Paul van Hooft

'Netanyahu, wetende dat de VS ondanks alles zal blijven steunen, doet wat hij wil, dat is bijzonder verontrustend',
@koertdebeuf.bsky.social in #buitenhof. @paulvanhooft.bsky.social van @randeurope.org waarschuwt: als op alle punten het systeem onder druk staat: 'op bepaalt moment stort het in'.

Buitenhof | NPO Start Programma waarin politiek en actualiteit besproken wordt in diepte-interviews, debatten of discussies. Met gezaghebbende gasten uit binnen- en buitenland, van politici en CEO’s tot originele denkers e...

Kijk #buitenhof in het teken van escalatie in het Midden-Oosten met correspondent Ralph Dekkers, dem. minister van Defensie @rubenbrekelmans.bsky.social, dem. minister van Financiën Eelco Heinen, hoogleraar @koertdebeuf.bsky.social @paulvanhooft.bsky.social @randeurope.org
npo.nl/start/serie/...

Buitenhof Buitenhof is het wekelijkse politieke discussieprogramma van VPRO, AVROTROS en BNNVARA met interviews, opinies en debatten.

Wat drijft Iran? Hoever gaat Israël? Welke rol speelt Amerika en wat kan Europa doen? Luister naar deze #buitenhof met correspondent Ralph Dekkers, dem. ministers Ruben Brekelmans en Eelco Heinen, hoogleraar @koertdebeuf.bsky.social en @paulvanhooft.bsky.social
➡ npo.nl/luister/podc...

Taking the Pulse: Can Europeans Build Their Independent Extended Nuclear Deterrent? Confronted with a U.S. disengagement and the Russian threat, Europeans are reconsidering their stance on nuclear deterrence. Given the capabilities of the French and British arsenals, can Europe devel...

If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Thanks, Jon, I appreciate it

Nuclear deterrence: can Britain and France take on America’s role in defending Europe against Russian aggression? For the foreseeable future a conventional approach to defence, perhaps backed by British and French nuclear assets, remains the most realistic option for Europe.

I wrote for @uk.theconversation.com on what French and British nuclear deterrents can mean for European deterrence, the need for increased intra-European coordination, and the role of advanced conventional weapons in raising costs for Russian aggression early on:
theconversation.com/nuclear-dete...

Vanwege grote onzekerheid over de eigen veiligheid, werkt Europa hard aan het versterken van de eigen defensie. En omdat ook aan de Amerikaanse nucleaire paraplu wordt getwijfeld, zijn kernwapens daarbij geen taboe.

Daarover @paulvanhooft.bsky.social en Tom Sauer.

Luister: bit.ly/m/Bureau-Bui...

Dringend gesucht: Eine europäische Verteidigungsstrategie.

Heute zusammen mit @paulvanhooft.bsky.social und @tobiaspfella.bsky.social in der @taz.de dazu. (1/3)
taz.de/!6072680/

Gesproken met @derk.cda.nl over het Franse kernwapen, de Russische dreiging, en wat Frankrijk en het VK kunnen doen om Europese afschrikking te versterken.

Opinie | Rusland moet snappen: escalatie zal kostbaar zijn Kernwapens: Nederland en andere Europese landen kunnen Frankrijk helpen zijn afschrikking te versterken, schrijft Paul van Hooft.

Deze week in @nrcnl.bsky.social geschreven over Franse/Britse kernwapens en afschrikking in Europa; hoe Nederland en andere bondgenoten die kunnen versterken dmv samenwerking met FR en investeringen in conventionele wapens voor strategie van ontzegging tov Rusland.
www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...

Op de Veiligheidsconferentie in München werd het opnieuw pijnlijk duidelijk: Europa moet op eigen benen gaan staan. Hoe? Luister de podcast met Haroon Sheikh en @paulvanhooft.bsky.social over de rol van Europa en de noodzaak tot meer defensiesamenwerking. 🎧 Luister hier: tinyurl.com/bdezduc6

... needed some generational change for a while.

