Amni Rusli

Ireland awakens to the risk of relying on US investment The country is one of the most exposed in Europe to Trump’s tariffs, intensifying fears that a golden era of growth will slow down

on.ft.com/45sgw3H Ireland awakens to the risk of relying on US investment

#EconSky Bill Nelson

#EconSky

Should we be alarmed or optimistic about Japan’s debt? The return of inflation has brought the public finances back under control

on.ft.com/4fjSueQ Should we be alarmed or optimistic about Japan’s debt?

China struggles to break its addiction to manufacturing Local governments are steering investment into new factories, adding to overcapacity and eroding profit margins

on.ft.com/3H5Li9j China struggles to break its addiction to manufacturing

US and EU reach tariff agreement to avert trade war Deal follows Scotland talks between Donald Trump and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen

What a deal!
The EU has "agreed to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on additional US energy products and weapons, in exchange for the broad 15 per cent levy that covers many European exports including cars."
Not a misprint. Unthinkable during my lifetime. But this is 2025.
on.ft.com/4onuknM
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Amazing water show right by the lake, the last one of the year 🥰

What is normal when you’re normalising A brief run-through of the Fed balance sheet

On the Fed’s balance sheet: This article covers a bit of the history of balance sheet policy, the normalisation process including “ample reserve”, the safety mechanisms when it comes to liquidity and the limits of balance sheet policy eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-is-no...

The Fed and the Phillips Curve Fighting the last inflation battle (for now)

On the Phillips curve: eightateeight.substack.com/p/the-fed-an...

Terms of Endearment The Term Premium and The Long Rate

On the term premium and the long rate: This article explains the term premium and the neutral short-term real interest rate eightateeight.substack.com/p/terms-of-e...

Let’s Revise On lags and stronger-than-expected growth

On policy lags: This article covers overheating in the economy, monetary policy lags and what is restrictive policy eightateeight.substack.com/p/lets-revise

Inversion diversions All about the inverted yield curve

inversions and the Fed’s actions in response and how to interpret inverted yield curves in context open.substack.com/pub/eightate...

On inverted yield curve: This article covers the types of yield curves, the likelihood and duration of inversions, the fundamental and technical drivers of inverted yield curve, the slope, comparison of

Inflation Expectations Why The Fed is Exercising Caution When Cutting Rates

A bonus section recounting the history of unanchored IE is also included : open.substack.com/pub/eightate...

#EconSky

Primers on monetary policy (no paywall):

On inflation expectations: This article covers the measurements of inflation expectations (IE), the formation of IE, the anchoring of IE, interaction between IE and inflation persistence, as well as how the policymaker manages IE.

I’m currently watching the American version of Ghosts, it’s funny

#EconSky

markets, such as meme stocks, exemplifies this.

Additionally, the wealth effect may hinder the achievement of the Fed's 2% inflation target. Overall, these factors advocate for a cautious approach to monetary policy.

exuberance, potentially leading to asset bubbles and financial instability. Although some projections suggest the continuation of the bull market, the risk of escalating speculation through cheaper borrowing remains a significant concern. Recent speculative behaviour in

conditions looser than the historical average. This easing trend has persisted since April. Consequently, there is no urgent need for the Fed to reduce rates, as market dynamics are already alleviating pressures.

Furthermore, premature rate cuts, intended as insurance, could intensify market

The chart illustrates that US financial conditions are easing even in the absence of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. For example, the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) registered at -0.55 for the week ending 18 July 2025, a figure below zero that indicates

I think so too bsky.app/profile/amni...

#EconSky

US financial conditions // trend: loosening

forward (mis)guidance

O, that more would shake their heads in bold defiance of grim tyranny

Nvidia AI chips worth $1bn smuggled to China after Trump export controls Roaring black market for US semiconductors operates despite efforts to curb Beijing’s high-tech ambitions

on.ft.com/3IKnng0 Nvidia AI chips worth $1bn smuggled to China after Trump export controls

Trump tariff troubles, canned version Whoever smelt it dealt it

on.ft.com/4mbdhmX Trump tariff troubles, canned version