Robb Smith

Campaign Journal: Mamdani looks strong in latest polls October 30, 2025

Early vote and new polls provide Mamdani campaign with good news.

open.substack.com/pub/moeblog/...

The 42M people on SNAP represents about 12% of the US population, nearly identical to poverty rate (11%). Folks are on food stamps because they are poor. And many of them work. If employers like Walmart offered decent wages and benefits there would be fewer people needing SNAP & Medicaid benefits.

There is nothing in the Constitution that requires a signature of anything for a pardon to be effective.

Campaign Journal: Is Cuomo closing the gap? October 28, 2025

Looking at early voting numbers and the latest polling in the NYC mayor's race.

open.substack.com/pub/moeblog/...

Bill Melugin @BillMelugin_ BREAKING: Per four senior DHS & Trump admin sources, a mass removal of ICE leadership around the country is underway, with up to 12 ICE field office chiefs being removed & reassigned in an effort to increase deportation numbers. I'm told the move is spearheaded by Corey Lewandowski, and a handful of the ICE Chiefs will likely be replaced by Border Patrol & CBP officials, some of whom will be hand-picked by aggressive & controversial Border Patrol Commander Greg Bovino. I'm told some of the ICE leadership removed from their positions include the ICE Field Office Directors in: - Los Angeles - Phoenix - Philadelphia - Denver - El Paso - San Diego - Seattle/Portland - New Orleans Border Patrol officials taking over ICE leadership positions would be extremely significant, as Border Patrol and ICE do different things, and I've done numerous ride-alongs/embeds with both.

Generally speaking, ICE typically conducts very targeted operations, largely going after criminal illegal aliens or those with deportation orders, but almost always knowing who they are targeting for arrest, often conducting surveillance to learn their schedules before and waiting hours before arresting them if needed. Border Patrol, under Trump 2.0, while sometimes doing their own targeted operations, has been extremely aggressive and has been at the forefront of some of the most controversial immigration enforcement operations we've seen so far, carrying out roving patrols in Los Angeles, Chicago, etc, often at Home Depot, car washes, flea markets etc, leading to a handful of federal judges around the country issuing injunctions against them. A majority of the viral videos you see online are Border Patrol agents, including the use of a Trojan horse style Penske moving truck at a Los Angeles Home Depot, an operation organized by Bovino. ICE often gets blamed for what Border Patrol does, as the media and activists often cannot tell the difference between federal agents, and everyone is called "ICE". I'm told there are growing concerns about the political and PR fallout associated with some of the roving patrols Border Patrol is conducting as lawsuits continue to stack up and mid-terms approach next year.

I'm told there is significant friction within different wings of DHS and the administration, with Border Czar Tom Homan & ICE Director Todd Lyons preferring to prioritize targeting criminal aliens & the "worst of the worst" or those with deportation orders, while DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, Corey Lewandowski, and BP Commander Bovino prefer to use aggressive tactics to arrest anyone in the US illegally, including but not limited to criminals, to ramp up deportation numbers and achieve President Trump's promises of mass deportations. I am hearing from both sides of this friction. One senior DHS official tells me: "ICE started with the worst of the worst, knowing every target they are hitting, but since Border Patrol started in LA in June, we've (DHS) lost our focus, going too hard, too fast, with limited prioritization. It's getting numbers, but at what cost?". Border Patrol agents I've talked to defend their tactics, with one telling me: "What did everyone think mass deportations meant? Only the worst? Tom Homan has said it himself, anyone in the US illegally is on the table."

It's quite a situation, as both sides of this are on the same team, with the same end goals, but different perspectives on how to get there. Another DHS official confirmed the personnel changes to me on deep background, adding that the moves are based on performance and doing what is needed to achieve the best results. Official statement to @FoxNews via @TriciaOhio : "While we have no personnel changes to announce at this time, the Trump Administration remains laser focused on delivering results and removing violent criminal illegal aliens from this country." 7:57 PM · Oct 27, 2025 · 29.6K Views

🚨BIG changes happening -- ICE leadership is being purged tonight. The old guard, which prioritized targeted enforcement operations aimed at people with criminal records, is being replaced with Border Patrol and Gregory Bovino's "Midway Blitz" style.

Think things are bad now? It'll get worse.

Texas Sues Tylenol Makers, Claiming They Hid Autism Risks

Performative politics here from Ken Paxton. Beyond whatever political points he thinks he will score, Paxton must think J&J are as craven as @cbsnews.com & will just cave in out of fear. This case shouldn't make it past a MSJ. J&J should sue Texas for defamation.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/h...