US no longer ‘primarily focused’ on Europe’s security, says Pete Hegseth US defence secretary says Europe should lead in defending Ukraine and that restoring pre-2014 borders is unrealistic

SecDef: US no longer “primary guarantor of security in Europe” was predictable and reflection of realities of US priorities that have been shifting for decades. But frustrating because older generation of EUR/NL policymakers/"experts" refused to listen. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

98% of Italy's #ArmsImports come from the US.
The Netherlands: 99%
Denmark: 70%
Germany: 63%

A radical shift away from the US is unlikely as it would mean restructuring the entire market, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social 👉 www.sestry.eu/pl/artykuly/...

Following up on @hfayet.bsky.social @andrewfutter.bsky.social Ulrich Kuhn's Survival piece On France, UK, and Germany from last Fall, w/ Lukasz Kulesa en Kristin ven Bruusgaard we add Polish, Norwegian, and Dutch perspectives. 2/2

Forum: European Nuclear Deterrence and Donald Trump Despite Donald Trump’s return, complete US disengagement from Europe is not inevitable. America will continue to have strategic interests in Europe. Building a separate European nuclear deterrent i...

Out in Survival: my contribution to debate on European nuclear deterrence after Trump, including discussion of French and UK alternative arrangements and what is needed for those to work (or "work"). 1/2

www.tandfonline.com/eprint/DYJST...

We believe this has clear implications for access to real-time intelligence for long-range precision strike, which is a central concept in the Western way of war. 3/3

In the article, we argue that despite lowering launch-costs leading to proliferation of smaller satellites, both kinetic and non-kinetic means to attack or temporarily dazzle satellites still give an edge to the attacker. 2/3

Anti-satellite warfare, proliferated satellites, and the future of space-based military surveillance Will proliferated satellites enable a transparent battlefield in a way that might transform continental warfare? Many now think so. We argue, however, that anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities will l...

Though online already last summer, the Journal of Strategic Studies published the article, co-authored with Ivan Oehlrich and Stephen Biddle, on anti-satellite warfare and the consequences for real-time military surveillance. 1/3
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Great opportunity for any students, researchers, or early-mid career practioners to think and discuss ongoing issues of arms control, deterrence, and technology. Thank you for the invitation Francesca Giovannini Steven Miller and Carlo Schaerf! 2/

A little late, but I tremendously enjoyed again being given the opportunity to lecture on NATO and extended nuclear deterrence with the new US administration at ISODARCO - International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts in the lovely mountains. /1

European Deterrence and the Changing U.S. Strategy | StrategicALLY

Enjoyed talking in the Finabel podcast about European defence and deterrence, as well as Ukraine war, in light of the changing US-European relationship: shows.acast.com/strategicall...

Opinie | Europa zal nu merken wat het echt kost om de veiligheid op orde te krijgen Defensie: Europa is voor zijn verdediging meer op zichzelf aangewezen, ongeacht wie president van de VS is, zegt Paul van Hooft. En dat vergt serieuze investeringen, ook organisatorisch, in nucleaire ...

In @nrc.nl betoog ik dat blind vertrouwen in de VS altijd cruciale zwakte was voor Europese veiligheid. Daarom moet nu zsm geinvesteerd worden in conventionele afschrikking en moet Franse en Britse nucleaire afschrikking een grotere rol krijgen in Europese orde: www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2024/...

Questions that should impact Dutch policy as the Dutch navy (with the Tromp) again travel through the Indo-Pacific in 2024. 12/12. marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Tromp...

Leads to a series of questions on which regional partners European states can best collaborate and with on which policies areas outside of purely naval powers. 11/ hcss.nl/report/guard...

As we argue (w/ Tim Sweijs), small and middle powers in both the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific share a view of a multilateral maritime order that maintains the freedom of the seas and stability; one that goes further than the Sino-American rivalry. 10/ hcss.nl/report/why-s...

Where we (w/ Benedetta Girardi) highlight the valuechain as it passes through maritime chokepoints, to underline why both European states and their Indo-Pacific partners should join efforts to guard the commons that connect their regions: 9/ hcss.nl/report/what-...

The study for the Royal Netherlands Navy builds on other Hague Centre for Strategic studies work on the European role in the Indo-Pacific: 8/ hcss.nl/europe-in-th...

There is thus a need for the NL navy (and other EUR navies) to expand naval capabilities to protect these seas, which is a matter of both building ships and attracting and keeping talented personnel. 7/