@pinebrookcap.bsky.social
https://www.pinebrookcap.com
2 years and 165 posts later. 👇
The good the bad and the ugly. With embedded links and paywalls removed.
www.pinebrookcap.com/p/anniversar...
2 years and 165 posts later. 👇
The good the bad and the ugly. With embedded links and paywalls removed.
www.pinebrookcap.com/p/anniversar...
@ljkawa.bsky.social @michaelsantoli.bsky.social @nosunkcosts.bsky.social @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social @ivanthek.bsky.social @pinebrookcap.bsky.social @nicholasabrown.bsky.social @emcreditfund.bsky.social @bancsutherland.bsky.social etc
14.08.2025 17:03 — 👍 10 🔁 1 💬 3 📌 0
From behind the paywall.
18.08.2025 13:34 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Follow up note on the labor market after my discussion with @econberger.bsky.social
www.pinebrookcap.com/p/us-economi...
Why do you say that? Earnings and margins are the best real time productivity indicator and they are on fire.
18.08.2025 13:33 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Dm me and I will comp you a sub.
18.08.2025 13:32 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
This was my view back on May 11th and still my view now.
The narrow window for a cut was in June.
Oh see that 6500? 😂
Lots of free degen content here.
www.pinebrookcap.com/p/market-com...
Dave Cervantes (@pinebrookcap.bsky.social ) is one of my fave people on FinTwit, and we've had an offline and ongoing conversation about macro for quite some time. (He can confirm how often I'm wrong.)
Nice to share some of that convo with the rest of you!
www.pinebrookcap.com/p/guy-berger...
Been a while since I’ve shown my face here. want to share a link of a podcast I did with @econberger.bsky.social where he shares his views on the current state of the U.S. labor market.
No paywall!
www.pinebrookcap.com/p/guy-berger...
Maybe this will persist due to regime change.
Maybe they get more stretched and stay there.
But the money tree roulette table doesn’t always work in one direction unless the game has changed.
Maybe it has. But so far it’s just politicians talking.
/FIN
Now. Here is the crazy thing. These things are looking stretched.
China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.
Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
This is how are those pairs are doing today on a price basis, not inclusive of borrow costs or dividends.
18.03.2025 16:44 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
And then China.
18.03.2025 16:44 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
This exercise was repeated a few days later with Europe and Japan (IEUR EWJ DXJ).
18.03.2025 16:44 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
I think the key insight was in contextualizing the outperformance vs the foreign selloff of Q4 2024, using a 100d rolling average, with the following conclusion.
18.03.2025 16:44 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Lots of folks very excited about the foreign vs USA trades, which has been a home run YTD.
This was explored in the newsletter back in Feb, and published on 2/19 the day SPX made its local peak.
www.pinebrookcap.com/p/market-com...
Surgery went very well yesterday, and I’m feeling good today (and it’s birthday 49 🎉). One more big step toward cancer free! ❤️
13.03.2025 11:14 — 👍 1551 🔁 21 💬 135 📌 3
Date 1d % Chg 1m Later 7/24/2024 -12.33 -2.47 9/8/2020 -21.06 28.80 3/18/2020 -16.03 108.71 3/16/2020 -18.58 63.98 3/9/2020 -13.57 -10.29 2/27/2020 -12.81 -24.25 2/5/2020 -17.18 -4.25 7/25/2019 -13.61 -7.61 1/18/2019 -12.97 0.10 9/28/2018 -13.90 26.47 11/6/2013 -14.51 -9.13 7/16/2013 -14.31 27.80 1/13/2012 -19.33 45.55 12/27/2010 -15.09 -3.13 7/6/2010 -16.09 31.96 7/2/2010 -12.57 14.32
TSLA moving fast but as of a few minutes ago was down 12.25%. Here are worse performances in the history of the stock and where it was a month later.
10.03.2025 16:48 — 👍 86 🔁 5 💬 21 📌 0did he fail to pay some bills on time
10.03.2025 16:52 — 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0Good reminder that I should spend more time here.
That other place has gotten so toxic and gross.
Is it me or is twitter malfunctioning?
10.03.2025 15:37 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 1😂
27.12.2024 15:21 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
This and other goodies in here. Get after it.
www.pinebrookcap.com/p/weekly-sig...
Trash spreads inform us that the pricing of the lowest and riskiest credits within the investment grade and high yield universe has actually IMPROVED.
Now ask yourself why that would happen if growth and inflation were going to fall apart?
Credit markets don’t think growth or inflation will go off the rails.
Trash spreads in IG and HY have actually improved a smidgen since December 4th.
The good news is we can triangulate growth and inflation using other mkt instruments.
26.12.2024 17:32 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Other than inflation and growth, no one REALLY knows. It’s guess work and opinion, and mutual sharing of these views by participants.
26.12.2024 17:32 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
