Paul Cormarie

An overview of how the new EU-Canada SDP fits in with sister agts: a mix of UK/Nor and Japan/ROK

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic142
Full text synopsis: bit.ly/EUSDPs
@ukandeu.bsky.social

Good morning.

With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group.

A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.

These are Britain’s options for tactical nuclear weapons. We must choose, and act What weapon is not as important as whether there is one

"It isn’t very important which tactical nuclear option we choose – F-35A, a French style standoff weapon, or Tomahawk. What is important is that we choose at least one and get it into service."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...

MoD plans huge £2.9bn sensor support contract with Thales UK The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines.

The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-plans-hu...

Everything Changes but Nothing Changes: Can France Overcome its Own Nuclear Doctrine? - War on the Rocks In a recent interview broadcast live on French television, President Emmanuel Macron declared: Ever since there has been a nuclear doctrine since Charles

@floriangalleri.bsky.social and my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We argue that the French nuclear doctrine is at a crossroads: ambiguity, sufficiency, final warning and other concepts should be debated for a bigger French role in European deterrence warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...

🏆 To celebrate the arrival of my "Littoral Commander: Baltics" #wargame, I am going to give away a signed copy of the game. Like, repost, and follow by April 8 (midnight EST)! May the odds be ever in your favor. 😉🎲 #wargaming

The UK’s nuclear deterrent relies on US support – but there are no other easy alternatives Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.

Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going it alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.

☢️ In a new European survey, more than 60 percent of respondents agree that “France's nuclear deterrent must be extended to all members of the European Union”

#nukesky

legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...

🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen unveils the "Rearm Europe Plan" to mobilise up to €800 billion in defence investment across the bloc.

"We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament."

"This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."

Yes. As a ballpark figure, it makes sense: to the 2% baseline add 0.5% to replace US stopping aid to Ukraine, another 0.5% to reach NATO capability goals with USA still in Europe, and 0.5%-plus to do same after Americans leave. Hence a 3.5% goal pushing towards 4%

Ok RAND needs a cat distro

Happy Caturday

That’s only if the forces are in France. Otherwise it’s sparkling deterrence

Quite a big deal from NATO’s official contrarian:

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: “We are in favor of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. This was the statement from our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, so this is our official position.”

I had a shower thought yesterday that this looked like “populist peace theory” (if such a thing exists), which seems to sort of look like what you’re describing

See my latest for @lawfare.bsky.social !

My grand father was in the resistance. Apparently he thought that the father le pen was “too on the left” for him. Never met the guy

Une première participation et de façon régulière au sein l’exercice Poker serait déjà une première étape logique

The nuke-vibe shift is here

Maybe we finally get that “strategic dialogue” proposed by France at the public level

Europe should brace for Trump to end NATO protection, Germany’s Merz warns Merz said there was need to discuss Germany coming under British and French nuclear protection.

“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us”
www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Forsvarsministre signaliserer sterk Nato-allianse: – Vi er på vakt, vi trygger Norge Norge og Storbritannia søker til hverandre når verdensbildet blir mer ustabilt.

Norway and the UK are working on a new defense agreement, to enhance strategic cooperation, more joint training and exercises, and further enhanced intelligence cooperation.

The Norwegian Defence Minister calls the new agreement ambitious.

www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...

Europe not on the table, but on the menu

100% agree. Regular Europeans don’t watch the MSC (let alone know about it). French media I’m following did not even report on the speech. NYT already just released an article about it. The difference speaks volumes

Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.

Starmer summons UK defence chiefs in tussle over spending Trump is pushing European governments to commit much higher funding to armed forces

'“The [UK defence] chiefs want a budget of 2.65 per cent of GDP but the Treasury is adamant that they should work to 2.3 per cent.” A second official confirmed the gap between the two sides, which amounts to about £10bn a year.' www.ft.com/content/fc9d...

Hegseth rules out NATO membership for Ukraine and says Europe must be responsible for country’s security | CNN Politics US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the war between Ukraine and Russia “must end,” that Kyiv joining NATO is unrealistic, and that the US will no longer prioritize European and...

Moving the goalposts confirmed: “Hegseth also echoed calls by President Donald Trump for allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, instead of 2%, saying the latter is “not enough.”” amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/02/...

Great presentation John! And excellent topic 😁

Couldn’t agree with you more. 🇬🇧 seems to also go toward the US anyways (AUKUS pillar 2 is too big to fail). Maybe the 🇩🇪 election results will be the opportunity to spur that EU level cooperation? I’m an optimist 😬