Oman on Friday

This is well played by regime in Iran so far:
'- Talks limited to US
- In Iran's preferred venue: Oman
- Topics, commitments TBD
- No strikes yet
- Impunity after crackdown on protests
- Trump toned down language

Despite US assurances, Israel fears being sidelined in partial Iran deal Israel is rattled by Oman as the new venue for the talks and fears that President Donald Trump could go for a partial nuclear deal or for an interim agreement that would buy the Iranians more time.

NEW: Israel fears being sidelined in partial Iran deal. Regional source told @al-monitor.bsky.social talks were moved from Turkey —where they'd been expected to include other Arab countries—to Oman at Iran’s request. Oman talks will now exclude Arab countries..More www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

“According to a regional diplomatic source, the proposed talks designed to begin with a de-escalation declaration rather than immediate bargaining ..Iran and US would issue a declaration stating that neither side intends to engage in hostile exchanges against the other..“

US, Iran weigh de-escalation declaration as first step of talks Behind the scenes, Iran and the United States are exploring a cautious diplomatic track centered on de-escalation rather than immediate concessions.

NEWS: US-Iran proposed talks

• Proposal to start with Declaration of De-escalation
• Iran showing flexibility on nuclear
• Ballistic Missiles discussions ‘limited’
• ‘Positive signs’ on regional proxies/influence. Report from Tehran www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

US F-35 downs Iran drone near aircraft carrier A US F-35 fighter jet launched from the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln shot down an approaching Iranian Shahed-139 drone on Tuesday – both run-ins between US vessels and Iranian naval forces came ahead…

🚨BREAKING: US F-35 downs Iran drone near aircraft carrier

www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

In parallel:
- US military/naval presence ramped up
- IRGC drills
- Centcom statements
- Explosions reported in Bandar Abbas and in Tehran. Regime said “gas leak” on first.

Trump could still go either way. But with diplomacy underway, many parties involved, no decision yet

Active diplomatic channels on #Iran

• Qatar PM in Tehran today, delivered US message. 2-hr visit

• Araghchi - Turkey: Thursday, Friday

• Larijani in Russia Friday, tweets today that negotiations are “progressing”

• MBZ in Russia Thursday

• Trump says ongoing talks

Venezuela scenario strikes again. Few issues:

• Regime in Iran complex, more rooted than Maduro’s
• Middle East far more complicated than Latin America, not in US backyard
• No political plan to replace Khamenei, Rubio’s answer today ‘no one knows’
• No regional appetite

Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire renewed protests, sources say By Samia Nakhoul, Humeyra Pamuk, Rami Ayyub and Parisa HafeziDUBAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and...

NEW: Trump weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces & leaders to inspire protesters + create conditions for "regime change".

Arab and Israeli officials have many questions… www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

‘Save the Post’: Washington Post journalists urge Bezos to protect foreign desk The Post maintains one of the most extensive overseas reporting networks among US newspapers, including Middle East bureaus in Istanbul, Cairo and Dubai.

Heartbreaking that Washington Post is weighing drastic cuts to its foreign coverage and staff. From Jerusalem to Baghdad, Kyiv and Gaza, colleagues at the Post put their lives on the line to get the story out. #SaveThePost www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

As Trump weighs Iran diplomacy, Israel uneasy but could accept deal Despite the United States deploying significant naval forces to the region, Israel regrets a strike against Iran was not carried out two weeks ago.

NEW: As Trump signals diplomacy on #Iran, Israel feels uneasy but can accept a deal…regrets strike window missed on Jan.13. Details: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Iran seizes on killing of Alex Pretti, accuses US of hypocrisy AI-generated photos showing Americans asking Iran's supreme leader for help and a wave of Arabic-language commentary are circulating on social following the killing of a protester by US federal agents...

Images of US authorities killing Alex Pretti in streets of Minneapolis reverberated across Middle East. For #Iran, it offered ammo to go after Trump, undercut criticism against Tehran in killing its own protesters…
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

At Davos, China capitalizes on Trump’s mistakes At Davos, China sought to position itself as a defender of multilateralism and free trade amid mounting criticism of US unilateralism. Middle Eastern governments watched on, looking to maintain a care...

NEW: At Davos, China capitalizes on Trump’s mistakes

China sought to position itself as a defender of multilateralism and free trade amid mounting criticism of the US. More in this week's China-Middle East NL from @joycekaram.bsky.social & @roscarroll.bsky.social: www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...