It is, but Bannon is telling Trump that this only applies to the original qualifications for the office. It's BS, but so was the president having immunity from prosecution for committing crimes while in office.

If only Obama would actually do something rather than wag his finger & tell people we'll get past this. This suggestion would be an actual contribution to combatting the erosion of democratic norms. So far, he hasn't acted like he cares that much.

The "theory" is that the prohibition on more than 2 terms in the 22nd Amendment does not create a new qualification to become pres. (which it most definitely does) & that the VP only needs to satisfy the original qualifications for being president. It is complete & utter BS, legally & historically.

He is not allowed to do that. One has to be eligible to president to be vice president, and the 22nd Amendment created a new criteria for being president: that one has not previously served more than one term as president.

the democratic party’s basic problem is it has almost no control over how its message reaches the ears of voters, especially outside of presidential election years. but rather than devote serious time, attention and cash to that problem its consultants and pundits want to fight factional battles

Cuomo had the nerve today to say that he is the anti-oligarchy candidate and that Mamdani is the oligarch who stole his message. Cuomo is about one thing besides himself (and he mostly is about himself): doing whatever people with money want him to do.

It's only a matter of time before they start shooting live rounds at protestors. Be careful out there, comrades!

This video from Portland is a metaphor for what is going on in America. ICE trying so hard to get Americans to cross a line and if they don't, dragging them across the line and violently attacking.

Bernie, Zohran and AOC on stage.

Thank you, New York City.

Now let’s win.

Campaign Journal: Mamdani with one week out October 27, 2025

First report on the campaign since I arrived.

open.substack.com/pub/moeblog/...

In today's edition of Too Little, Too Late:

“House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries teased a public endorsement in the hotly contested New York City mayor’s race in coming days, praising Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s commitment to leaving the current police commissioner in place.” - Bloomberg

Eric Adams Will Endorse Andrew Cuomo for Mayor

Uh-oh. The guy who got his bribery case dropped in exchange for helping deport New Yorkers is endorsing the guy who had to resign the governorship for sexually harassing a dozen women. I guess the socialist guy who is running 20 points in the lead is in trouble now.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/23/n...

Some new ICE recruits have shown up to training without full vetting The recruits have had criminal backgrounds or failed drug tests or were unable to meet physical or academic standards, raising concerns about the agency’s rush to hire immigration officers, sources to...

NBC News finds that:
-- ICE has shortened its training from 13 weeks to six.
-- Nearly half of recruits couldn’t pass an open-book written exam.
-- Recruits "are supposed to attest" they can pass the physical-fitness test, which requires them to run ... 6 mph.

www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...

What is going on in Maine? October 23, 2025

Are Democratic voters just forgiving these days or is something else going on?

open.substack.com/pub/moeblog/...

I spoke to @dahlialithwick.bsky.social the morning after my oral argument in Louisiana v. Callais. It was all still a blur, but, I do recall having the best belly laugh in a long time with Dahlia just before we got into the serious stuff. Have a listen.

What is wrong with @nytimes.com? The protests yesterday were the largest in history and they buried the story inside the paper. I have been a subscriber for many years, but finally I am considering unsubscribing over this. It’s BS accommodation to a fascist adminstration.

She is a complete idiot. The only thing she cares about is making money for herself.

16 is minimum for a quorum. An indictment needs a majority of those present as long as quorum exists. We have to assume they had a quorum, which means the vote to indict was at least 14-2 and could have been 14-9 (since the total number of grand jury members is 23).

I'm a graduate of Punk Rock University.
(I'm the airborne guy with the bass)
As kids we organized our own shows, put out records, toured by sleeping in punk squats.
We sang about fighting fascism and racism.
Now it is here.
This is what Joe Strummer trained us for.
I'm ready.

There are credible reports that federal agents may be replaying the 2020 playbook and surging into Portland with the goal of provoking conflict and violence in my hometown. I am in close contact with state and local officials to monitor this activity.

if Jimmy Kimmel's political humor is too hot for you to handle, I'm not sure "snowflake" even cuts it as a term of derision for the level of fragility you've achieved

What a decent president does is attempt to de-escalate political tension to avoid violence. We have the other kind of president.

Tax incentives are innovative? That’s all Dems have been doing for 30 years. And they absolutely do not work for anyone but rich people.

She also testified under oath that she saw no wrongdoing by Epstein.