Moritz Kraemer

Rt measures how quickly a pathogen spreads and was central to understanding and controlling COVID-19. In our latest work, we extend this concept to vector-borne diseases, developing a new, renewal equation–based framework that links infection dynamics in humans and vectors.
doi.org/10.1111/2041...

From January to 8 October 2025, France (n = 700) and Italy (n = 353) have reported CHIKV cases widely across their territories. The increase in clusters coincides with global outbreaks and temperature anomalies in Europe.

Active clusters shown here:
gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...

The role of climate variability in shaping the 2023/24 outbreak of Dengue in Brazil (📉 in north regions; 📈 in southern populous regions).

Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Chikungunya, continuano i prelievi ad accesso libero a Carpi, oltre 140 le persone che si sono presentate per effettuare il test - AUSL Modena Sui casi complessivi, l’80% non è più considerato a rischio trasmissione del virus. Sui social dell’Ausl di Modena un video dedicato all’uso corretto dei repellenti, come sceglierli e applicarli anche...

Chikungunya outbreak in northern Italy (Modena, Carpi, San Prospero, Concordia sulla Secchia, and Soliera) with over 104 detected and confirmed autochthonous transmissions: www.ausl.mo.it/chikungunya-...

382 locally acquired cases of chikungunya in France in 2025 alone. Total of just under 1000 imported cases from outbreaks abroad.

www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-...

Mosquito-borne viruses surge in a warming Europe Chikungunya cases break records in France; West Nile virus appears near Rome

Mosquito-borne viruses surge in a warming Europe

www.science.org/content/arti...

The 16th Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Bulape Health Zone, Kasai, Democratic Republic of the Congo: A new spillover event from an unknown reservoir host Background The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is currently facing concurrent outbreaks including mpox, cholera and malaria (1-4). The Ministry of Public Health, DRC has declared the 16th Ebola...

Sequence data from the new Ebola outbreak in DRC suggests it is indeed a new spillover.

And just incredible to see the virus sequenced and the data publicly shared less than 24 hours after confirmation of the outbreak.
#IDsky 🧪

virological.org/t/the-16th-e...

Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity Waning immunity to Japanese encephalitis virus was associated with increased severity of dengue disease in a cohort of patients from Nepal.

Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

The 16th Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Bulape Health Zone, Kasai, Democratic Republic of the Congo: A new spillover event from an unknown reservoir host Background The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is currently facing concurrent outbreaks including mpox, cholera and malaria (1-4). The Ministry of Public Health, DRC has declared the 16th Ebola...

Likely a new spillover causing the Ebola outbreak in the DRC: virological.org/t/the-16th-e...

Climate-sensitive disease data integration has been challenging due to variations in spatial & temporal resolution of inputs as well as multi-modality (satellite imagery, tabular, genomic..). We built a tool to makes it easier to perform data integration: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

A systematic nomenclature for mpox viruses causing outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Confermato un caso probabilmente autoctono di chikungunya A Castel San Giovanni, in località Pievetta. Le misure adottate per prevenire la diffusione

Probable autochthonous case of chikungunya reported in northern Italy: www.ausl.pc.it/it/comunicaz...

Now peer-reviewed and approved.

BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference - Nature Methods BEAST X advances Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic analysis by incorporating a broad range of complex models and leveraging advanced algorithms and techniques to boost statistica...

BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

So proud of Dr. Joseph Tsui, whom I had the great pleasure of co-advising with Oliver Pybus, for finishing his DPhil yesterday.

Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution).

Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI

Congratulations, Samuel! They are so lucky to have you.

Phylogenetic insights into the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne viruses - Nature Reviews Genetics Arthropod-borne viruses have a substantial impact on global health, with climate change and urbanization exacerbating their emergence. Integrating genomic surveillance and phylogenetic models with eco...

Phylogenetic insights into the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne viruses

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Great work by Verity Hill and team

Write-up of our open-source software tool, Grapevne, enabling rapid construction of multi-data type workflows for enhanced pandemic preparedness.

It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern.

wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US - Nature Communications Leveraging genomic and epidemiological surveillance data, the authors show that flu epidemics in the US arise from independent outbreaks in different states that spread from state to state through com...

Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Chikungunya virus and other emerging arthritogenic alphaviruses - Nature Reviews Microbiology In this Review, Weaver and colleagues discuss the transmission cycles of arthritogenic alphaviruses, their vectors, epidemiology, transmission dynamics, evolution, pathophysiology and immune responses...

Fantastic overview of Chikungunya virus and other emerging arthritogenic alphaviruses

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Panel Discussion: 'What turns spillovers into epidemics?' This talk brings together experts in pathogen genomics, virology, ecology, climate science, and data science to explore how AI, genomic surveillance, and…

Really looking forward to this event @oxmartinschool.bsky.social on what turns spillovers into epidemics/pandemics in human populations: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-... with exciting speakers.

Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social

What turns a virus spillover into an epidemic? 🌍🦠
Join leading experts to explore how AI, genomics & ecology shape epidemic forecasting.

📍Oxford Martin School & Online
⏰ May 19 5–6:15pm

Register here: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-turns-spillovers-into-epidemics

Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research - Nature The proliferation of artificial intelligence tools in scientific research risks creating illusions of understanding, where scientists believe they understand more about the world than they actual...

Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Mosquito-borne viral disease sweeping Indian Ocean islands Safety issues with the only available vaccine complicates response to chikungunya

Mosquito-borne viral disease sweeping Indian Ocean islands

www.science.org/content/arti...

MSCA opens €404.3 million call for Postdoctoral Fellowships Postdoctoral Fellowships offer researchers holding a PhD the opportunity to acquire new skills through advanced training and international, interdisciplinary, and inter-sectoral mobility.

Excellent opportunity for young researchers to gain skills and start their independent careers.

marie-sklodowska-curie-actions.ec.europa.eu/news/msca-op...

Europe’s choice is clear.

To put science at the heart of its economy.

To become the home of scientific freedom and collaboration.

And to welcome talent from all over the world.

I’m glad to present the first elements of our Choose Europe Initiative.

→ europa.eu/!TTbWbJ

Panel Discussion: 'What turns spillovers into epidemics?' This talk brings together experts in pathogen genomics, virology, ecology, climate science, and data science to explore how AI, genomic surveillance, and…

Really looking forward to this event @oxmartinschool.bsky.social on what turns spillovers into epidemics/pandemics in human populations: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-... with exciting speakers.

Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social

Convergence and consensus In these days of political instability, geopolitical tensions, and social discontent around the world, there are continued threats to the principles, conduct, and findings of science. This assault on ...

Convergence and consensus

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Why an overreliance on AI-driven modelling is bad for science Without clear protocols to catch errors, artificial intelligence’s growing role in science could do more harm than good.

Why an overreliance on AI-driven modelling can be bad for science.

Some good thoughts in here about the distinction between engineering and the natural sciences.

www.nature.com/articles/d41...

The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China Mobile phone data show that the spread of COVID-19 in China was driven by travel and mitigated substantially by local control measures.

Five years ago @scarpino.bsky.social

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...