Syria’s Sharaa declares Kurdish a national language, recognizes Nowruz Syria's interim president surprised the country's Kurdish citizens with a decree enshrining their culture and language as an "inseparable component of Syria’s unified and diverse national identity."

NEWS: #Syria’s Sharaa declares Kurdish a national language, recognizes Nowruz www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

China breathes easier with Iran deescalation but challenges linger Beijing is relieved as signs emerge of deescalation between the United States and Iran, assuaging fears of a confrontation that could have disrupted Gulf stability and China’s energy supplies.

🗞️ NEW: Weakened Iran is setback for #China esp after Venezuela, but some silver linings

• Oil flowing (illegally)
• US moving 🚢 from Asia to Gulf
• US distracted in Middle East
• Khamenei more dependent on China ➡️ www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...

US pulls personnel from Qatar air base as India, Germany, others urge citizens to leave Iran Some US personnel have been advised to leave a major American air base in Qatar as the Trump administration weighs a response to the regime in Tehran for its deadly crackdown on nationwide protests.

UPDATE: Iran
• NO US carrier in Middle East yet
• Iran extends internet blackout
• Israel military ups readiness
• Lufthansa suspends ✈️to Israel
• Europeans see US attack likely, may be imminent www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/us...

US pulls personnel from Qatar air base as India, Germany, others urge citizens to leave Iran Some US personnel have been advised to leave a major American air base in Qatar as the Trump administration weighs a response to the regime in Tehran for its deadly crackdown on nationwide protests.

UPDATE: Iran
• US pulls personnel from Qatar base
• India, Germany, others tell citizens to leave Iran
• Turkey FM 📞 Iran again
• IRGC says ready for battle
• Sweden summons Iran envoy
• Iranians cross to Turkey www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/us...

Bruised, not broken: Iran’s regime shows no deep structural cracks — yet One of the clearest indicators of regime vulnerability — namely defections among the elite or military positions — has not materialized yet.

“The biggest issue confronting the Iranian regime is not simply what has happened, but what is coming next.” @al-monitor.bsky.social correspondent dispatch from Tehran: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Trump tells Iran protesters 'help is on the way' as Israel expects strikes US President Donald Trump vowed fresh support for protesters in Iran on Tuesday, promising that “help is on the way” and announcing he is cutting off high-level contacts with Tehran until the violent ...

#Iran Live Blog:
• Trump cuts talks: help on way
• Trump: allies "should get out"
• Israel expects strikes
• Death toll > 12,000: CBS
• Qatar 📞 Larijani
• Turkey FM 📞 Saudi FM www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/tr...

2 parallel paths: Diplomacy (a deal with US on nuclear file & missiles to avert strikes, spares regime); pressure in support of protests (cyberattack, strikes, sanctions, hits on Basij or IRGC, squeezes regime)

Iran protests: Almost 650 killed as Tehran summons EU ambassadors Iran summons European ambassadors over alleged support for protests, as unrest continues nationwide and Western leaders show solidarity with demonstrators.

UPDATE: #Iran

• Protests spread,~ 650 killed
• Lufthansa cancels ✈️ till 01/28
• France pulls non essential staff
• > 100 hrs of internet❌
• Araghchi 📞Witkoff, studying US proposal. Trump considers strikes
• Trump: 25% tariff anyone trading w Iran www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Multiple scenarios could unfold including US strikes, taking advantage of regime weaknesses and hitting its assets. Many rumors going around, hard to verify with internet blackout, few sources on ground

Escalation on Iran, Trump warnings

• Trump,Rubio,Hegseth voice support
• WSJ: US mulling aerial strikes
• Protests spread + riots
• Video surfacing of bodies in hospital
• Khamenei defiant
• Israel on alert
• Oman FM in Iran
• Comms blackout
• ✈️cancelations

Iran sees largest protest day as regime cuts internet: What to know Thousands of Iranians protested across the country on Thursday evening in one of the biggest challenges to Islamic Republic rule in decades.

UPDATE: #Iran Protests, Day 12
• Big protests in > 14 cities
• Police motorcycles, state buildings, IRGC banners torched
• Internet blackout: Netblocks
• Pro Shah chants
• Trump: “will hit very hard” if they kill protestors www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

“While Beijing was main backer of South Yemen after its 1967 independence, saw it as an important ideological and strategic partner during the Cold War, it’s a different calculus now. China’s priority is in maintaining big set of interests with Saudi & UAE while stabilizing Yemen”