Amni Rusli

adventofchess.com/year/2025/da...

Mood 🥰

I shall bury the wounded like pupas,
I shall count and bury the dead.
Let their souls writhe in like dew,
Incense in my track.

The carriages rock, they are cradles.
And I, stepping from this skin
Of old bandages, boredoms, old faces

Step up to you from the black car of Lethe,
Pure as a baby.

The Quiet Surrender of Fed Independence When I began writing this Substack, I knew that I would include a post on central bank independence.

New Post: The Quiet Surrender of Fed Independence #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/eightate...

“it’s difficult to imagine that someone who often appears on TV praising a fiscal policymaker would turn out to be a truly independent monetary policymaker”

Awesome weekend read here on Fed independence. The infographic of events and comments great too.

The Quiet Surrender of Fed Independence When I began writing this Substack, I knew that I would include a post on central bank independence.

New Post: The Quiet Surrender of Fed Independence #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/eightate...

Things that will interest Bluesky; Misha Glenny, author of McMafia, replaces Melvyn Bragg as host of In Our Time.

An issue we're seeing at all levels of university is that many students are simply refusing to do *anything*. They aren't reading the syllabus, aren't following assignment guidelines, aren't engaging with material, ignoring deadlines. And this might seem like old news, but it truly has ramped up.

🧵 #EconSky

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Summary

Goodhart

The Rejection of the Classical “Money Multiplier” in the Context of the US Banking System

(2/2)

Money, Credit and Crises, N Michail, (1/2)

The Role of Government Bond Purchases in the US Banking System

Liquidity Abundance in the US Banking System

www.dallasfed.org/news/speeche...

Deposit Flight in the US Banking System

The Distinction Between Deposits (Money) and Liquidity in the US Banking System

How US Banks Fund Themselves and Other Things #EconSky

Impulses that could raise or lower 2026 inflation and unemployment

The fog is gone

#EconSky 🧵

#EconSky 🧵

other, nullifying the positive or negative effects.

In terms of monetary policy that is dependent on data, this kind of ebb and flow, plus the consideration of lags, makes life difficult for the Fed, even those with a rate-cutting bias.

unorthodox governance. The point of the whole story though, is not about the accuracy of the prediction, but rather to show the ebb and flow of the effects of fiscal and monetary policymakers, the lags with which they take effect, and how during some periods they may counter each

see negative impulses from fiscal policy and immigration effects without a countering positive impulse from financial conditions. Having said that, the resulting negative impact from all the sources may be small. Hopefully, the resilience of the US economy may see us through this era of

combined positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal policy, tapering lower towards the end of 2026. So much so that these combined may not be able to counter the negative impulses from tariff and immigration effects.

From 2027 onwards, we might