The Two Sides of Inflation in an Emerging Market: Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #QuantLinkADay
The Practice of U.S. Monetary Policy Independence from Martin to Greenspan www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... #QuantLinkADay
Beyond Polarity: Multi-Dimensional LLM Sentiment Signals for WTI Crude Oil Futures Return Prediction arxiv.org/abs/2603.11408 #QuantLinkADay
On the Wisdom of Crowds (of Economists) www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp... #QuantLinkADay
They should have put burgers on the banknotes IMO
They should have put burgers on the banknotes IMO
What about next month? Given the energy shock (which occurred just after the reference period for this release), it seems fairly likely that Mar's headline print could push higher. 4/n
OER, utility piped gas service and gasoline were the largest upside contributors. On the downside, were components around telephones, electricity and used cars. 3/n
What were the biggest contributors at a much more granular level, and how did they differ in Feb vs Jan? We can decompose US CPI by item strata components, which are around 200, and take the top/bottom 15. 2/n
US CPI was just released, with the widely watched core CPI MoM SA measure coming in at 0.22%, 1 basis point above our Turnleaf Analytics estimate of 0.21% and headline was 0.27%. Here we show contributions by major group. 1/n
Pandemic-era inflation dynamics in the euro area: the role of policy and non-policy demand and energy and non-energy supply factors www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw... #QuantLinkADay
Constructing a Portfolio Optimization Benchmark Framework for Evaluating Large Language Models arxiv.org/abs/2603.09301 #QuantLinkADay
Data center boom expected to raise electricity component of PCE inflation www.dallasfed.org/research/eco... #QuantLinkADay
Stock Market Prediction Using Node Transformer Architecture Integrated with BERT Sentiment Analysis arxiv.org/abs/2603.05917 #QuantLinkADay
Residual Seasonality in Some Components of PCE Inflation www.clevelandfed.org/publications... #QuantLinkADay
A robust approach to tilting: parametric relative entropy www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw... #QuantLinkADay
That is the only way!
Stablecoins and monetary policy transmission www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw... #QuantLinkADay
More than one is Diceaspora
Deep Learning for Financial Time Series: A Large-Scale Benchmark of Risk-Adjusted Performance arxiv.org/abs/2603.01820 #QuantLinkADay
The pharmacies are sometimes very big in Europe.
Toward Expert Investment Teams:A Multi-Agent LLM System with Fine-Grained Trading Tasks arxiv.org/abs/2602.23330 #QuantLinkADay
Can satellites predict oil demand? www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw... #QuantLinkADay
TradeFM: A Generative Foundation Model for Trade-flow and Market Microstructure arxiv.org/abs/2602.23784 #QuantLinkADay
20:57
Roughly speaking we see that as Brent prices rose around $10 during the conflict, this was accompanied by a 30-40bp move upwards in the US CPI YoY NSA forecast curve. After the war, the forecast curve reverted and we can see that ittracked the subsequent path of realised US CPI relatively well. 5/n
Energy is a large part of the inflation basket, but it can also have knock on effects into other components. Conflict can also directly impact other components like airline fares, both through kerosene costs, but also directly, given there can be pent up demand once flights reopen. 4/n
We've created a event study visualisation below looking at how rises in the crude price during the previous war impacted our Turnleaf Analytics daily US CPI forecast last year. 3/n
We had the Twelve-Day war last year between 13-24 June. Of course it is impossible to be predict precisely how long this war will start. One thing we can try to do is to understand the market reaction is through the prism of last year's war. 2/n
First off, I want wish everyone in the Middle East to be safe at this challenging time, and I hope that the peace comes quickly. 1/n
