fplsopho

EV gain on T100k vs actual outcome GW23-29 per @FPLOptimized

23: +2.71 vs -8.11
24: +7.22 vs -3.42
25: +10.34 vs -0.91
26: +8.36 vs -30.95
27: -0.98 vs -4.53
28: +1.35 vs -2.60
29: +3.25 vs -16.05

Total. 32.25 vs -66.57. Almost (100) in 8GWs.

Rank: 111k - 357k.

Just utterly horrific…

GW29. Great EV, another 100k red arrow. Deeply unserious game. #FPL

No intention of 30, likely 31

GW29. As planned, TAA + Salah + Ndiaye -> Gvardiol + Øde + Haaland with 3/4FTs/0.0 ITB.

The TAA injury cemented this line I’ve had planned for over a week.

Zero doubt or hesitation on flipping the premiums. The time to grab all available EV and risk is *now*. 257k 🌎 #FPL

Looks like WC30/31 TC32 will work quite well for Isak. I used mine earlier in the season.

Will have a look after this weeks FAC results but a vanilla WC30/31/32 BB33 FH34 looks like the most likely

Another poor week and red arrow.

A good reminder recently of how silly this game is. Having rolled to 5FTs and then grabbed a truck of EV doing Emery, Sarr, Rogers, Bruno -> Arteta, Semenyo, Dango, Trossard across 25-26, I am currently 49 points down from those FTs. #FPL

GW27 - roll 2 FTs with 3.1m ITB.

Whilst tempting to grab some dopamine/EV (e.g. Cunha/Bowen), particularly after my biggest negvar GW all time, I think this is strong enough to roll with most teams playing 2x ahead of GW28/BGW29 and so many options. Very easy captaincy.

#FPL

Absolutely gutted for you considering where you started. You’ll come back strong!

GW26 - 56 points and a big red from 112k to 230k.

No regrets having grabbed:

-0.8 EV on Arteta over Glasner
~0.3 EV benching Munoz.
~0.1 EV captaining Trossard over Mo…

…and losing 44 points from it.

Got screwed benching JP/buying Dango by information withheld. #FPL

GW26. Rogers and Emery -> Dango and Arteta and roll a FT.

A number of potential options of when and how to remove Ndiaye/Rogers and struggled to feel any conviction on any of them.

Trossard C for some EV+ risk against the field. Need a big week this week. 112k 🌎 #FPL

GW25. 98 points. 127k - 112k.

Small gains relative to expectation 🫤

Plenty to ponder going into this week. I need to do something with 2xFT available after AM transfer to move on Rogers/Ndiaye but waiting for info feels critical given planning to delay FH until 34.

#FPL

Goes to show how easy it is to overfocus on the company we keep. Incredible stuff

GW25 - 3/5FTs used for Moyes, Sarr and Bruno -> Emery, Semenyo and Trossard.

Just about landed on the conservative line of keeping Isak over grabbing Watkins.

#FPL

GW24. Eze -> Rogers and David Moyes (1/5FT). 135k 🌎

Tight on the buy between Rogers or BOU MID. I think on balance Rogers is slightly EV- but sided with an extra week of info to decide which BOU MID (ie chip strategy) and a cheaper expected purchase price on Rogers. #FPL

GW23. 57 pts. 111k - 135k.

All my shields did points and my swords did not (bar the three on the bench).

Annus horribilis.

Now to decide whether to move Sarr onto a Bournemouth MID or have a one week flirt with an Everton MID. Tough call whether to go tomorrow or wait.

#FPL

GW23. Roll all four FTs before deciding whether to add a sixth DGW24 asset next week. Team good but so are rank exposures.

111k 🌎

#FPL

GW22 - 60. 159k - 111k.

LIV finally cleaned and Ndiaye did a goal 🎉 (Wood 😴)

Critics of analytics will say models lead to boring and homogenous play but he’s 0.0% owned in the field and had 0 ownership in the E1k until GW20 ✅

Plan to roll in 23 to 5FTs, DCL GW24

#FPL

GW22. Roll all 3 FTs as I bring a pen to this sword fight against Chris Wood.

A few injury niggles prompted me to shift the armband and promote Ndiaye into the XI again. He’s playing more than I hoped he would but that’s why I like eight attacker structures.

160k 🌎 #FPL

GW21. 67 points. 143k-159k.

Another really poor week with a red arrow in 21 and now an aggregate
red arrow in the three weeks post WC.

This week is the easiest roll of all time, hope to get luckier soon.

PS thank you to a good friend for the +1 from Ndiaye over JP. #FPL

Awesome let’s stay in touch for the future

GW21. Øde to Bruno and roll the other 2 FTs. Thin move but Semenyo EV boost and delay in McNeil RTP means I think I’ll save a FT in the plan.

Big blunder trusting the buffer on a potential Øde price drop last night which I’m really frustrated with myself about.

143k 🌎 #FPL

GW20 - 59 points and a red from 105k to 143k.

Now shipped north of 30 pts from WC19 but we’ve seen it all before.

Øde to Bruno tempts a bit but more likely to keep rolling all the way to GW23. Enjoy the week off and we’ll come back and begin planning a chip strategy. #FPL

Good time to take week or so off after WC stress and start the year well in other areas ✌️

GW20. Roll both FTs 🦦.

Team/EV pretty average but the juice will come GW24-29. The way this normally goes is the first sub will wipe the starting defenders clean.

105k 🌎

#FPL

GW19 - 89 points. 150k-105k.

Always disappointing to wildcard out some points first up (5) but a green is a green and 105k at the half way stage (TC used) is satisfactory.

I plan to roll this all the way to 5FT in GW23 and only injuries/red cards can change this 🦦

#FPL

Is he?

Yep - probably the best pick in the entire game

WC19.

Learn as if you will live forever, live like you will die tomorrow.

Very happy with this with the DGW/BGW ahead of us.

Key decision ended up being Gabriel or not and landed just about on the former. Sarr over Semenyo is slightly greedy.

2FT, 0.0ITB, 150k 🌎

#FPL

GW18. 63 and a red arrow from 142k to 150k.

Flekken injury and Gabriel sitter cost me about 15 points on the field tonight 😢

Into WC19 we go, which essentially consists of picking a budget mid, some defs and Alisson with one eye on DGW24/25 & BGW29. Wanted more chaos.

#FPL